South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Beast of Plympton]

Joe B also predicted that Arctic summer ice extent would recover two years ago; instead 2012 broke the 2007s record melt by a large margin. There is a debate whether global temps continue to rise or have stalled, however even the sceptics are not claiming that global temps have fallen. As for our winters, my guess would be that low solar activity has been a major factor in regards colder and snowier northern hemisphere winters, nor should we rule out a change of weather patterns influenced by the rise in global temps just the sort of thing that can happen when you meddle with things you don’t understand. Natural variations and mans impact combined.

Very true, I saw a documentry recently that claimed global warming can have a negative effect on our winters. This may be happening, but who knows. I always keep an open mind.

[Schmalex]

Yet, we've had less than a dozen frost here in North Hampshire all winter.

I do hope it would either get cold and snow hard now, or 9I$$ off and warm up. It feels like its been 3c and grey for weeks now

Edited March 21, 2013 by Schmalex

[Bristawl Si]

Just viewed latest weather on bbc news24 and it dont look great for our region.

The snowline, even on Saturday, is no further south than Birmingham or EAnglia.

Looks like a no-no for us.

I'm sure last night in the mad disc thread one of the big 'players' was forecasting it would get as far south as Bristol.

[SilverWolf]

Interesting points made about global warming. Climate constantly changes, and although I know that we should use better sources of energy, reduce pollution, restrict the use of man made chemicals etc I'm not convinced about global warming caused by us. How much CO2 does does a large volcanic eruption produce compared to us annually? And why's it getting colder for

longer each winter? In the late eighties we were

told we'd have successful vineyards all over England by now...

[Mapantz]

I'm starting to wish the netweather radar didn't get changed now ..

There's still bugs in the desktop version, the mobile version is not working correctly and it absolutely rapes the battery on my phone. I had no problems with viewing the old one on my phone.

[AWD]

From Ian;

"expect a tricky forecasting mix of rain, sleet & snow by v early Sat across Glos (esp Cotswolds) and perhaps down to M4."

[Beast of Plympton]

Interesting points made about global warming. Climate constantly changes, and although I know that we should use better sources of energy, reduce pollution, restrict the use of man made chemicals etc I'm not convinced about global warming caused by us. How much CO2 does does a large volcanic eruption produce compared to us annually? And why's it getting colder for

longer each winter? In the late eighties we were

told we'd have successful vineyards all over England by now...

Very interesting and good point. The eruption of Mt. Saint Helens pumped an enormous amout of CO2 into the atmosphere when it erupted, and some argue more than we have pumped in since this eruption. I just think more data is needed either way before we can say for definate that we are causing the planet warm or not.

[weather eater]

Interesting points made about global warming. Climate constantly changes, and although I know that we should use better sources of energy, reduce pollution, restrict the use of man made chemicals etc I'm not convinced about global warming caused by us. How much CO2 does does a large volcanic eruption produce compared to us annually? And why's it getting colder for

longer each winter? In the late eighties we were

told we'd have successful vineyards all over England by now...

just from a quick seach

http://www.skeptical...bal-warming.htm

As for the 80s simple we have a better understanding of climate now

And is it getting colder for longer, well it is this year, but most years we have seen if anything, early and warm springs rather than

longer winters, indeed I would sum up recent years as colder winters, warmer

early springs and wet average summers.

Edited March 21, 2013 by weather eater

[SilverWolf]

just from a quick seach

http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htm

As for the 80s simple we have a better understanding of climate now

Thanks for the link, interesting.

[Karl83]

From Ian;

"expect a tricky forecasting mix of rain, sleet & snow by v early Sat across Glos (esp Cotswolds) and perhaps down to M4."

Good evening all. Interesting AWD - I can see the M4 from my window so maybe I will be lucky. I'm probably a 5 minute walk away and can see Winterbourne from here. Fingers crossed.

[Bristawl Si]

Chucking it down with rain here - lashing against the window at times - Spring has arrived!

Oh...and the heating clicked off 30 mins ago.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Evening thunder]

Just found this.

http://www.telegraph...ni-ice-age.html

Now I am well aware that this may spark debate. But lets face it, the government makes a lot of money from "global warming" and it also validates the grants that scientists get from governments.

