Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[mushymanrob]

Are you sure about that Mushy!

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs604.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs608.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rmgfs602.gif

lol...yeah that confirms it dave, lol, the gfs temp profiles are sooo accurate arent they !

i used the bbc breakfast forecast temps, i find they are closer to the mark then the gfs. mind you, its only just above 0c in the snowzone. so no dave, im not sure, its just what i think ill get here.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Morning the models continue to push south, the t54 gfs ppn shows the stall line now alligned

Devon up to se Ireland and the eastern extent

Suffolk up to liverpool,

So in a matter of 12 hours we have lost southern scotland, parts of yorks and linc and now the corner of EA....

Poss time for shifts but thats wheres its sat. Also more pulses of snow into the SE at t 78-90

ECM + UKMO are very similar...

S

Yes there's a notable shift south from the NAE this morning , the snow line is Gloucestershire according to that ,

a few twists and turns yet I feel , but there's some places that will see 30,40cm by sat , possibly more over hills. Unbelievable .

And yes more snow for the southeast Sunday , which Brian gaze mentions on his home page on weather two .

[mushymanrob]

Because not everyone lives in the south of England? In places like Northern Ireland and the north of England / NW Midlands, this could be by far the best fall of the winter.

Not to mention the fact that next week could see some very low overnight minima, how often do we see the UK's lowest overnight minimum temperature for winter at the end of March?

indeed i expect some sharp overnight frosts, but that depends upon cloud cover and looking at this mornings runs i think there will be alot of cloud about sun-tues, clearer in the west, and northwest, cloudier for longer in the east. it just smacks of stratus, not clear blue sunny skies (which id prefer).

Edited March 21, 2013 by mushymanrob

[snowice]

Yes there's a notable shift south from the NAE this morning , the snow line is Gloucestershire according to that ,

a few twists and turns yet I feel , but there's some places that will see 30,40cm by sat , possibly more over hills. Unbelievable .

And yes more snow for the southeast Sunday , which Brian gaze mentions on his home page on weather two .

just 30miles south and iam burried?its shifting south again i wonder will it go south any more?

Edited March 21, 2013 by snowice

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

lol...yeah that confirms it dave, lol, the gfs temp profiles are sooo accurate arent they !

i used the bbc breakfast forecast temps, i find they are closer to the mark then the gfs. mind you, its only just above 0c in the snowzone. so no dave, im not sure, its just what i think ill get here.

To be honest in my experience the bbc temp profile is way way out 9 out 10 times. The only time they are accurate is on the morning of the event regarding temperature . Take my location for example , There's a temp for London , a temp for Cardiff and one for brum , on the map it looks like I'm closest to Cardiff temp , but in reality South Wales is 3,4c warmer than me most of the time, I tend to look to b'ham for my temp on the bbc . But in my opinion they're far too vague .

Edited March 21, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Ian Brown]

viewing this mornings outputs, im not sure why theres much excitement. sure some places will get a dumping (and ironically im in line... anybody wanna swap? lol), but at lower levels it will most likely be slushy, temps are still above 0c even in precip. so the south looks like missing out, getting just rain, maybe some back edge snow later on saturday. the far north northeast misses the main event but could get showers. sunday - tuesday looks overcast, raw, bitter cold in a strong easterly ... now who actually would like that?

the wind looks like dropping midweek, that should make the cloud break, sunnier days, frostier nights.

the next atlantic attack looks set for a repeat, late next week. the gfs still suggests that this one 'wins', the ecm suggests another slider. easter looks wet and windy, no chance of a settled sunny dry one, the only question really is will it be warmer precip, or colder precip/snow.

Ever thought of a move to Cornwall or Southern Ireland Mushy ?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Great charts this morning from a Midlands upwards perspective. 00Z Continues the snowy theme. Very cold weather coming up with no sign of mild weather in sight. Truly amazing for late March.

P.S - Off Topic but can anyone point me in the right direction of the ignore feature?

[Troubleatmill]

GEM going for a raging blizzard for the South East For Easter, now that would be fun for the Kids

[SteveB]

Great charts this morning from a Midlands upwards perspective. 00Z Continues the snowy theme. Very cold weather coming up with no sign of mild weather in sight. Truly amazing for late March.

P.S - Off Topic but can anyone point me in the right direction of the ignore feature?

Go to your name at the top right, click, drop down menu, click on 'my settings' then click on igonore preferences, then type in the users name you want to ignore, click save changes

[Mair Snaw]

Well some amazing days coming up if its cold and snow that floats your Boat, i just looked at the BBC weather page for my area and it gives 30hours of heavy snow then another 24hours of light snow upto sunday evening, now i like my snow but seriously 54 hours of snow??? best get the JCB ready to dig the village out.....

[SMU]

Looking at the GFS snow depth charts which were spot on for the channel is the other week these go for 37 cm ( 15 inches ~) at t96 for areas like chester and slightly east, so NE wales and points east for 30 or so miles seems to be the sweet zone.

Also a wrap around feature for the SE sees it snowing for 40 hours as well,although this is yet to be firmed up and more localised...

S

[lorenzo]

Going to promote the in house NetWx NMM view of events, front travels up the country then stalls bang on mid-day. This GIF shows the progression then stall and gives a good idea on the width of the band and areas affected.

