Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Keraunic]

Which is the best setting to hear sferics on the radio......SW, LW, MW or...what please?

[Convective]

Thursday and Friday could bring some good heavy localised thunderstorms or at least heavy localised showers to many parts. Friday in particular with CAPE and LI favourable as well as low surface wind speeds.

Edited May 13, 2013 by Convective

[Coast]

Which is the best setting to hear sferics on the radio......SW, LW, MW or...what please?

 

I think it used to be MW?

[Stuart]

what a big let down here no storms maybe wed

[Lauren]

Blimey, it's all gone a bit convective here. You'd be forgiven for thinking we were in the middle of a bad thunderstorm with the rain and wind............we're not though

[Supacell]

Missed out on the storms today and looks like Wednesday's chances have gone for me or anywhere within chase range. Possibly scuppered by tomorrow nights heavy rainfall lasting into Wednesday thus likely to be a much cloudier day than originally anticipated

[Stuart]

Last Update: 1510UTC Monday 13th May 2013
 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #018
ISSUED: 1510UTC MONDAY 13TH MAY 2013

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - SOUTHWEST ENGLAND, SOUTH WALES, MIDLANDS & NORTHEAST ENGLAND
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1800UTC WEDNESDAY 16TH MAY 2013

A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW TO ~980MB MOVING NORTHEAST UNDER THE ASCENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

DISCUSSION:
THERE IS IMPROVING MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A LOW CROSSES UNDER THE JETSTREAM TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPS RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUCH FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INTENSE RAINFALL ALONG IT'S WESTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS, WHILE ENCOURAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 70MPH THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ENGLAND. PRECIPIATION ACCUMULATIONS OF 30MM WIDELY, WITH POSSIBLY 60MM LOCALLY, WITHIN A 12 HOUR PERIOD ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXCESS SURFACE WATER, RAPID RUN-OFF FROM STEEP SLOPES AND FLASH FLOODING OF INFRASTRUCTURE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK OF SUDDEN RIVER FLOODING OVER HIGH GROUND. WINDS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MAY BE DAMAGING, ESPECIALLY FOR EXPOSED COASTS, WHILE SOME STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHWEST. WINTRY MIXTURES OF PRECIPIATION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF WALES AND SOUTHWEST AS THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVES AWAY, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AND SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ALL FACTORS EXCEEDING ACTIVATION CRITERIA

 

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

[Convective]

Interesting views over the harbour and bay at the moment! http://www.dotet.co.uk/index.php?type=webcam&id=25

 

Earlier on..

 

 

Now...

[Gibby]

I have issued a Weather Warning for the folks in my area on my website from the four possible factors from tomorrow's event which could make tomorrow a very noteworthy day. i.e. heavy rain, strong winds, low temperatures and snow. Not bad for mid May.

[Bluebreezer54]

Which is the best setting to hear sferics on the radio......SW, LW, MW or...what please?

MW I think......also known as AM on some radios. I still revert to my dirt cheap MW radio for picking up sferics in the vicinity.

[Convective]

Potential for some torrential showers in Northern Ireland tomorrow. Slow moving too leading the the risk of localised flash flooding as well as plenty of lightning possible through Northern Ireland and South-West to North-East Scotland through much of tomorrow.

[nitro_deluxe]

I think it used to be MW?

Indeed. LW can more often than not get interference from storms on the mainland as and when they're occurring.

[MP-R]

Not the UK I know, but if anyone wants to check out blitzortung, currently watching a half decent lightning display to the south of Madrid.

[Coast]

Morning storm lovers! Another busy day of weather then with the low crossing the country?

 

These two caught my eye first thing;

 

 

 

CB potential virtually nationwide:

 

 

With a dollop of CAPE across Scotland again through the afternoon:

 

 

 

 

The South West look to be in with some potential of heavy rain, possibly hail and maybe further up, some wet snow (yes, this really is May!!)

