South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/3/13 16z ------>

[Man With Beard]

Now, I know weather will be weather. But does anyone else get a little depressed when you see the snowfall accumulations map that the GFS has forecast??!! It literally cuts a snow line right at the start of the southwest!! Now this wouldn't be so bad if we were forecast to be dry and I wasn't having to cut up all the wood in my house to build a boat, however we are just going to get very, very wet!!

So to cheer me up, did I hear something about the possibility of a channel low next week or is that just wishful thinking??

Yes completely agree, in fact I was quite disappointed this morning to see the NAE put the snow within 20 miles of my backyard - I had been quite happy watching the midlands and north crew stress out on the MOD thread, safe in the knowledge that no snow would come here - and suddenly I've had a little carrot dangled which you just know is going to come to nothing but is enough to get you wondering!

Re: the channel low - I think this is a bit of a long shot really - don't see it on the model charts - it could happen if there is another undercut later next week but you'd only give it a 1 in 10 chance at the moment judging by GFS/ECM in my opinion

[karlos1983]

Karlos,

20-50cms of snow for wales tommorow, thats from the BBC weahter forecast just now. Better take a spade and supplies if I was you.

Noted,taking my Ford Ranger, don't think that will even help with 20-50cm though

[Radiating Dendrite]

Posted A minute ago

Tom Jarvis, on 21 March 2013 - 13:32 , said:

Jus to inform the forum bbc weather has been hacked

Maybe the forecasts will improve now then?

You nicked my joke!

Thief!

[Bristawl Si]

Not having any radar issues here on a laptop so are you guys using phones? My postcode has transferred from the original and

I prefer the zoom showing the wider area.

This initial front has barely moved NE in the last few hours, precip seems to be sliding along it rather than advancing.

Wouldn't it be funny if it defied ALL forecasts and stopped and slid back over our region, turning colder and dumped loads of snow! Just dreaming!

[noonoo418]

Wouldn't it be funny if it defied ALL forecasts and stopped and slid back over our region, turning colder and dumped loads of snow! Just dreaming!

Funny, Hilarious, what dreams are made of!! Wouldn't it be funny if I won £80 million tomorrow night?!

Here's hoping for both!!

[karlos1983]

Wouldn't it be funny if it defied ALL forecasts and stopped and slid back over our region, turning colder and dumped loads of snow! Just dreaming!

Oh my days, that would be almost as sweet as AFC winning the Chapions League and Premiership in the same season. on that basis, we may have to wait a while for that to happen

[Beast of Plympton]

Yes completely agree, in fact I was quite disappointed this morning to see the NAE put the snow within 20 miles of my backyard - I had been quite happy watching the midlands and north crew stress out on the MOD thread, safe in the knowledge that no snow would come here - and suddenly I've had a little carrot dangled which you just know is going to come to nothing but is enough to get you wondering!

Re: the channel low - I think this is a bit of a long shot really - don't see it on the model charts - it could happen if there is another undercut later next week but you'd only give it a 1 in 10 chance at the moment judging by GFS/ECM in my opinion

I fear the same thing. Next week looks like a non event now. But hey ho, never mind as we will have our day!!

Feel for you having the carrot dangles, it was so far away from me I knew it had no chance of getting here, albeit we had some transient snow this morning.

Went outside earlier and it really is horrible, cold rain.

[Mapantz]

I've just realised, the rain was forecasted to be coming in late afternoon here, by the BBC last night. It started raining at 7am. :o

[Beast of Plympton]

Wouldn't it be funny if it defied ALL forecasts and stopped and slid back over our region, turning colder and dumped loads of snow! Just dreaming!

Its what dreams are made of sir!!

[Joe Levy]

I fear the same thing. Next week looks like a non event now. But hey ho, never mind as we will have our day!!

Feel for you having the carrot dangles, it was so far away from me I knew it had no chance of getting here, albeit we had some transient snow this morning.

Went outside earlier and it really is horrible, cold rain.

Well in any case, we may well see some snow showers next week provided the air is unstable enough, and the uppers will be sufficiently cold that any precipitation is snow, especially with such low dew points.

