Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Nick F]

A plume??!!! My Grandparents used to talk about those way back in the day!!

 

Oi, I remember them and I'm not that old!! 

[Methuselah]

Quills? 

[Harry]

I've got every crossable digit crossed for next week...very much in hope rather than expectation at this early stage.

[Coast]

I've got every crossable digit crossed for next week...very much in hope rather than expectation at this early stage.

 

Trip to Dymchurch on the cards H????

[Summer Sun]

00z London ensembles looks good for a short lived hot thundery spell

 

[Stormyking]

Jeeezus the heavens have literally opened where im working, one very very heavy downpour!

[Supacell]

My earlier thoughts on todays potential are no more. I am thinking that too much cloud and a lack of instability will have scuppered this one. Ok, nothing was expected until this evening anyway but short of some very heavy rainfall I don't think thunderstorms will figure (aside from the odd rumble here and there). .

 

Tomorrow and Friday may need watching for the possibility of heavy showers and scattered storms, although less shear/helicity etc, so not so good for severe weather - having said that there could be some particularly strong wind gusts around any heavy showers that do form. Disorganised pulse thundery showers would be the likely outcome. You know, the type of storms that have become our most common in recent summers, although this year even these have been scarce. Even so, lightning activity is more likely over the course of tomorrow and Friday then at any time today with higher instability.

 

Next weeks plume is off on the GFS 06z apart from the far SE tip which gets grazed on Monday night, but I have a feeling it may be back on the 12z.

[Coast]

Next weeks plume is off on the GFS 06z apart from the far SE tip which gets grazed on Monday night, but I have a feeling it may be back on the 12z.

 

[Harry]

Trip to Dymchurch on the cards H????

 

If the prospects remain next week most definitely I only decide to go really once storms are firing and there's a decent chance they will move into our part of the world.

 

The Romney marsh area of Kent is perfect storm watching territory, almost akin to the US plains - great potential for photographing/observing storms.

 

Just need;

 

a.) the plume

b.) storms to fire

c.) storms to occur when I get to watch them and not be stuck in a meeting....

 

I don't ask for much really

Edited June 12, 2013 by Harry

[Evening thunder]

Both the GFS and UKMO have now reverted to cool lows and a windy autumnal one on the GFS.. nice of them to all (GFS, ECM, UKMO) to briefly show a warm/hot thundery plume and make us think perhaps we could get something interesting like that these days..

 

The Abores high ruining things for both warm settled weather fans and storm fans, directing cool unsettled weather over us once again.

 

Hey ho I guess it's back to hoping for something decent later in the summer, baring a surprise shift back to the plume again. I Wanted to get something good under our belt as such considering recent summers and the lack of such set ups..

Edited June 12, 2013 by Stormmad26

[nanu]

Sorry but the storms we may get here today is nothing compared to what my mate witnessed yesterday in indiana... just epic!!

 

[peterf]

where's part 2?

[P-M]

Sorry but the storms we may get here today is nothing compared to what my mate witnessed yesterday in indiana... just epic!!

 

 

 

EPIC - would love to be there like.  I know it was a much much smaller scale but the massive storm that hit Newcastle turned day to night almost last year - was the best I have ever seen in this country for sure.  That vid is great though thanks for sharing :-))

[Sprites]

Good luck to those that have a chance of thunderstorms today!

...E P I C !!!

[Sprites]

Ive just seen some cloud, and now i feel E P I C !!!

[Coast]

Just moving today's posts into the dedicated thread here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76896-thunderstorm-risk-thursday-13th-june/

 

Can you add your contribution in that thread for today, There is a new one to replace this one, for general convection discussion for the forthcoming days and weeks here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76968-convective-storm-risk-potential-discussion-14th-june-2013-onwards/

 

 

Cheers!!!

Edited June 13, 2013 by Coast