 

 

 

Two areas of reasonable convergence zones look to be in place later, in Scotland and in Wales/SW:

 

 

 

 

Looks like the UK could have almost anything thrown at it today, with potential for an isolated thunderstorm in Scotland and Northern England, sleet or wet snow in the hills of Wales and possibly the Northern Midlands and an active area in the SW with gusty winds, heavy rain possibly hail.

 

Never a dull moment with our weather!!! 

Edited May 14, 2013 by Coast

[The PIT]

Great one or two light showers for us again.

[Stuart]

just hope it better luck this time but met office saying best of the sunshine around Inverness area

[Tamara]

Last Update: 1510UTC Monday 13th May 2013 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #018ISSUED: 1510UTC MONDAY 13TH MAY 2013

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

. A LOW CROSSES UNDER THE JETSTREAM TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPS RAPIDLY UP THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SUCH FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INTENSE RAINFALL ALONG IT'S WESTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS, WHILE ENCOURAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY ABOVE 70MPH THROUGH THE CHANNEL AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST ENGLAND.

This is exaggerated, there is no suggestion anywhere of wind speeds that strong. Highest gusts up to about 50mph on coasts perhaps. Form what I have read of this organisation they tend to go OTT with most of the warnings they issue.

[Keraunic]

This is exaggerated, there is no suggestion anywhere of wind speeds that strong. Highest gusts up to about 50mph on coasts perhaps. Form what I have read of this organisation they tend to go OTT with most of the warnings they issue.

Probably just covering themselves. If they forecasted wind speeds of 20/30 mph and it turned out to be 70+mph they'd look pretty stupid. remember Mr Fish. :O

[Chris K]

Well Met office also mention the risk of 70mph gusts possible in a yellow warning...but not in the SE currently - more for the extreme & exposed SW areas.

Issued: 0934 on Tue 14 May 2013

Valid from: 1400 on Tue 14 May 2013

Valid to: 2200 on Tue 14 May 2013

In addition to the heavy rainfall, covered by the separate warning, indications are that a swathe of very strong winds is likely to skirt parts of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusts of wind may exceed 60 mph in a number of locations, with a risk of gusts of around 70 mph in the more exposed localities. The public should be aware that there may be localised disruption to travel and damage to trees.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

[Tamara]

Well Met office also mention the risk of 70mph gusts possible in a yellow warning...but not in the SE currently - more for the extreme & exposed SW areas.

Issued: 0934 on Tue 14 May 2013

Valid from: 1400 on Tue 14 May 2013

Valid to: 2200 on Tue 14 May 2013

In addition to the heavy rainfall, covered by the separate warning, indications are that a swathe of very strong winds is likely to skirt parts of Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly during Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusts of wind may exceed 60 mph in a number of locations, with a risk of gusts of around 70 mph in the more exposed localities. The public should be aware that there may be localised disruption to travel and damage to trees.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html

I'm surprised at that - I can't see from the model output or even from their website any sign of those windspeeds in the south west with the strongest winds out in the channel. But even there the NAE has them around gale force. Edit: NAE does indicate briefly the possibility for severe gales for a time in the very far south west

 

Edited May 14, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Chris K]

Ohh ok I was only going by the date of issue at the top. Cheers.

[A.J]

To be fair, Skywarn's warning was dated yesterday as well .....and IMO it's Estofex & to a lesser degree UKASF who have gone over board with their warnings in the past..., I've found Skywarn very good over the years

[Tamara]

Ohh ok I was only going by the date of issue at the top. Cheers.

As per above - it does seem accurate for the far south west

[Chris K]

I guess it's difficult in developing systems such as these. Either way its looking like quite a messy afternoon/evening.

I'd imagine this evening's rush hour might get quite tedious for some!

[Coast]

Is the rain and wind with the system in question likely to be associated with convective activity?

 

I guess you would be one of the best people to answer that!

I guess it constitutes a potential storm risk though