Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Karl83]

Amazing to see pink over Bristol!

 

[Raidan]

If it still looks like that next week then I'm interested until then I'm keeping my excitement under wraps!

[davehsug]

It won't happen, it'll be moved east as we get closer. We never get a full on hit from these plumes anymore, they just clip us, or are very transitory lasting 12-24 hours at most. To get some decent action, you need a couple of days to set it up.

[A.J]

here's a bit of storm porn for you......purely for eye candy purposes, and indeed a few parameters not in place but never the less, impressive energy shown on these FI charts.....enough potential energy, with 23c dewpoints over my house with a low level convergence in place to start nuclear fusion!....lol

 

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Framed all the above!!!! And now for the outlook..super cells spreading north followed by thunderstorms and scattered MCS...

Is that a pub run, hic.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

here's a bit of storm porn for you......purely for eye candy purposes, and indeed a few parameters not in place but never the less, impressive energy shown on these FI charts.....enough potential energy, with 23c dewpoints over my house with a low level convergence in place to start nuclear fusion!....lol

viewimage1.pbx.png viewimage2.pbx.png

viewimage3.pbx.png viewimage4.pbx.png

viewimage5.pbx.png

Two words..... IF ONLY !

[nitro_deluxe]

Can just imagine the south coast of Iceland, seeing distant lightning flick flickering away..from stuff over the UK!?

[Staffordshire]

Looks dry though? will it be hard for the CAPE to be broken? (sorry my knowledge is limited when it comes to convection)

[ZONE 51]

Was gong to remark it feels pleasantly (relatively) humid this evening with the sight of clouds pouring in from the south a fantastic change after weeks of cool dry northerlies/northeasterlies!!

MetO projecting mostly frontal activity, with some more intense spells amongst it.

I'm going to plump (for S Uk) for some embedded downpours with very sporadic occurrences of thunder and lightning (ie the majority will get no thunder at all). Further north, chances seem slightly better, but again largely frontal.

Will be interesting day/evening tomorrow of weeks of largely stagnant weather!

Yes it's quite an increase in humid/warm air mass compared to the previous evening.  Interesting I noticed golden edge small sharp cumulus and what appeared to be Altocumulus castellanus cloud only tiny but in lines at sunset, this increase in warmer and humid upper air creating them.  This is a sign of thunderstorms within 24-36hrs. It's a signal I look out for at sunset and also sunrise. An interesting day for weather for many today, precipitation GFS 18z:

 

Looking at the FAX and some model data, some widespread downpours and perhaps thunderstorms..

 

NAE 18z (above)

These are the 18z so I won't post anymore as plenty been posted for todays weather. Interested in the next update I shall be back later to take a look on here!

 

 

 

See below what Al-Cas looks like:

http://www.rmets.org/weather-and-climate/image-gallery/altocumulus-castellanus-sunset

-

Not sure if can put this here, it's about green skies during severe weather(I have experienced green sky during a severe day storm in the past)

http://optics.kulgun.net/GreenClouds/

Jumping ahead Sunday/Monday - Warm thundery air-mass:

Charts Monday.

 

-

Alot of incredible charts of many colors posted recently! CAPE..Lifted index..850s..

 

-

ESS

Edited June 12, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Supacell]

Next week does look interesting. A long way off but several different opportunities for a plume type scenario being played with on the recent model runs. The GFS 18z showed some very high temperatures (approaching the 90F mark) but it was an outlier and I think it was a case of the pub run having been on the vino. GFS 0z more believable with temperatures in the low to mid 20's but still a lot of potential for thunderstorms next week, especially in the south. 

 

As for today, it is a very complicated set up and I have to admit to being a bit stumped by this one. UKASF and Skywarn both have forecasts up, but admit the likelihood it could all go wrong. Estofex show nothing for us. My take on the charts initially tells me that storms will be hard pressed to form today, but the moisture levels, deep layer shear and helicity come together with values easily high enough to turn any storms that do develop into organised possibly severe storms. Problem may be storms actually developing which I think will be a struggle.

 

We need an expert opinion I think

[VillagePlank]

Don't see it happening today, perhaps (very) outside odds in the Midlands, but that's really pushing it,

 

 

Even the Birmingham skew-t doesn't look hopeful,

 

[VillagePlank]

Next wednesday looks on, still,

 

 

The warm, moist air is clearly visible on the theta-e chart, too,

 

 

Edited June 12, 2013 by Sparkicle

[AWD]

Worth noting Spartickle that there is some high levels of CIN over and around the South East too, something we need to be careful of if this were to verify;

[Coast]

Morning storm fans!

