Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[fergieweather]

Ahhhhh fair point Ian.....thanks for clearing that up.

I knew there would be a commercial aspect but I still feel a few more parameters could be made available to the amateurs like us.

Believe me, I've had this debate with them many times. But it's a matter for government to adjudicate on... not UKMO, who are fighting their corner in an increasingly competitive market. Witness the period 2 yrs back when they had to competitively tender against Metra and others for the BBC contract renewal...!!

[fergieweather]

P.S. apols mods as this strayed off model discussion, albeit hopefully worth the clarification re availability of UKMO model products etc.... ! Ta.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Believe me, I've had this debate with them many times. But it's a matter for government to adjudicate on... not UKMO, who are fighting their corner in an increasingly competitive market. Witness the period 2 yrs back when they had to competitively tender against Metra and others for the BBC contract renewal...!!

Obviously more complex a situation than I envisaged then!

[Captain Shortwave]

I would like to say the best of luck to all those who look to be in the firing line for friday/saturday's main event. Looks like some will get an absolute pasting from this. I shall stand from the sidelines cheers you guys in the midlands/wales/Northern England on with an umbrella (just in case something does fall from the sky here haha)

Beyond this we do look like developing a potential convective easterly which will turn more northerly for a time as low pressure develops over Scandinavia. And well then the possibility of something major after that

[Guest pjl20101]

Hows the 18Z ensembles going for the GFS folks? As I haven't seen any control mean posts tonight.

[peterf]

P.S. apols mods as this strayed off model discussion, albeit hopefully worth the clarification re availability of UKMO model products etc.... ! Ta.

Great insight thanks Ian.

[Panayiotis]

Hows the 18Z ensembles going for the GFS folks? As I haven't seen any control mean posts tonight.

Here are the ensembles for my area, suggests cold from the 25th to the 29th. But before that a lot of rain for S.Wales and the SW, (after for the SW possibly some further ppn Sunday as some members are hinting at it and along with -6C uppers it will probably fall as snow).

http://modeles.meteo...un=18&runpara=0

Edited March 21, 2013 by Panayiotis

[West Sussex Kate]

The last few years spring came early and the summers were terrible.

I hope that because spring is late this year it will mean a better summer.

[Guest pjl20101]

So in other words a situation where briefly we have north easterly wind it becomes lighter. I looked at the ecm tonight on TWO and looking very suspect for April with a possibility of a vicious spell of weather from Russia. It could all change, but currently an output that looks like groundhog day really and it may hearld a terrible start to April with possible snow. This GWO just isn't playing ball to give us proper spring weather currently.

Edited March 21, 2013 by pjl20101

[John_Griffiths]

PS Pretty much everyone I know at UKMO and BBC Weather just use MeteoGroup's WeatherPro app to get instant broad fix on EC site forecast comparison versus all the innumerable GFS-fed ones such as via Yahoo or whatever.

Sorry for taking this thread off course but it is not fair to say that the Yahoo weather app is "GFS-fed". The forecast for the App is generated by us at the Weather Channel and in recent years it often uses more ECMWF than GFS as we have a choice as to which model to use. It is also edited by forecasters such as myself, although granted we don't always get it right.

We pay a considerable sum of money to the ECMWF for full access to their model data, just as Meteogroup do.

Thanks, John

Edited March 21, 2013 by John_Griffiths

[winterof79]

I feel come the period in question then Derbyshire would be my N limit. When it comes to these synoptic situations it isn't just how far N the front will get but also E. This is why locations such as NE England, Humber, Lincs, E Anglia are unlikely to see great amounts of precip.

I have highlighted the area below where I feel the greatest snowfall amounts will occur.

Thanks for the clarification mate.However south and west yorkshire are within your boundaries

Edited March 21, 2013 by winterof79

[Matty M]

Folks the NAE 0z continues trend south. NI is in serious trouble. Incredible figures possible.

[winterof79]

Fantastic 96 and120 chart for a strong e/n/e flow

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032100/ECM1-96.GIF?21-12

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032100/ECM1-120.GIF?21-12 UKMO virtually identical.

[winterof79]

Central and Northern parts of England in for serious snowfall as well as North Midlands

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/03/21/basis00/ukuk/prty/13032300_2100.gif

Southward correction or not.

Forecast for this region

Friday:

Light, locally moderate snow and blizzard conditions, mainly south of the region, giving significant accumulations over hills, but perhaps falling as rain or sleet near some eastern coasts. Maximum Temperature 2 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Heavy snow and blizzards continuing through much of Saturday, slowly dying out during Sunday. Monday is mostly dry with some sunshine. Very cold and windy throughout.

