Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[shaky]

Shaky, i thing there should be a swear box for everytime you say 'Midlands'

Cold air is flooding back in on the 18z, Sunday is a day of Snow showers for the South with perhaps something more persistant moving into the SE ...

Sorry man i been waiting years for a good snow event and i just want this one to hit the midlands full on!!

[winterof79]

Yep and to be honest it isn't a surprise.

Interesting to watch this unfold because I am happy to put my experience of similar situations to those of say the Met O who are using the models. Like I said earlier I would be totally amazed if the snow manages to reach as far N as S Scotland. I even feel parts of S Yorks may miss out and further corrections S cannot be ruled out.

I will add my fellow members in E Anglia should refrain from getting excited also because historically the precip tends to be very weak and patchy across this region.

So basically you are forecasting no further than Derbyshire.......brave boy and against what Exeter are discussing according to Ian.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032018/gfs-1-126.png?18

Lol 26th of March- all of the UK under -11c

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1292.gif

Snow showers penetrating west

S

[Ice Day]

This is scarcely believable; -10 uppers across 90% of the UK

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ruddy Nora

[Jason M]

Yep and to be honest it isn't a surprise.

Interesting to watch this unfold because I am happy to put my experience of similar situations to those of say the Met O who are using the models. Like I said earlier I would be totally amazed if the snow manages to reach as far N as S Scotland. I even feel parts of S Yorks may miss out and further corrections S cannot be ruled out.

I will add my fellow members in E Anglia should refrain from getting excited also because historically the precip tends to be very weak and patchy across this region.

The other issue is also that some places coud see the snowfall equiv of 20cm fall, but end up with hardly any settling. Already had a few such events this year. Tend to agree with you and Steve re southwards tweaks though. More to come I suspect!

Jason

[snowice]

Some heavy snow for NI

we miss again by 80 miles?

[SMU]

^{http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/}gfs^{/runs/2013032018/}gfs^{-3-138.png?18}

^{518-520 thicknesses just getting onto EA is remarkable for late march.}

^S

[peterf]

^{http://modeles.meteo...fs-3-138.png?18}

^{518-520 thicknesses just getting onto EA is remarkable for late march.}

^S

Steve why do you make your print small at times?

it's very difficult for us visually impaired to read.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I have a feeling there will be a northerly coming with the reinforcing of a greeny high , may be wrong but looks like it wants to reload

[Cheshire Freeze]

Love, get the thick tog out will you.....

[Tim Bland]

So 18z raw NAE is a good shift south with snow likely anywhere north of m4. Disappointing for the north east and Scotland as the front never makes it

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

[Ian Brown]

^{http://modeles.meteo...fs-3-138.png?18}

^{518-520 thicknesses just getting onto EA is remarkable for late march.}

^S

That is pretty exceptional, and I would suggest we will go a long time for comparable charts again in late March.

[fergieweather]

I don't thing its wise, ever, to totally ignore a NWP that is readily used.

Yes the NAE is flip-flopping but it's sol. tonight has to be considered with every other model output. It is not like it is completely anomalous anyway.

Upstream sampling issues and mismatch so quite rightly been totally modified.

I've heard enough in last 15 mins that I'm not going beyond Thurs eve in my forecast shortly. No way.

It's been a long day...

[LomondSnowstorm]

I have a feeling there will be a northerly coming with the reinforcing of a greeny high , may be wrong but looks like it wants to reload

Looks that way to me too:

If you were to just look at this chart without the date you'd have no reason to believe that any milder weather was on the cards in the next ten-twelve days or that it's five days from the start of April.

[peterf]

So 18z raw NAE is a good shift south with snow likely anywhere north of m4. Disappointing for the north east and Scotland as the front never makes it

http://www.weatheron...=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

it would be if you believed that chart i agree.

[Bristawl Si]

Upstream sampling issues and mismatch so quite rightly been totally modified.

I've heard enough in last 15 mins that I'm not going beyond Thurs eve in my forecast shortly. No way.

It's been a long day...

Ooh...that's a tease Ian.

So, Friday and Saturday for our area is still up in the air then?

[Panayiotis]

Upstream sampling issues and mismatch so quite rightly been totally modified.

I've heard enough in last 15 mins that I'm not going beyond Thurs eve in my forecast shortly. No way.

It's been a long day...

Have a rest Ian, you have helped us a lot today with your updates. Hopefully you can keep us updated further over the next couple of days!

Thanks

Edited March 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS sniffing the potential for another snowfall later next week. Ignore specifics though at this range as energy distribution will be off!

[Tim Bland]

Upstream sampling issues and mismatch so quite rightly been totally modified.

I've heard enough in last 15 mins that I'm not going beyond Thurs eve in my forecast shortly. No way.

It's been a long day...

Not brave enough to call just rain for the SW then? Could be a big move south coming ?

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS sniffing the potential for another snowfall later next week. Ignore specifics though at this range as energy distribution will be off!

Yep, GFS heading toward the ECM solution, this cold spell could really be something special. Funny considering it's almost the end of march

[Panayiotis]

Definite trend south of the colder uppers on the NAVGEM, this is the further north the 0C line goes (at 48hrs):

Edited March 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mair Snaw]

Time to tune into your local BBC weather forecast..... fingers and toes crossed everybody...

Well she only went as far as to say more and more likely that we will see some disruptive snow..

Good old main BBC forecast shows the front stalling right IMBY and many others too

this is starting to look serious now, aslo not looking good for the south west areas with a lot of heavy rain here to start.

Edited March 20, 2013 by bigsnow

[peterf]

take my hat off to Ian,just watched my ITV forecast which lasted 18 seconds and she didn't go beyond lunchtime tomorrow lol.

mind she's well fit.

Edited March 20, 2013 by peterf

[Purga]

Not brave enough to call just rain for the SW then? Could be a big move south coming ?

I do keep telling ya' folks!

GFS FI goes into titsville as per GFS usual

Edited March 20, 2013 by Purga