Manmade Climate Change Discussion

[knocker]

 

Part 2 of my conversation this week with Dr. Jason Box, who has been in Svalbard, Norway, high in the Arctic, as Northern Hemispere winter winds down and melt season is staging its return.

 

 

http://climatecrocks.com/2014/03/09/dr-jason-box-in-svalbard-part-2-tracking-the-polar-vortex-2014/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[knocker]

Tamino on the Californian drought

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/03/10/california-drought/

[knocker]

Inhomogeneous forcing and transient climate sensitivity

 

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses^{1, 2, 3} have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10–15 years during which forcing has increased markedly⁴. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities^{5, 6}. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO₂. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO₂ in present models and assessments⁷ (<1.3 °C) is very unlikely.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2136.html

Edited March 10, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Interesting if we are nipping back to the past.

 

Warm, Wet Times Spurred Medieval Mongol Rise Genghis Khan—and his army of men on horseback—benefitted from boom in grasslandsRead more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/warm-wet-times-spurred-medieval-mongol-rise-180950030/#O7x3CA8ImLymfmeG.99 

Edited March 10, 2014 by knocker

[jonboy]

 

Interesting if we are nipping back to the past.

 

Warm, Wet Times Spurred Medieval Mongol Rise Genghis Khan—and his army of men on horseback—benefitted from boom in grasslandsRead more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/warm-wet-times-spurred-medieval-mongol-rise-180950030/#O7x3CA8ImLymfmeG.99 

 

 

True knocker many good and bad consequencies. If we warm will we be less reliant on russian gas but if we cool we will be more reliant. In many respects I hope we warm!!!!

[knocker]

True knocker many good and bad consequencies. If we warm will we be less reliant on russian gas but if we cool we will be more reliant. In many respects I hope we warm!!!!

 

Interesting that you boil down the consequences of climate change to us being less reliant on Russian gas. A somewhat, how shall I put it, insular point of view.

 

Regarding the Mongols.

 

 

The current occupants of Mongolia, though, are now dealing with a period of much harsher climate than what was experienced in the early 1200s. The region suffered a drought from 2002 to 2009, which, the tree rings reveal, was as bad in length and lack of precipitation as what was seen in the 1180s and hotter than anything in the 1,112-year record.

 

A new invasion has taken place, but one far different than what Genghis Khan led: People from rural areas are flooding into Mongolia's capital, Ulaanbaatar. Unusually cold and long winter of 2009 to 2010 killed at least 8 million animals, about 17 percent of the nation’s herd. Many herders lost their livelihoods and nearly half a million migrated to Ulaanbaatar in search of jobs. Weather, it seems, can make invaders of us in one way or another.

 

Edited March 10, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-58#entry2944320

 

 

What you are saying is it's OK to subvert and distort science because you have decided it is for the greater good.Therein lies the problem and explanation of why the issue is contentious.

 

I have no idea to whom this piece of nonsense is adressed so won't even attempt to dignify it with a reply.

 

 

it is also a problem when people realise they have been lied to as they will reject all those good green objectives that have been put forward as the only way to say the planet

 

Instead of throwing out general accusations could you be more precise and point out where, and by whom, hundreds of scientists in various fields have manipulated data and lied to the public.

 

And if you blaming the lack of energy policy in the UK over thirty years on the scientists look no further than Germany.

 

http://climatecrocks..._medium=twitter

Edited March 10, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Anthony Watts and Andrew Bolt want "Lights out for the Great Barrier Reef"

 

The Great Barrier Reef is under threat from more than one source. Those sources include climate change.  Dr. Selina Ward and Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg have prepared a report for Earth Hour on the Great Barrier Reef.  You can download it here.

The report discusses the main threats to the reef under the headings of temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise and storms.

 

Expert-in-everything-nothing Andrew Bolt doesn't like the Great Barrier Reef

 

 

Andrew Bolt has used the report to write another of his diatribes against Australian icons (archived here). Actually it's mainly an article saying how "scientists don't know nuffin'".  In particular, Andrew Bolt, huddled over his keyboard 3,000 km away in Melbourne claims to know more about the Great Barrier Reef that the world's top authorities.  Andrew has a particular dislike of Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg of the University of Queensland.

Anthony Watts laps it up (archived here). Anthony of course, lives much further away from the Great Barrier Reef than Andrew does.  Still, Anthony's motto is "all the scientists are wrong" (except science deniers like Richard Lindzen).  Anthony wrote:

Edited March 11, 2014 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I'll fetch this snippet through here as the 'climate flip' thread does not appear very popular.

 

Some interesting 'facts' emerged the other night whilst watching a Nat geo prog on Bermuda's flooded sink holes. The fossil stalagmites in the bases of the caves brings us the chance of reconstructing the past climate back tens of thousands of years. It became apparent that there was a band of haematite immediately before known climate shifts. This iron was traced back to Saharan wind blown sand deposits and appear to signal an upcoming climate flip.

 

The programme went on to explain that Saharan dust storms have seen a ten fold increase since the 1950's. Is this another signal that we are on the verge of 'climate flip'?

 

Is the loss of the Arctic Sea ice cover the final tip that will spin Earth up to a warmer climate state?

