Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Summer Sun]

Latest NAE 18z this time!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

V simIlar to last run amalgamated with GM and latest EC areal snow prob v similar including into SW Midlands. However key concern further N over central areas. Cheers... off now.

Thankyou for your insight Ian

[Bristawl Si]

V simIlar to last run amalgamated with GM and latest EC areal snow prob v similar including into SW Midlands. However key concern further N over central areas. Cheers... off now.

SW Midlands?

Not far from there, here in N Bristol - interesting times indeed. Cant believe we're in last 10 days of March

[SMU]

Now commenting on that stall out zone-

Take the ECM 0c isotherm V the 18z isotherm at 72 V 66

GFS 66

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032018/gfs-1-66.png?18

ECM 72

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032012/ECM0-72.GIF?20-0

You see another tweak further south- south of London-

So the southern end is getting south of the M4- who gets left out- Southern Scotland, Yorks & the Northern belt-

Where does it look great- the bit in the middle...

S

[-uksnow-]

Stall out zone @ 66

London to South wales

Lincs across to Carlisle-

12z was

Essex to Chester

Hull to Glasgow

A clear move South

S

Colder uppers also further south on 18z than 12z by Sun 7am

12z 0c isotherm straddling IOW - Cardiff

18z Normandy - Exeter - Swansea.

[fergieweather]

Ps totally ignore NAE raw. Met office not using it for current developments. Heavily modified to GM and EC. SO IGNORE CURRENT NAE. On conference with Exeter now.

[Dancerwithwings]

By sat morning comes back south again !!!!.

[kev238]

Started to get quite interested in this feature for Nottingham! Thinking it might start as snow, turn sleety, then turn back. However still ages to go until can be sure!!

[winterof79]

Central Northern England still get a battering

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032012/gfs-2-72.png?12

Southward correction or not.Read fergies post too.He posted.......

V simIlar to last run amalgamated with GM and latest EC areal snow prob v similar including into SW Midlands. However key concern further N over central areas. Cheers... off now.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Now commenting on that stall out zone-

Take the ECM 0c isotherm V the 18z isotherm at 72 V 66

GFS 66

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-1-66.png?18

ECM 72

http://www.meteociel...CM0-72.GIF?20-0

You see another tweak further south- south of London-

So the southern end is getting south of the M4- who gets left out- Southern Scotland, Yorks & the Northern belt-

Where does it look great- the bit in the middle...

S

I could take being left out IMBY if this is the alternative:

[A.J]

Latest NAE 18z this time!

That's TUESDAY'S charts Gavin !!!!!!!

.....Just Kidding!

[Matty M]

Some heavy snow for NI

[Bristawl Si]

Ps totally ignore NAE raw. Met office not using it for current developments. Heavily modified to GM and EC. SO IGNORE CURRENT NAE. On conference with Exeter now.

Loving this 'live' insight from a Pro!

Much appreciated Ian.

[shaky]

Now commenting on that stall out zone-

Take the ECM 0c isotherm V the 18z isotherm at 72 V 66

GFS 66

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032018/gfs-1-66.png?18

ECM 72

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013032012/ECM0-72.GIF?20-0

You see another tweak further south- south of London-

So the southern end is getting south of the M4- who gets left out- Southern Scotland, Yorks & the Northern belt-

Where does it look great- the bit in the middle...

S

Woopee basically steve the midlands!!

[winterof79]

Now commenting on that stall out zone-

Take the ECM 0c isotherm V the 18z isotherm at 72 V 66

GFS 66

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-1-66.png?18

ECM 72

http://www.meteociel...CM0-72.GIF?20-0

You see another tweak further south- south of London-

So the southern end is getting south of the M4- who gets left out- Southern Scotland, Yorks & the Northern belt-

Where does it look great- the bit in the middle...

S

Disagree with Yorkshire missing out.Escpecially West/South Yorkshire.

http://expert-images...032218_2018.gif

Ian f said

fergieweather, on 20 March 2013 - 21:52 , said:

V simIlar to last run amalgamated with GM and latest EC areal snow prob v similar including into SW Midlands. However key concern further N over central areas. Cheers... off now.

Edited March 20, 2013 by winterof79

[-uksnow-]

Woopee basically steve the midlands!!

Shaky, i thing there should be a swear box for everytime you say 'Midlands'

Cold air is flooding back in on the 18z, Sunday is a day of Snow showers for the South with perhaps something more persistant moving into the SE ...

[Matty M]

Ps totally ignore NAE raw. Met office not using it for current developments. Heavily modified to GM and EC. SO IGNORE CURRENT NAE. On conference with Exeter now.

I don't thing its wise, ever, to totally ignore a NWP that is readily used.

Yes the NAE is flip-flopping but it's sol. tonight has to be considered with every other model output. It is not like it is completely anomalous anyway.

[Captain Shortwave]

The undercut is much cleaner on this gfs run, hence the colder uppers move south quicker. Real squeeze on the isobars too. Going to feel very very bitter.

Snow showers for Southern and Eastern coasts of the UK and Northern Ireland.

Edited March 20, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

Ps totally ignore NAE raw. Met office not using it for current developments. Heavily modified to GM and EC. SO IGNORE CURRENT NAE. On conference with Exeter now.

LOL,bin the NAE and the GFS!

Stick with the LFS (Lampost Forecast System) a really hi-res model!

Edited March 20, 2013 by Cloud 10

[manutdmatt1986]

Oh hello. This feature across the South East wasn't there before - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1975/96-779_awr8.GIF

[SMU]

Im sure you know the post was expoiting the line along from southern scotland across to the borders & the belt south of that-

THe further south you go into Yorks yes- however theres still 60 hours to go-

Remember in the failed easterly in the last 60 hours we lost nearly 100 miles of southerly correction!

If I could pick a place now to see the best snow it would be 100% Snake pass.

T108 & snow showers building in the eastern approaches

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032018/gfs-0-108.png?18

S

[lorenzo]

Ps totally ignore NAE raw. Met office not using it for current developments. Heavily modified to GM and EC. SO IGNORE CURRENT NAE. On conference with Exeter now.

Is THAT NAE the 12z ?????? ! Or do we ignore both the 12z and the 18z !

NAE IDEA !

Look forward to the update Ian on how far North South this thing is predicted. It's a pity we don't have an interactive map where we can all draw our guesses !

[TEITS]

So the southern end is getting south of the M4- who gets left out- Southern Scotland, Yorks & the Northern belt-

S

Yep and to be honest it isn't a surprise.

Interesting to watch this unfold because I am happy to put my experience of similar situations to those of say the Met O who are using the models. Like I said earlier I would be totally amazed if the snow manages to reach as far N as S Scotland. I even feel parts of S Yorks may miss out and further corrections S cannot be ruled out.

I will add my fellow members in E Anglia should refrain from getting excited also because historically the precip tends to be very weak and patchy across this region.

[-uksnow-]

This is Gavin all over..

Sorry off topic but I couldn't resist.

[Tim Bland]

Some heavy snow for NI

Looks a tad south compared with 12z... Looking forward to Ian's update re modified GM. Strange he says ignore it because it backs up his earlier post re snow line being north Essex to Hereford

As TEITS says, if you look at the NAE for Fri afternoon there is very little precip reaching the NE and East with most of its stalling in west Mids and west of Pennines

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=45&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

Edited March 20, 2013 by Tim Bland