[karlos1983]

Well in any case, we may well see some snow showers next week provided the air is unstable enough, and the uppers will be sufficiently cold that any precipitation is snow, especially with such low dew points.

I concur Joe, how many times have they said it will be a dry easterly and BOOM snow develops in an unstable pattern!!here's to hoping, then can we please have spring warmth!!

[karlos1983]

6.9mm of rain so far in Poole today, temp maxed out at 5.6C, now 5.2C with a DP of 4.7C and windchill of -0.6C =

[Joe Levy]

I concur Joe, how many times have they said it will be a dry easterly and BOOM snow develops in an unstable pattern!!here's to hoping, then can we please have spring warmth!!

To be honest, snow in these parts is a bonus at this time of year, so if I saw some falling snow next week I would be content! However I would obviously prefer to see large numbers of heavy snow showers being blown in off the English Channel, followed by a channel low and then more snow showers as it pulls away Yes and dry spring warmth, no more rain please haha!

[The Enforcer]

According to 00Z ECM South Oxfordshire can expect between 8 - 17 cms of snow Friday night into Saturday. I shall believe it when i see it.

I'd probably drive up north if I didn't have work. Just seen this from mod thread and I nearly choked!

Whole country except for us please tell me that snowline is tracking west also...

I never expected any snow in this locale from the fronts whilst they were tracking NE-ward, unless it's a non-marginal 'all snow' event, the milder air ingresses in a manner that the snow/rain line always seems to run across from Wales and then diagonally through Wark/Bucks into the far SE corner in these situations, as it has on several occasions this winter. However, as soon as it became clear that the polar continental air was going to push in, I wondered why there none of the models were showing snow appearing further south and west as the fronts are pushed away by the colder air in a southwestwards direction. The 06z NAE appears to be the first output to do this.

Edited March 21, 2013 by The Enforcer

[Beast of Plympton]

Well in any case, we may well see some snow showers next week provided the air is unstable enough, and the uppers will be sufficiently cold that any precipitation is snow, especially with such low dew points.

Sounds good!!

[Nights King]

Sounds good!!

Showers are little use this time of year with strengh of sun you need frontal snow really to get laying snow.

[Joe Levy]

Showers are little use this time of year with strengh of sun you need frontal snow really to get laying snow.

That's true, but if you get overnight frosts, and then frequent showers, you can get settling snow. Granted, it won't last long, but it's better than no snow at all in my opinion.

[Beast of Plympton]

Showers are little use this time of year with strengh of sun you need frontal snow really to get laying snow.

Agreed, be nice to at least to see it falling I reckon. Whats it like on your hill today Mulls??

[TwisterGirl81]

Then go back next door and take your snow with you!! Haha!! Just kidding.... hope you get lucky mate.

Lol....Oh I am looking forward to beautiful summers days in Devon & Corwall with our beautiful beaches.....I guess you've always got south end on sea!!! LOL

[TwisterGirl81]

GFS latest run saying snow in our region and lots of rain for you guys. Either way, a very interesting and potentially extreme weekend coming up for many, rain being a particular worry in the SW but who knows what we will get next door!!

Oh well I guess we have summer to look forward to and our beautiful beaches in Devon & Corwall....Don't worry though i've heard that Southend on Sea is, errrrrrm, 'nice' LOL!!!

[karlos1983]

Met Office has issued snow warning for Gloucestershire, just popped up on my twitter feed.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Met Office has issued snow warning for Gloucestershire, just popped up on my twitter feed.

It's not in the website , well it is for sat

[Bumpkin]

Not having any radar issues here on a laptop so are you guys using phones? My postcode has transferred from the original and

I prefer the zoom showing the wider area.

This initial front has barely moved NE in the last few hours, precip seems to be sliding along it rather than advancing.

The radar is working fine on my laptop too.

[karlos1983]

It's not in the website , well it is for sat

yes it's for Saturday. Be interesting to see if the North get some Red Warnings later this evening, i think 20-40cm probably justifies it personally, with risk to life quite possible.

[Beast of Plympton]

Oh well I guess we have summer to look forward to and our beautiful beaches in Devon & Corwall....Don't worry though i've heard that Southend on Sea is, errrrrrm, 'nice' LOL!!!

Indeed!! Or there is always Smegness....