Spring Model Discussion 17/3/13 6PM onwards....

[Geordiesnow]

That is pretty exceptional, and I would suggest we will go a long time for comparable charts again in late March.

Is it that unusual though? I'm sure we can get low thicknesses via a Northerly at this time of year. What is unusual is how persistent the cold air, usually colder air at this of year tend to mix out in cold set ups but this set up is proving to be an exception and the impressive thing about these charts is just how widespread the cold air is across Europe and Scandinavia. Conversely, whilst one area is unusually cold, another is usually warm and looking at the upper air temps profile, it seems parts of Asia has had an earlier spring than usual.

Apart from the weather front, the outlook does look like a dry one, the ECM has been hinting we may pick up a more convective flow and the GFS 18Z does try and hint at it so maybe in time, it be all eyes to the North aswell but at this stage, that is a long way off.

[Snowman.]

I do keep telling ya' folks!

I told them days ago!

[TEITS]

So basically you are forecasting no further than Derbyshire.......brave boy and against what Exeter are discussing according to Ian.

I feel come the period in question then Derbyshire would be my N limit. When it comes to these synoptic situations it isn't just how far N the front will get but also E. This is why locations such as NE England, Humber, Lincs, E Anglia are unlikely to see great amounts of precip.

I have highlighted the area below where I feel the greatest snowfall amounts will occur.

[Fred Sykes]

Nothing but rain for the south/south west! Boooooo!!!!

[mountain shadow]

Fergieweather may have said to ignore the 18z NAE but the NI local weather forcast looked a carbon copy of it and the phrase " a hazardous day" was used for Friday for NI, and it was all snow.

Someone would have cleared that forecast for NI.

Edited March 20, 2013 by mountain shadow

[cooling climate]

I would not be surprised the way the models are trending if we saw something

akin to a channel running low from t60 onwards.

[Purga]

I feel come the period in question then Derbyshire would be my N limit. When it comes to these synoptic situations it isn't just how far N the front will get but also E. This is why locations such as NE England, Humber, Lincs, E Anglia are unlikely to see great amounts of precip.

I have highlighted the area below where I feel the greatest snowfall amounts will occur.

Peterborough appears to be excluded??

Nothing but rain for the south/south west! Boooooo!!!!

Patience Grasshopper - your turn will come next week.

[peterf]

Fergieweather may have said to ignore the 18z NAE but the NI local weather forcast looked a carbon copy of it and the phrase " a hazardous day" was used for Friday for NI, and it was all snow.

Someone would have cleared that forecast for NI.

Paddy Maginty?

[Geordiesnow]

I love all these trending Southwards comments like, in my eyes, the PPN has been more or less in the same position for the past day now, it would seem likely the Northern extent of the PPN will be somewhere in Northumberland before it starts to pivot but give it a 100 miles either way. That said you can't imagine the northern boundary of the PPN will reach as far north as Northern Scotland or as far South as the Midlands, it will be somewhere in Northern England but where is up for debate.

When reading this thread, you think there has actually been some southwards movement, there could still be some movement southwards but I think the position the models are predicting where it be now will be where it ends up, give or take 100 miles either way. The more detailed BBC graphics will give us some indication how the computer models expect this front to behave, is it all just one band or will there be a 2nd piece of energy(rainfall) to the front?

[Captain Shortwave]

The NASA model is being a complete scrooge

Even into Monday the South West is in positive uppers and the -8 line hasn't even moved south of Scotland yet. Also the precipitation appears to reach the far north of Scotland earlier on.

[Chris K]

For people like me who is likely to see only rain...you can't deny this has been a brilliant, if at times frustrating, period of model watching.

Rainfall totals look troublesome for parts of the SW considering farm fields where I live are still giant sqwelchy mud arenas.

[legritter]

Evening all ,thought i would join the party .charts absolutely amazing again ,lets hope plenty of posters get their wishes .from IMBY perspective i just would like a nice covering which lasts for 24hrs that would do me .tomorrows charts should give us a good clue as to where the main fronts could be positioned ,but as another poster pointed out not much in the way of details being said on local forecasts so its another hard one again .we do have the possibility of undercuts so if precipitation is about more could get lucky .early next week also potential if some cold uppers get pulled in .lets all enjoy it while we have it gang

[Bullseye]

And how north this goes shows Glasgow been involved in the action and no further north at the moment this what I could see from the BBC forecast! Interesting I must say...

[fergieweather]

Fergieweather may have said to ignore the 18z NAE but the NI local weather forcast looked a carbon copy of it and the phrase " a hazardous day" was used for Friday for NI, and it was all snow.

Someone would have cleared that forecast for NI.

We used the 12z modified run for the 2225pm bulletins across BBC. Please bear in mind the graphics on tv are representing modified NAE and only rarely the raw version.