I listened to a radio show once with a scientist that truly believes that we are very close to a mini ice age and he made a very profound statement, which was "why human kind are so arrogant that we believe that we have any control over mother nature is beyond me, if she wants to destroy us, she will do it perfectly well on her own". Thought it was an interesting remark!!

I do not rate Peirs Corbyn, but sometimes he makes a valid point!! Just thought I would post this as it is interesting that a conservative, the most famous of all, is the author of the article!!

Interesting, in my opinion we are/will cause an effect to climate, details not likely to be known. CO2 is very closely tied to temperature, and global CO2 concentrations are rapidly rising very likely due to human activity, so global temps are very likely to rise even if it isn't down to us.

I do think the sun will have an effect though, probably causing a slowing in the rate of warming, as well as altered weather patterns perhaps like recent winters/summers. Some like that article says the sun is a much more powerful influence. Of course it is, without it earth would get so cold the atmosphere would freeze out onto it's surface I believe, but if it's still there largely unchanged, and you add more greenhouse gas, we will generally warm.

In the longer term what's interesting is that the last 10,000 years are pretty unique in their stability in the last 500,000 years at least. before this you had repeated switching on/off and fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (what drives the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift and all that) due to influxes of fresh melt water (from either melting from warming such as those driven my Milankovitch Cycles or collapses of ice shelves), which drove rapid climate fluctuations. In some cases it may only have taken decades for global temps to drop around 10C! It is possible that in the future if the world warms a few degrees this could reoccur due to Greenland melt water, throwing us into a cooler climate. This happened at the start of this interglacial period due to meltwater from the North American ice sheet.

Some may use this to say rapid changes occur anyway and it's probably not us causing it, but I don't really believe that, everything is interlinked, including what we do to the system.

Hope I haven't gone a bit too technical there lol, just my take on things.

But what annoyed me, if anything, is for Boris to say that and hold Piers in such high regard!

I think the London Congestion charge is to reduce air pollution which is very much a man made issue

Relating to an earlier post humans activities emit somewhere around 135 times as much CO2 as volcanoes each year, even if it was the same amount or less the total amount emitted would change so the equilibrium of CO2 climate forcing would shift. Edit: I see I was beaten to it.

On a more appropriate subject at home in east Devon there has been 23.6mm of rain so far, so approaching the wettest day of the year so far which was the 18th Jan at 24.4mm - Ironically, when snow warnings were covering much of the region! though some of it was sleet/wet snow and the hills had a fair bit but not in the valley.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Stormmad26

[dec10snow]

Very true, I saw a documentry recently that claimed global warming can have a negative effect on our winters. This may be happening, but who knows. I always keep an open mind.

Yep, could be due to the arctic ice melt causing colder waters around our shores, and therefore colder in general, but honestly, who knows!!

[Beast of Plympton]

Interesting, in my opinion we are/will cause an effect to climate, details not likely to be known. CO2 is very closely tied to temperature, and global CO2 concentrations are rapidly rising very likely due to human activity, so global temps are very likely to rise even if it isn't down to us.

I do think the sun will have an effect though, possibly causing a slowing in the rate of warming. some like that article says the sun is a much more powerful influence. Of course it is, without it earth would get so cold the atmosphere would freeze out onto it's surface I believe, but if it's still there largely unchanged, and you add more greenhouse gas, we will generally warm.

In the longer term what's interesting is that the last 10,000 years are pretty unique in their stability in the last 500,000 years at least. before this you had repeated switching on/off and fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (what drives the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift and all that) due to influxes of fresh melt water (from either melting from warming such as those driven my Milankovitch Cycles or collapses of ice shelves), which drove rapid climate fluctuations. In some cases it may only have taken decades for global temps to drop around 10C! It is possible that in the future if the world warms a few degrees this could reoccur due to Greenland melt water, throwing us into a cooler climate. This happened at the start of this interglacial period due to meltwater from the North American ice sheet.

Some may use this to say rapid changes occur anyway and it's probably not us causing it, but I don't really believe that, everything is interlinked, including what we do to the system.

Hope I haven't gone a bit too technical there lol, just my take on things.

But what annoyed me, if anything, is for Boris to say that and hold Piers in such high regard!

I think the London Congestion charge is to reduce air pollution which is very much a man made issue

Relating to an earlier post humans activities emit somewhere around 135 times as much CO2 as volcanoes each year, even if it was the same amount or less the total amount emitted would change so the equilibrium of CO2 climate forcing would shift.

