Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning all looking imto fantasy  world not the weather  for sun lovers  its looking  like its  could  get  a bit wet  again later!!

[Frosty.]

The latest Gefs 00z mean is trending more and more unsettled compared to yesterday when it was showing an anticyclonic outlook, now it shows a more amplified upstream pattern with winds predominantly from north of west with a cool and showery polar maritime type flow with a large area of high pressure way out in the atlantic and the jet aligned nw/se. At least the week ahead is broadly similar to before with a nw-se split, the nw unsettled, wet and windy at times as lows run northeast across western and northern areas but high pressure to the south and east of the uk keeps southern and eastern areas more settled and warmer for most of the time. The azores high then ridges northeast by next friday and could give the south a fine weekend but unsettled weather soon returning to the north and west, then the further outlook is looking generally cooler and more unsettled for all areas with wintry ppn returning to northern hills and mountains. The Gfs 00z op run follows a similar pattern to the gefs mean with a trend to cool or very cool and unsettled weather as time goes on but initially it still brings a lot of fine weather to the south and next weekend may possibly be fine and warm in the far south of the uk according to this run, actually the mean would bring a fine weekend for many as the low is further northwest.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

think gibby summed things up perfectly (nothing new there) and theres not much to add or discuss. im more then happy with the normal april weather, even if its looking possibly cooler but drier and sunnier later in the week. its doubtful whether weve seen the last of the overnight frosts.

[shaky]

The latest Gefs 00z mean is trending more and more unsettled compared to yesterday when it was showing an anticyclonic outlook, now it shows a more amplified upstream pattern with winds predominantly from north of west with a cool and showery polar maritime type flow with a large area of high pressure way out in the atlantic and the jet aligned nw/se. At least the week ahead is broadly similar to before with a nw-se split, the nw unsettled, wet and windy at times as lows run northeast across western and northern areas but high pressure to the south and east of the uk keeps southern and eastern areas more settled and warmer for most of the time. The azores high then ridges northeast by next friday and could give the south a fine weekend but unsettled weather soon returning to the north and west, then the further outlook is looking generally cooler and more unsettled for all areas with wintry ppn returning to northern hills and mountains. The Gfs 00z op run follows a similar pattern to the gefs mean with a trend to cool or very cool and unsettled weather as time goes on but initially it still brings a lot of fine weather to the south and next weekend may possibly be fine and warm in the far south of the uk according to this run, actually the mean would bring a fine weekend for many as the low is further northwest.

The mean keepw changing everyday!!theres no point even looking at those gefs mean charts!!the amount its flipped in the past 24 hours is ridiculous!!might aswell just stick to the operationals cos they seem to be doing much better at the moment and more accurate!!

[Frosty.]

The mean keepw changing everyday!!theres no point even looking at those gefs mean charts!!the amount its flipped in the past 24 hours is ridiculous!!might aswell just stick to the operationals cos they seem to be doing much better at the moment and more accurate!!

Sorry but there is a point, I am only describing what the latest trend is and the mean is a very good guide since it is the most probable trend compared to the extremes that the op runs sometimes churn out.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to hint at a settled and probably slightly cooler end to the week this morning temperatures will probably still hit the low teens for a lot of us given the time of year

 

[Frosty.]

Ecm 00z op run looking good next weekend as high pressure drifts across the south to become centred to the southeast by this time next week, it would give a pleasant weekend with lots of sunshine to the south of the uk but trending more unsettled to the northwest after a fine start. Beyond that, the ecm trends unsettled and cooler due to that deep low near iceland which gradually moves further southeast, it's similar to the gfs 00z and the gefs 00z mean with the unsettled and cooler trend but in the week ahead, lots of fine and warmish weather to the south and east, always more unsettled to the west and north as lows run northeastwards on a sw/ne aligned jet, the jet trending nw/se in the further outlook.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tim Bland]

Make the most of this coming week. Strong ensemble support for things to go downhill next week with temps below average again

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[Purga]

ENS trending cooler this morning

 

Some strong northern blocking appearing again in FI

 

Maybe in line with the EC 32 dayer trend? it is only one run and it is FI of course but the trend does seem towards an 'average' type April weather regime as we move past the brief warm up.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Purga

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can't post images but looking at T126 on ECM next Friday looks a chance for some decent fairly warm, dry and sunny weather over the weekend. With more HP way to our west it would seem that we may have a few days of nice weather next weekend. However, its that higher pressure way out west that assists in the NW'ly flow to develop and a return to cool conditions as it links with building pressure over Greenland.