[snowking]

Morning the models continue to push south, the t54 gfs ppn shows the stall line now alligned

Devon up to se Ireland and the eastern extent

Suffolk up to liverpool,

So in a matter of 12 hours we have lost southern scotland, parts of yorks and linc and now the corner of EA....

Poss time for shifts but thats wheres its sat. Also more pulses of snow into the SE at t 78-90

ECM + UKMO are very similar...

S

ECM is almost identical with the placement of the precipitation throughout to the GFS 0z this morning (ill follow this up with the actual charts once I can drag myself out of bed)

SK

[SMU]

Sk any dynamic snow for the SE appearing in the 72 90 range, could be estuary enganced...

S

[Man With Beard]

Looking at the GFS snow depth charts which were spot on for the channel is the other week these go for 37 cm ( 15 inches ~) at t96 for areas like chester and slightly east, so NE wales and points east for 30 or so miles seems to be the sweet zone.

Also a wrap around feature for the SE sees it snowing for 40 hours as well,although this is yet to be firmed up and more localised...

S

Yes the GFS rainfall charts did quite for many parts last week but less well for some parts - ask people living in Bournemouth! - I would read them with the idea that this is what will probably happen within 50 miles of my location, not necessarily here!

[fergieweather]

Sorry for taking this thread off course but it is not fair to say that the Yahoo weather app is "GFS-fed". The forecast for the App is generated by us at the Weather Channel and in recent years it often uses more ECMWF than GFS as we have a choice as to which model to use. It is also edited by forecasters such as myself, although granted we don't always get it right.

We pay a considerable sum of money to the ECMWF for full access to their model data, just as Meteogroup do.

Thanks, John

Hi John, thanks very much for this clarification and exra information ... very interesting. Yes, I can well imagine the sum to ECMWF is rather 'eye-watering'!!

Best,

Ian

[Matty M]

6z NAE broadly similar to 0z, distribution of heavier precip slightly further east perhaps.

But extend of front very similar, just different intensities

NI still in sig red zone IMO with 60mm of water forecast in parts.

Midlands UK looking at 15-30mm of water by AM Saturday.

Edited March 21, 2013 by Matty M

[Harsh Climate]

I don't see NAE further south

Or am I looking at the wrong one again???? Like twenty odd people did last night

[Geordiesnow]

Looks to me on Friday, the front reaches as far North as SW Scotland before it starts to pivots and starts to head southwards again(or its Northern flank is projected to weaken). I don't think in general there has been much Southwards movement but for Saturday there does appear to be some at least according to the GFS model.

You would say NW England and the Midlands are the places to be for sure for this event. Looking forward to how it develops for sure, should be interesting too see.

[SMU]

Yes HC you are looking at the 00z-

remember Matty the accumulation charts now on the 06z + 12z + 18z out to 48 will increase PPN totals up to the E & SE as that front stalls-

Also of note is the 70mm into SE ireland.,.,.- if they can hold snow - more so the E part of ireland that could bethe sweet spot!

S

[Harsh Climate]

Some very IMBY posts appearing about the precipitation edging further south on each run, every precipitation forecast I can find has it reaching well into northern England!

GFS

UKMO

JMA

NAE

GEM

• 
  

Edited March 21, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[The Beast From The East]

Good morning, I'm still new at this but looking at the models and ignoring the snow event what's coming from tomorrow and how far north it will push could someone tell me what they think the easterly will bring for the beginning of next week please.. I know it will be cold in a biting cold wind but I often hear it will be snowy or just a cold dry feed in past events. Also as we are now in late march I wondered if this would make a difference in if there is more chance of snow than say in jan or feb as the sun is a little warmer and showers may form easier. Many thanks

[R.P. McMurphy]

The latest NAEFS paints a pretty picture for Northern/Western UK and into Scotland. Wow!!

[Matty M]

Yes HC you are looking at the 00z-

remember Matty the accumulation charts now on the 06z + 12z + 18z out to 48 will increase PPN totals up to the E & SE as that front stalls-

Also of note is the 70mm into SE ireland.,.,.- if they can hold snow - more so the E part of ireland that could bethe sweet spot!

S

Yea front stalls and begins to pivot back west.

Certainly won't be snow in SE Ireland but eastern Northern Ireland looks primed. Im still quite a bit away from seeing any white stuff, well before next week anyway!

[snowking]

Sk any dynamic snow for the SE appearing in the 72 90 range, could be estuary enganced...

S

Indeed there is Steve - very akin to the GFS

So, the placement of precipitation at 6am tomorrow:

Compared to the GFS:

Similar at midday too:

Note that this is the furthest north that 30F dew point isotherm reaches:

It then retreats south again, so that by 6pm on Saturday, it sits back close to the south coast:

Heres the stall zone on the ECM:

Here it is on the GFS:

And then the extra little treat into SE England shows up pretty identical once again to the ECM:

With GFS for comparison:

So excellent continuity precipitation wise, the only disparity I can see between the two is that the 30F dew point isotherm is taken just a little further north on the GFS during the middle of Friday.

The 0.05deg WRF NMM that Meteociel run out to 72 hours offers a pretty similar story too:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php

SK