On a more appropriate subject at home in east Devon there has been 23.6mm of rain so far, so approaching the wettest day of the year so far which was the 18th Jan at 24.4mm - Ironically, when snow warnings were covering much of the region! though some of it was sleet/wet snow and the hills had a fair bit but not in the valley.

Thanks for your reply Stormmad. The reason I post that, was to put a different perspective on climate change as I said, however it is great to get the views of the learned people on here. I am very interested in the weather and climate, mostly because it is largely out of our control and that fascinates me, but I am still very amateur and am keen to learn!! Thank you for the post sir!! Right, dinner, done and now time for the pub. Going to get very wet on the way!!

Edited March 21, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Guys Iv just took a drive to the shop to met by heavy sleet, by the time Iv for back home it's wet snow , not shuds of wet slush !! Proper snow , but very wet , it's on the turn , not sure what this means but it has to bode well surely !?

[Nights King]

Guys Iv just took a drive to the shop to met by heavy sleet, by the time Iv for back home it's wet snow , not shuds of wet slush !! Proper snow , but very wet , it's on the turn , not sure what this means but it has to bode well surely !?

Lucky you I think you aregoing to be well placed to be fair!

I see talk of record amounts of snowy days in mod thread blah blah but so far this march has not beaten the last few marchs here as I have yet to get a snow cover day come on nudge the ppn south west please! NAE out soon only half hour ish.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Lucky you I think you aregoing to be well placed to be fair!

I see talk of record amounts of snowy days in mod thread blah blah but so far this march has not beaten the last few marchs here as I have yet to get a snow cover day come on nudge the ppn south west please! NAE out soon only half hour ish.

It all depends on how far north the 850hpa 0c makes it , if it comes past me , it will be rain , if its stays south then I have a chance , but tomorrow night should be good for more of us !

[Polar Bear]

It all depends on how far north the 850hpa 0c makes it , if it comes past me , it will be rain , if its stays south then I have a chance , but tomorrow night should be good for more of us !

All sounds very promising ssib.. All eyes to the sky and lamposts. Although my ears are telling me by the pitter patter in my sheltered window we have plenty of rain currently falling in newbury. I am on mobile so can't see where you are located in your post. I hope though slightly south of me....

[Evening thunder]

Thanks for your reply Stormmad. The reason I post that, was to put a different perspective on climate change as I said, however it is great to get the views of the learned people on here. I am very interested in the weather and climate, mostly because it is largely out of our control and that fascinates me, but I am still very amateur and am keen to learn!! Thank you for the post sir!! Right, dinner, done and now time for the pub. Going to get very wet on the way!!

Wow thanks, Obviously I am not the most knowledgeable person on the subject and could of course be wrong! Just had a module on this at Uni, especially longer term forcing, and found it quite fascinating, and also didn't realise the extent of dramatic climate fluctuations pre-10,000 years ago.

That is one thing that fascinates me about weather and climate too, free from human control even if there is unintentional climate alteration in the long term.

One thing that does annoy me however, is people linking individual events to climate change, and/or saying things like that didn't occur in the past. They did, and you can't usually link chaotic weather events to climate change.

Currently 25.6mm of rain at home, the wettest day of the year so far.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Mapantz]

The rain isn't as bad as i was expecting here, it'll be clear in a few hours.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

All sounds very promising ssib.. All eyes to the sky and lamposts. Although my ears are telling me by the pitter patter in my sheltered window we have plenty of rain currently falling in newbury. I am on mobile so can't see where you are located in your post. I hope though slightly south of me....

I'm 12 mile east of chelt , can confirm its proper snow now

[dec10snow]

I'm 12 mile east of chelt , can confirm its proper snow now

But at 700ft asl?

Edited March 21, 2013 by dec10snow

[BARRY]

The rain isn't as bad as i was expecting here, it'll be clear in a few hours.

thought that myself at 07:00 this morning had 14.2mm so far

[Barry Reynolds]

So what is everyone expecting, snow potential wise, next week when it does appear to get very cold here too? I know it's a long way off......

[Summer Sun]

It looks like a few gaps are starting to show now in Cornwall on the radar really feel for you lot after last years rain

Edited March 21, 2013 by Gavin.