[Cheese Rice]

I love all these trending Southwards comments like, in my eyes, the PPN has been more or less in the same position for the past day now, it would seem likely the Northern extent of the PPN will be somewhere in Northumberland before it starts to pivot but give it a 100 miles either way. That said you can't imagine the northern boundary of the PPN will reach as far north as Northern Scotland or as far South as the Midlands, it will be somewhere in Northern England but where is up for debate.

When reading this thread, you think there has actually been some southwards movement, there could still be some movement southwards but I think the position the models are predicting where it be now will be where it ends up, give or take 100 miles either way. The more detailed BBC graphics will give us some indication how the computer models expect this front to behave, is it all just one band or will there be a 2nd piece of energy(rainfall) to the front?

Indeed, you would think there was some sort of shift in the models. While there is always a risk of a southward correction this has yet to occur.

[mountain shadow]

We used the 12z modified run for the 2225pm bulletins across BBC. Please bear in mind the graphics on tv are representing modified NAE and only rarely the raw version.

Happy days. Even better news.!!

[Chris W]

Interesting that Ian F was mentioning Easter weekend earlier today. Here's the ECM at 240 hours:

How can these charts keep getting better and better for cold, still? Rhetorical question. I leave the country in 2 weeks for New Zealand, and won't see spring til September - but will you lot over here?

[Eskimo]

Interesting that Ian F was mentioning Easter weekend earlier today. Here's the ECM at 240 hours:

How can these charts keep getting better and better for cold, still? Rhetorical question. I leave the country in 2 weeks for New Zealand, and won't see spring til September - but will you lot over here?

Are you out there to live? What are the Winters like lol?

[Chris W]

Are you out there to live? What are the Winters like lol?

Yes to live for a year at least. Only been there for a month in June 2011 and that was their 3rd warmest winter on record, so I can't comment too much! Generally Christchurch (where I'm going) looks about the same as southern England/northern France for its weather.

[Paul_1978]

Yeah, I'm sure there are inevitable case histories of similar guise. The UKMO folk tell me they can't wait for NAE to go. Sooner the better. The broadly poor view of GFS (more especially past t+144) in Exeter Ops Centre is an old story.

And the other day I posted that I ignore the GFS and haven't looked at it for weeks, and was branded foolish ;-)

[Cheshire Freeze]

And the other day I posted that I ignore the GFS and haven't looked at it for weeks, and was branded foolish ;-)

I think if the UKMO and ECM released more freely available parameters to the general public, we wouldn't have to rely solely on the GFS for such info!

As for the UKMO, I think it's high time we got to see far more info.....considering we're funding the organisation through tax and all...

Edited March 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[georgiedre]

We used the 12z modified run for the 2225pm bulletins across BBC. Please bear in mind the graphics on tv are representing modified NAE and only rarely the raw version.

i see that met office have updated the snow warning for further south and west but in your opinion do you see them changing it again further south and west??? btw im right on the line of the warning.lol

[fergieweather]

I think if the UKMO and ECM released more freely available parameters to the general public, we wouldn't have to rely solely on the GFS for such info!

As for the UKMO, I think it's high time we got to see far more info.....considering we're funding the organisation through tax and all...

Not that simple, albeit a common misconception. In the US, all NOAA-NWS output is publically available due to it's unique position as a wholly government/public funded body. However, UKMO is a Trading Fund within the Department for Business Innovation and Skills, operating on a commercial basis under set targets. The only part purposely set aside as a free public 'asset' is the PWS, especially in terms of the warnings system. Everything else is a commercial entity and depends on income generation. Worth noting that in France, the "pay-to-view'" status is even more stringently established through MeteoFrance.

PS Pretty much everyone I know at UKMO and BBC Weather just use MeteoGroup's WeatherPro app to get instant broad fix on EC site forecast comparison versus all the innumerable GFS-fed ones such as via Yahoo or whatever.

Edited March 20, 2013 by fergieweather

[Dancerwithwings]

I think if the UKMO and ECM released more freely available parameters to the general public, we wouldn't have to rely solely on the GFS for such info!

As for the UKMO, I think it's high time we got to see far more info.....considering we're funding the organisation through tax and all...

I second that all the way, get the petition going im sure most will back you all the way ha ha...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not that simple, albeit a common misconception. In the US, all NOAA-NWS output is publically available due to it's unique position as a wholly government/public funded body. However, UKMO is a Trading Fund within the Department for Business Innovation and Skills, operating on a commercial basis under set targets. The only part purposely set aside as a free public 'asset' is the PWS, especially in terms of the warnings system. Everything else is a commercial entity and depends on income generation. Worth noting that in France, the "pay-to-view'" status is even more stringently established through MeteoFrance.

PS Pretty much everyone I know at UKMO and BBC Weather just use MeteoGroup's WeatherPro app to get instant broad fix on EC site forecast comparison versus all the innumerable GFS-fed ones such as via Yahoo or whatever.

Ahhhhh fair point Ian.....thanks for clearing that up.

I knew there would be a commercial aspect but I still feel a few more parameters could be made available to the amateurs like us.

Edited March 21, 2013 by CreweCold