Issued at: 0400 on Thu 21 Mar 2013

[Liam J]

Looks like a slight shift back N&E from the NAE compared to the last run. The front making inroads into Central Scotland by 00z Saturday. A memorable event coming up and a very rare one for this time in March!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201303210000&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=0&INFO=0&WMO=

[Nigel Langton]

The metogram for Birmingham shows snow starting midnight and lasting till Sunday apart from some sleet during Friday. Link below

http://www.yr.no/pla...m/meteogram.png

Coventry simular

www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Coventry/meteogram.png

Notts

http://www.yr.no/pla...m/meteogram.png

Warwick a little more rain/sleet but still mainly snow

http://www.yr.no/pla...ur_by_hour.html

Matt Hugo really rates the metogram or has done this winter.

Still very marginal but hopefully we could be on verge of major snow.

Click on a link and the search for your area. This is a good tool for people like me who struggle to read charts and just want to know of it will snow what time and how much. Enjoy.

[winterof79]

We are about to experience an old style attempted breakdown which fails and leaves us in freezing conditions with copious amounts of snow on the deck

http://www.meteociel...0-120.GIF?21-12

That IS classcic 70s style and beats the slushy rainfest we generally have to endure.Enjoy folks

Edited March 21, 2013 by winterof79

[Guest pjl20101]

Think that any warm up now will be in line with the control output. The crumb of comfort now will be the AO and it hit rock bottom, but now is gonna have a recovery and it may herald in atmospheric changes.

[Matty M]

Looks like a slight shift back N&E from the NAE compared to the last run. The front making inroads into Central Scotland by 00z Saturday. A memorable event coming up and a very rare one for this time in March!

http://www.weatheron...P=0&INFO=0&WMO=

To my eye, the front IS ever slightly further south and west compared to the 18z, particularly over the northern section of the front.

0z at 42hrs

18z at 48hrs

The temperature profile backs this up also.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Matty M

[snowice]

^{No change still super cold -8 uppers}

[TEITS]

If the fax charts are right which in my opinion are subject to change then some locations are going to get battered!

First occluded front moves in and brings snow to N England and possibly N Wales, Midlands.

Becomes stationary and weakens.

Another occluded front moves NE with this becoming stationary further S and is more likely to bring snow than rain for those further S.

Moves back SW but probably weak by this time.

What this all suggests to me is very severe conditions are possible with blizzards in places and because of the slow moving nature of the fronts then snow accumulations will cause problems. This initially for N England but even further S the rain would turn to snow.

[SMU]

Morning the models continue to push south, the t54 gfs ppn shows the stall line now alligned

Devon up to se Ireland and the eastern extent

Suffolk up to liverpool,

So in a matter of 12 hours we have lost southern scotland, parts of yorks and linc and now the corner of EA....

Poss time for shifts but thats wheres its sat. Also more pulses of snow into the SE at t 78-90

ECM + UKMO are very similar...

S

[mushymanrob]

viewing this mornings outputs, im not sure why theres much excitement. sure some places will get a dumping (and ironically im in line... anybody wanna swap? lol), but at lower levels it will most likely be slushy, temps are still above 0c even in precip. so the south looks like missing out, getting just rain, maybe some back edge snow later on saturday. the far north northeast misses the main event but could get showers. sunday - tuesday looks overcast, raw, bitter cold in a strong easterly ... now who actually would like that?

the wind looks like dropping midweek, that should make the cloud break, sunnier days, frostier nights.

the next atlantic attack looks set for a repeat, late next week. the gfs still suggests that this one 'wins', the ecm suggests another slider. easter looks wet and windy, no chance of a settled sunny dry one, the only question really is will it be warmer precip, or colder precip/snow.

[TEITS]

viewing this mornings outputs, im not sure why theres much excitement. sure some places will get a dumping (and ironically im in line... anybody wanna swap? lol), but at lower levels it will most likely be slushy, temps are still above 0c even in precip. so the south looks like missing out, getting just rain, maybe some back edge snow later on saturday. the far north northeast misses the main event but could get showers. sunday - tuesday looks overcast, raw, bitter cold in a strong easterly ... now who actually would like that?

Are you sure about that Mushy!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs604.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs608.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs602.gif

[NorthernRab]

viewing this mornings outputs, im not sure why theres much excitement.

Because not everyone lives in the south of England? In places like Northern Ireland and the north of England / NW Midlands, this could be by far the best fall of the winter.

Not to mention the fact that next week could see some very low overnight minima, how often do we see the UK's lowest overnight minimum temperature for winter at the end of March?