BFTP

Edited April 14, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[CongletonHeat]

I find it really annoying that high pressure over us just gets bulldozed out of the way yet in other places it seems impossible to shift.

[bradymk]

I find it really annoying that high pressure over us just gets bulldozed out of the way yet in other places it seems impossible to shift.

I think that really depends on the strength of the high pressure and whether it is either HLB (High latitude blocking), a blocking high or the strength and positioning of the jet stream at the time.

[Milhouse]

I find it really annoying that high pressure over us just gets bulldozed out of the way yet in other places it seems impossible to shift.

 

I assume youre talking about the one for next weekend showing here. Its because theres a stronger high in the Atlantic thats looking more robust allowing low pressure to track round the top of it towards the UK.

 

However the ECM mean at day 10 does show winds tilting back to a warmer direction with pressure remaining high to the south of the UK throughout.

 

Mostly mild for southern areas, cooler further north.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Starting to look to me like the warm up that never was ... Any settled and warm weather is still out at +7 days away , the GFS has decided to drop it's warm uppers next weekend , and replace them with below average ... Rain signals are on the increase again and for the West of the country , plenty of cloud for most of next week and beyond... A shame s things were finally starting to look good for a change to warm spring conditions.. 

[johnholmes]

for those of us east of the main high ground, despite the very strong and gusty winds, its a real spring like day, so best we enjoy it as some of you seem to suggest colder and wetter to come?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run carries on from the trend of the 00z with a gradual descent into a cooler and unsettled pattern with high pressure eventually becoming centred to the southwest of the BI with a trough either just to the northwest or directly over the uk but that is still some way off and lots of time for the outlook to change for the better. Next weekend still looking good for saturday at least but that trough to the nw digs further south next sunday so that could spoil the second half of next weekend, even in the south. The jet is aligned sw/ne and it will remain that way for most of the week ahead but there is a tendancy for the jet profile to shift more towards a flatter pattern and then more toward nw/se with the cool unsettled weather in the north becoming widespread through FI.

[Summer Sun]

Although the models are showing a cooler trend the met office continue to back close to average temperatures but locally rather warm in the south and east to the 28th certainly goes against what GFS and ECM is showing

Edited April 14, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

for those of us east of the main high ground, despite the very strong and gusty winds, its a real spring like day, so best we enjoy it as some of you seem to suggest colder and wetter to come?

If the ensemble mean is anything to go by and the gfs 00z/06z and ecm 00z. then yes, cooler and wetter would be the further outlook. Edited April 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

06z ensemble takes a sharp drop from the 19th through to the 29th precipitation still looks like staying below average which is a big improvement on this time last year

 

Given the time of year temperatures should still hit the low teens for many parts of England and Wales

 

[UV-RAY]

A big cool down looking at those Gavin, winter hasn't finished with us yet looking at those.

[Milhouse]

The ensemble mean ever so slightly below average in late April doesnt equal Winter. Northwesterlies in late April bring temperatures of between 8 and 13c north to south with squally showers and perhaps a bit of snow for the highlands. There are ensemble members that show winds more northerly in FI and there are those that show more westerly with high pressure more in control.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

A big cool down looking at those Gavin, winter hasn't finished with us yet looking at those.

 

Well I wouldn't call it winter temperatures would still reach double figures especially for the south after all it is April now with the sun quite strong now

[UV-RAY]

Watch them fall more sharply over the coming days, remember snow can and does fall in April with temps of around 10c. It's when any showers come long they fall sharply. I would expect anywhere from the Midlands Northwards could see some wintriness.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[DR(S)NO]

If the ensemble mean is anything to go by and the gfs 00z/06z and ecm 00z. then yes, cooler and wetter would be the further outlook.

Polite request Frosty...I enjoy reading your posts but ,have to say,I'd prefer if you changed your font please.At the moment I need to increase the size of every post you do.

Cheers

[johnholmes]

At this time of year the most likely flow to give snow showers both by day and night is a marked polar or arctic incursion. With the arctic type even though daytime temperatures can reach double figures heavy showers will quickly turn to either so called soft hail, sleet and even snow and down to low levels even well south. Obviously the lasting quality of any snowfall is pretty small on low ground and even on higher hills away from the far north is not likely to last 24 hours, although it has been known.