Model Output Discussion 12z 03/04/13

[Frosty.]

Polite request Frosty...I enjoy reading your posts but ,have to say,I'd prefer if you changed your font please.At the moment I need to increase the size of every post you do.

Cheers

Thanks DR(S)NO

 

As expected, the latest met office update has changed to a more unsettled outlook which is what the models are showing so it's not a surprise, at least temps look close to average and rather warm in the brighter south and east.

[Summer Sun]

Well this is much better from GFS

 

 

Much better run so far compared to previous runs

 

UKMO on board as well with GFS at t144

 

 

 

Northerly again in FI but thankfully its shorted lived

 

Edited April 14, 2013 by Gavin.

[Panayiotis]

Well this is much better from GFS

 

Much better run so far compared to previous runs

 

UKMO on board as well with GFS at t144

 

 

 

 

Dont forget the GEM and the NAVGEM!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

However the GFS,UKMO,GEM and NAVGEM all point to sunny conditions for most for next weekend but it will be colder than average with trapped cold air:

Edited April 14, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Summer Sun]

Dont forget the GEM and the NAVGEM!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

However the GFS,UKMO,GEM and NAVGEM all point to sunny conditions for most for next weekend but it will be colder than average with trapped cold air:

 

Not had time to check them yet trying to watch the footy and look at the charts is a bit difficult, from the quick look I've had it looks like cross model agreement for next weekend which is rare at this time distance

[Milhouse]

Looks a fairly pleasant weekend but innitially quite a chilly one as the high moves over us. GFS suggests temperatures in the low teens on Saturday and a degree or two higher on Sunday. So after a cooler period at the end of the week temperatures should be recovering, but still with chilly nights. It will be interesting to see the development of this weekends high. GEM 12z has the high building north which would mean it would probably stay put over the UK for a while not allowing low pressure to come south.

 

[JK1]

Dont forget the GEM and the NAVGEM!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=0&archive=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

However the GFS,UKMO,GEM and NAVGEM all point to sunny conditions for most for next weekend but it will be colder than average with trapped cold air:

what kind of minium temps would that cause? specially in the south

[Tim Bland]

Could still be more snow to come at the end of the month... I'm done with snow now tho.. When can I finally get the BBQ out?!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=324&mode=2

[Milhouse]

This as what the GFS says for Friday night

 

[Frosty.]

A more Anticyclonic gfs 12z, especially next weekend which looks much better for a fine and pleasant weekend with long sunny spells but cold enough at night for a touch of frost, this pattern then persists well into the following week with high pressure across the south but again with chilly nights under clear skies with widespread slight frosts, progressively more unsettled further north though with northern britain windier and more changeable. Then the gfs throws in a surprise but shortlived cold snap, mainly for the far north with wintry showers for a time but a ridge soon topples southeast and cuts off the arctic air before it really gets going, however, with the jet aligned nw/se by then, there is scope for a reload of cold air from the northwest a few days later. So, a more promising run in terms of fine and dry weather, temps around average but  feeling rather warm in prolonged sunshine.

 

Nice to see parts of the southeast reach 22c this afternoon, a couple of degrees higher than expected.

[Summer Sun]

Remarkably all models now agree on the end of this week ECM has now joined they party in building pressure

 

[JK1]

Remarkably all models now agree on the end of this week ECM has now joined they party in building pressure

 

would that mean no cold temps?

[Frosty.]

would that mean no cold temps?

No, there would be ground frosts or even slight air frosts under those conditions but nice sunny days with light winds.

[Summer Sun]

would that mean no cold temps?

 

Temperatures would be around 10 to 14c for many so yes no cold temperatures

 

[JK1]

Temperatures would be around 10 to 14c for many so yes no cold temperatures

 

thanks, what about night?

[Summer Sun]

thanks, what about night?

 

A slight frost at night especially in the country side

 

ECM t168 shows a completely different pattern from what we've suffered this year with low pressure over Greenland

 

[Kentspur]

Interested to know where we're the highest temps recorded today car thermometer went to 21c in Isle of Sheppey

[Summer Sun]

Interested to know where we're the highest temps recorded today car thermometer went to 21c in Isle of Sheppey

 

Manston in Kent hit 22c which makes it the warmest day of 2013 so far

[JK1]

how wish i for all that red to flood over us

[Milhouse]

ECM 0z mean hinted at winds turning more westerly in FI with high pressure remaining to the south of the UK. Good news that the 12z follows this with a cut off area of high pressure staying in the Bay or Biscay preventing winds from veering northwesterly. This high moves across Europe to end the run with an associated rise in temperatures.

 

Edited April 14, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

Much better from ECM tonight it says no quite firmly to any colder snap thanks to a strong area of high pressure building from southern Europe what a difference 12 hours makes!
 

[Frosty.]

Some very cold frosty nights on the Gfs 12z later in the week, friday night looks the coldest with a sharp frost across southern areas, saturday night not as cold but still a widespread slight frost and then sunday night the temps remaining just above freezing with a ground frost, the chance of widespread slight frosts increases again on subsequent nights but fine and sunny by day with temps around the seasonal average. Tomorrow looks a fairly pleasant day with a mix of clouds and sunshine and temps close to average, just a few scattered showers but then wet and windy weather spreading to western and northern areas on tues/wed followed by showers, not much rain to speak of for southern and eastern areas until later in the week before the Azores high ridges northeastwards into southern britain.

 

And there is the magic 22c reached today, hopefully a taste of things to come.

Edited April 14, 2013 by Frosty039

[Carlrg]

The Bom has had a cold slant all winter and continues the trend on this run.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=1&archive=0

[Frosty.]

A really good ecm 12z operational run, especially into the following week with some heat beginning to build across the south by then, lovely continental warmth wafting over southern areas with temps rocketing well into the 70's, I would not be surprised to see a very warm and humid thundery breakdown from a set up like that but before then we would have a fine weekend in the south but with slight frosts as per the gfs, more changeable and windier further north but mild, hopefully the ecm is onto something with that potential mini heatwave beyond the next week.

[Guest pjl20101]

Judging by the 8-14 day output tonight it looks like a north westerly by the end of the month. The cold weather the way I see it this time may not last all that long as there is more hp out in the Atlantic and the heights to Greenland never give any indication of northern blocking other than an area above Russia if you like. Sorry if I haven't posted the link tonight its just that my mobile internet is pretty slow but that is my balanced view on it.

[damianslaw]

For the first time in over 3 months, we are starting a new working week with the atlantic in full charge.

 

All models are showing a changeable typical spell of weather for the time of year, mild for all especially in the SE with a southwesterly flow until later in the week when more of a cooler westerly develops. All should see some rain this week, the heaviest further west and it will be quite windy in places. SE parts should see temperatures a bit above the average, further north and west, more average temperatures, but compared to the last 2 months it is going to feel much milder than the temperatures actually are.

 

GFS and ECM are both very similiar in their output for the end of the week and into the following week, both indicate ridging of heights over the country, but with very low heights projected to develop to our NW, these heights are set to quickly collapse as low pressure takes over pulling in quite a cold feed of air from the NW - a classic northerly could develop thereafter.. a set up very common for late April. Before the low takes over, a fine settled weekend is forecast but with chilly uppers, there will be a return of night frosts.

 

In overview, much more springlike affair is offer in the coming days, feeling very mild in the SE, rain for all at times, becoming more settled for the weekend but with frosts returning, thereafter a possible cold NW/N blast is likely.