Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Matty M]

What's going on to our north on the ECM?

-8c 850s embedded over UK & Ireland in late March. Incredible. No other word.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Latest UKMO 12Z paints a deep white picture for North West / Northern England. It's looking quite incredible at the moment.

[Bristawl Si]

i think the 'other' story developing is for next week with more of a southerly push of the colder air, looking at the models.

For this Friday looks a bit of a worry, rainwise, for some (imby).

[Cloud 10]

http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?20-0

EPIC chart if you want snow.

Heavy snow showers moving in from the continent.- with ~ 520 thickness & -10c air, bitter dewpoints.

S

I'll raise you with the 168 hrs.

Pontoon!

[Purga]

http://www.meteociel...M1-144.GIF?20-0

EPIC chart if you want snow.

Heavy snow showers moving in from the continent.- with ~ 520 thickness & -10c air, bitter dewpoints.

S

HC the 48 chart is really when we are looking for snow though- its where the frontal zone stalls when the second pulse moves up & pivots at 72-84

168hrs even more Epic!

not to mention 192hrs of course

[-uksnow-]

Once again, another amazing ECM run so far, the level of cold surrounding us is phenomonal, no worries about lack of cold air to tap!

With the last cold shot, the cold air was 'upgraded' (progged colder) nearer to the event we got, i wonder if this could happen again, when was the last time we had -8 uppers nationwide in April?

[Summer Sun]

Quite incredible from ECM cold just keeps on going

[Matty M]

Extraordinary charts, these are almost November 2010 like to be honest. Just a different month.

If they occur we could be witnessing one of the coldest March's on record. (In Ireland's climate history anyway).

[Summer Sun]

Is this slightly further south with the snow? Looks like it to me

Edited March 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowman.]

Please be a channel low then after I want a warm settled April.

Just a channel low to end it.

[Purga]

ECM at 216hrs

Cold feed not cut off so convincingly on this run.

Getting my sledge ready for the South Downs Cresta run - LOL

Hope Ian F tells METO not to drop Sussex in it again this time round!!

[SMU]

E M 216 sees a low moving into the SW undercutting from teh SE looks very snowy !!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM at 216hrs

Cold feed not cut off so convincingly on this run.

Getting my sledge ready for the South Downs Cresta run - LOL

Hope Ian F tells METO not to drop Sussex in it again this time round!!

Exactly what I was talking about earlier RE GFS at 192 hours. ECM keeps more energy going S in comparison to GFS. The cold spell has the potential to be extended even further.

[-uksnow-]

As if by magic the Met-O's potential snow event seems to be arriving on cue...

[Tamara]

I'll raise you with the 168 hrs.

Pontoon!

A cross hemispheric easterly! Thousands and thousands of miles Now that IS reverse zonality

[Purga]

Final blizzard of the series lining up

Brilliant run from ECM with no end in sight this time.

[Panayiotis]

As if by magic the Met-O's potential snow event seems to be arriving on cue...

What snow event? Edited March 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

As if by magic the Met-O's potential snow event seems to be arriving on cue...

Yep day 9 and 10 is now showing the met offices concerns

Slightly less cold in the south west by t240

Edited March 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[-uksnow-]

What snow event?

14:25 today from Fergie

"Latest from Exeter: concerns re potential for another "significant snow event.... with drifting and blizzards" most likely days 9-10. Potential further south, too."

[Cheshire Freeze]

Final blizzard of the series lining up

Brilliant run from ECM with no end in sight this time.

When was the last time the 0C isotherm was uniformly so far south nearing the beginning of April?

[SP1986]

Surely the ECM is exaggerating the extent of the cold.. I can't really get my head around that.. it would deliver snow and cold of historical significance to some. As much as I hate that in Spring, even I have to stand back in awe and look at the ECM with my jaw collapsed on the floor. In relative terms it's more severe than December 2010 because of the time of year. So either; the models have it wrong completely.. which is unlikely, the models are showing historical winter spell in March, and who knows the probability of that.. or this will downgrade into a more conservative spell...

I don't really know, but the ECM does show the most extreme output Ive seen in a long time, relative to the time of year.

Edited March 20, 2013 by SP1986

[Summer Sun]

What snow event?

Latest from Exeter: concerns re potential for another "significant snow event.... with drifting and blizzards" most likely days 9-10. Potential further south, too.

Weds-Fri their concern period. Go for milder thereafter with EC EPSgram example to support this notion in their briefing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Surely the ECM is exaggerating the extent of the cold.. I can't really get my head around that.. it would deliver snow and cold of historical significance to some. As much as I hate that in Spring, even I have to stand back in awe and look at the ECM with my jaw collapsed on the floor. In relative terms it's more severe than December 2010 because of the time of year. So either; the models have it wrong completely.. which is unlikely, the models are showing historical winter spell in March, and who knows the probability of that.. or this will downgrade into a more conservative spell...

I don't really know, but the ECM does show the most extreme output Ive seen in a long time.

These really are staggering synoptics. Had we had these synoptics occurred late Jan/early Feb we'd be experiencing some of the most severe winter weather we'd have seen in a long time as temps would be consistently sub zero.

Edited March 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[peterf]

These really are staggering synoptics. Had we had these synoptics occurred late Jan/early Feb we'd be experiencing some of the most severe winter weather we'd have seen in a long time as temps would be consistently sub zero.

just as well we are getting them now then.

[Cloud 10]

As if by magic the Met-O's potential snow event seems to be arriving on cue...

...........