Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Cheshire Freeze]

No it hasn't

Looks the same

Again, that's the 12z. The precipitype updates frame by frame after the accumulation which updates straight away.

[Matty M]

Eh?

Reaches Scotland easily.

The rain/snow chart have not updated yet. Only the accumulated rain. The band will be around 50 miles further southwest on the updated charts.

Edited March 20, 2013 by Matty M

[lorenzo]

Is that the 12z?

[Summer Sun]

bare in mind that, that is the 12z NAE ppn type charts Gav

Just realized saw the Wed 18GMT but didn't look at the charts

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks like a small push N on the GFS thus far.

[shaky]

My word how does it do that!!last 2 runs take the precipitation north and then BANG decides to take it south again!!whats wrong with the nae!!

[conor123]

18z further northeast dragging the mild uppers across the Midlands, darn, NAE further southwest, all very confusing and frustrating.

[winterof79]

The rain/snow chart have not updated yet. Only the accumulated rain. The band will be around 50 miles further southwest on the updated charts.

Which probably means the front is taking longer to progress.Not that that is its northern/eastern extent

[Harsh Climate]

When do the fax charts get updated?

[bluearmy]

has anyone worked out that the detail on this is still elusive ??

[winterof79]

When do the fax charts get updated?

11pm ish i think.

[Cheese Rice]

The GFS has pushed the PPN further NE again, a consistent trend since yesterday's 18Z blip.

For now I will discount the NAE on the bases that more runs are needed.

[fergieweather]

In summary: latest modified NAE has snow threat approx N Essex across to Hereford and northwards. Sorry, gotta dash for now.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Haha this last page is hilarious !! About 10 people made the same mistake lol!! Regarding the gfs moving north and nae moving south , the met don't even look at the gfs hi res , they wil follow nae and there own models, I know which one i believe . . . . The one showing snow further south !!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

In summary: latest modified NAE has snow threat approx N Essex across to Hereford and northwards. Sorry, gotta dash for now.

Wait, you can't just shift the entire band 100 miles south and then just leave?!

Clearly a fluid situation here, I'd give it until the 12Zs tomorrow to be honest before we really firm up on anything given the current range of outcomes, multiple bands etc.

[Summer Sun]

Plenty of snow here

The milder air is further north though

[shaky]

Nothing wrong with the gfs!!infact its just an absolute snowfest from lets say just north of the m4 northwards from friday morning!!seriously starting to get worried now that this could be a really bad snowstorm!!

[karlos1983]

for somebody that is about to get drenched for 72 hours,with not a sniff of a snow flake, it sure is entertaining watching you lot flap

looking a very interesting couple of days for those further North.

[Bristawl Si]

No, i dont have any verification stats but this winter (yes i know it's technically Spring now) GFS has been more accurate than NAE in the 24-36 hour timeframe.

[SMU]

T60 which is where the main action is sees the front already around 50 /100 miles SW than the 12z-

THe snow line has come back towards Bristol & along to London but because of the course gridpoint hanst pulled much PPN out of the extreme North & NE, but the shift is there.

People are getting confused with 2 seperate event that are both linked- the 24-48 hour event is highly focussed on the NW & central midlands Etc, when a secondary pulse running up from the SW meets the cold air digging South- this is when the whole lot pivots & stalls out in a line from London out to North wales-

That line is south of Ians line & I expect it to be further still tomorrow.

S

[Harsh Climate]

If anything this last GFS has upgraded the intensity of the precipitation and made it more widespread :0

[Matty M]

Which probably means the front is taking longer to progress.Not that that is its northern/eastern extent

I don't think so, i think it's showing the northern extent retreating south. GFS is actually showing the front slightly further south although initially it may not look it.

Anyway the 00z will be much more decisive.

[fergieweather]

Wait, you can't just shift the entire band 100 miles south and then just leave?!

Clearly a fluid situation here, I'd give it until the 12Zs tomorrow to be honest before we really firm up on anything given the current range of outcomes, multiple bands etc.

V simIlar to last run amalgamated with GM and latest EC areal snow prob v similar including into SW Midlands. However key concern further N over central areas. Cheers... off now.

[SMU]

Stall out zone @ 66

London to South wales

Lincs across to Carlisle-

12z was

Essex to Chester

Hull to Glasgow

A clear move South

S

[Isabellesnanny]

T60 which is where the main action is sees the front already around 50 /100 miles SW than the 12z-

THe snow line has come back towards Bristol & along to London but because of the course gridpoint hanst pulled much PPN out of the extreme North & NE, but the shift is there.

People are getting confused with 2 seperate event that are both linked- the 24-48 hour event is highly focussed on the NW & central midlands Etc, when a secondary pulse running up from the SW meets the cold air digging South- this is when the whole lot pivots & stalls out in a line from London out to North wales-

That line is south of Ians line & I expect it to be further still tomorrow.

S

Do I understand that the Friday snow event won't affect us in the SE corner but that the later event Saturday will, or have I got that wrong ( sorry charts are still a bit of an enigma to me )