[knocker]

Fracking in Public Forests Leaves Long Trail of Damages, Struggling State Regulators

http://desmogblog.com/2014/03/11/industry-pushes-more-fracking-nation-s-public-forests-state-regulators-struggling-police-marcellus-drillers

[knocker]

The Red Faces of the Solar Skeptics

 

In both Europe and the United States, generous public subsidies including tax breaks and feed-in tariffs requiring utilities to buy back consumer-generated electricity that feeds into the grid have allowed solar photovoltaics to achieve vastly lower unit costs. But these subsidies are dwarfed by historical taxpayer support of both fossil-fuel and nuclear-generated electricity. The International Energy Agency warns that continuing fossil-fuel subsidies contribute significantly to global environmental problems.

 

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/03/10/the-red-faces-of-the-solar-skeptics/?smid=tw-share

Edited March 11, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Cloudy forecast

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/cloudy-forecast

[knocker]

Some comment by NASA on the Drew Shindell sensitivity study.

 

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/march/long-term-warming-likely-to-be-significant-despite-recent-slowdown/#.Ux-FQ86cSpB

[Gray-Wolf]

Canada sea ice worst in decades  http://ca.news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-warns-bad-ice-atlantic-canada-ships-173704122.html

 

Why, oh Why, oh Why, can this peripheral ice be 'eye catching' when so much of the inner Arctic ice is missing??? Could folk imagine just how low ice levels would be if the cold American/Canadian winter had not impacted Baffin/St Lawrence? If ever I saw a "Look! Squirrel!" this is it!!!

 

The truth is the record warmth over the Arctic Basin this past winter ( due to it losing it's cold into the U.S.) has meant that the small gains we saw last Sept was all gone by December and even though 2012 was a record low year ( 18% lower than the past record low) we are now awaiting melt season at lower area/extent than 2012.

 

As we know the sea ice KL highlights will be gone by the end of April ( when melt season starts in earnest) so what does it matter at all?

[knocker]

The sun's Wattage dims and the Potty Peer casts a shadow.

 

Anthony Watts throws Nicola Scafetta to the wolves

 

Today Anthony Watts from wattupwiththat tossed Nicola Scafetta to the wolves.  He's got an article at WUWT (archived here):

 

 

Death blow to Barycentrism: ‘On the alleged coherence between the global temperature and the sun’s movement’Posted on March 11, 2014 by Anthony Watts

 

People send me stuff.

 

Tonight I got an email that contained a link to a paper that takes on the wonky claims related to barycentrism and Earth’s climate, specifically as it relates to Nicola Scafetta’s 2010 and 2012 papers. This new paper taking on the Scafetta claims will be published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, April 2014. The author is Sverre Holm Department of Informatics, University of Oslo, Norway.

 

Here's a link to it in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and, since you probably don't have access to the journal, here's the paper itself.

 

http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/03/anthony-watts-throws-nicola-scafetta-to.html

Edited March 13, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Published on Mar 13, 2014

The still-emerging drought in California and the American west may become the biggest climate story of the decade. I interviewed a number of scientists, in California, and across the country, on how climate change can effect drought, and atmospheric cycles in general.

 

[knocker]

Can we make better graphs of global temperature history? -

 

 

I’m writing this post to see if our audience can help out with a challenge: Can we collectively produce some coherent, properly referenced, open-source, scalable graphics of global temperature history that will be accessible and clear enough that we can effectively out-compete the myriad inaccurate and misleading pictures that continually do the rounds on social media? - See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/03/can-we-make-better-graphs-of-global-temperature-history/#sthash.F2NT9Tor.dpuf

 

Edited March 13, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

New Mexico Snow

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/03/13/new-mexico-snow/

[knocker]

All that agony, yet US winter (Dec-Feb) came in only 34th coldest on record

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/tmp/3/110/0/2/1895-2014?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

[Interitus]

All that agony, yet US winter (Dec-Feb) came in only 34th coldest on record

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/tmp/3/110/0/2/1895-2014?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1901&endbaseyear=2000

 

And despite that, no lower 48 state winter cold records but one warm record

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201312-201402.gif

[Gray-Wolf]

And despite that, no lower 48 state winter cold records but one warm record

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201312-201402.gif

 

So why the perception of such a 'cold ' season over there?

 

Are folk looking for high temps every season? Are folks pushing to disprove any warming Are folk trying to make any weather event that involves 'cold' into something other than 'natural Variation' and if so, Why?

[Styx]

Whoever was the originator of the term "polar vortex", a term which got popular currency for the first time, gets credit in my view for the hyped up media obsession which followed.

[knocker]

Some pertinent comments from Eli.

 

http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/since-no-bunny-reads-comments.html

[Polar Maritime]

[VillagePlank]

Whoever was the originator of the term "polar vortex", a term which got popular currency for the first time, gets credit in my view for the hyped up media obsession which followed.

 

As far as I can tell it was this chap

 

http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=Df4vAAAAYAAJ&pg=PA430&dq=%22polar+vortex%22&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=%22polar%20vortex%22&f=false

 

I suspect he's dead now.

Edited March 14, 2014 by Sparkicle