 

Nothing in our patch for today from ESTOFEX, but strangely, Skywarn have a severe warning out?

 

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #019

ISSUED: 1430UTC TUESDAY 11TH JUNE 2013

 

SKYWARN UK FORECASTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS AS FOLLOWS:

STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS - ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHERN SCOTLAND

LARGE, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HAIL - ENGLAND, WALES

TORNADOES - EASTERN, SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN ENGLAND

 

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC UNTIL 2100UTC WEDNESDAY 12TH JUNE 2013

 

A ROBUST WARM AIRMASS WILL BE ENCOURAGED NORTHWARD FROM THE BISCAY AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHARPLY OVERSPREADING UPPER JETSTREAM AND STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS. DESTABILISATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT, TRIPLE POINT AND SOUTH OF THE JET NOSE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG CONVECTION IN A HIGHLY SATURATED PROFILE.

 

DISCUSSION: EARLY IN THE PERIOD, HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF ENGLAND, AS A WARMER THAN AVERAGE AIRMASS SURGES NORTHEAST. THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADS THIS PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTION DESPITE ONLY SLIGHT INSTABILITY. LATER IN THE PERIOD, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER NORTHERN IRELAND, WALES AND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND, WITH FURTHER INITIATION FROM THE RESURGENT JETSTREAM AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO WALES AND ENGLAND. THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN ELEVATED, DAYTIME HEATING AND A LONGER OVERLAND FETCH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS ALL PARTS OF ENGLAND AND PERHAPS SCOTLAND. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UK WILL BE AT GREATER RISK OF STRONGER CONVECTION, WITH INTENSE RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL. ALL AREAS HAVE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND SHEAR FOR ENHANCED CHANCES OF TORNADOES, THOUGH AGAIN THIS RISK IS GREATER FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

 

GFS not going with that analysis for today, lightning wizard charts have:

 

 

No MLCAPE and SBCAPE limited to Scotland:

 

 

There is a feature coming in with the front to the SW:

 

 

Low level lapse rates are fair, but higher levels non existent:

 

 

Some convective gusts on their way though:

 

 

I''ll go and check NMM, but I'm not convinced about today so far

[Coast]

Loving the look of GFS free atmosphere for London form the 18th June - off the scale!!

 

 

Manchester not bad either

 

 

Aberdeen not doing anything then, but on the 15th there's a bit of a peak:

 

 

 

Night time storms??!!!!!

 

[VillagePlank]

Worth noting Spartickle that there is some high levels of CIN over and around the South East too, something we need to be careful of if this were to verify;

image.jpg

 

Yes, surface heating is probably all important

[Coast]

 

NMM charts are not inspiring for today:

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 12, 2013 by Coast

[Coast]

Blimey, how good do these look for 00Z charts, even though it's a week away!!!

 

 

[Adi F]

Lets see how it pans out, its still a long way off. 

[Stormyking]

Round 2 next week possibly?!!!! Lets hope so fingers crossed

[AWD]

Round 2 next week possibly?!!!! Lets hope so fingers crossed

We've had a round 1??? ;)

[Karl83]

We've had a round 1???

Well he has the lucky begger!

[P-M]

Not sure where this belongs but have you seen the write up regarding the storm potential across the US?  They reckon 1in5 people will be affected from Tuesday - talking about some serious weather here over the next few days like...

 

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2013/06/12/unusually-massive-line-storms-may-affect-one-in-five-americans/

[Nick F]

Next week shaping up nicely on both ECM and GFS 00z runs, Atlantic trough disrupts SE towards Iberia and BoB and becomes negatively tilted with the UK coming under the NW edge of a warm moist airmass advecting N and NE across Europe ahead of the trough and low over SW Europe. Increasing prospects for storms for us on the edge of this plume, as cooler Atlantic airmass to the west interacts. Not getting hopes up too much yet though, as seen the potential go pear-shaped so many times nearer the time!

 

Not really seeing much potential for today, GFS has downgraded instability, with alot of cloud cover tending to limit potential, so not issuing a storm forecast for now. Will keep an eye on northern England later, as there is chance that some comvection could occur - which could organise given an environment of strong deep-layer shear.

[Coast]

Increasing prospects for storms for us on the edge of this plume, as cooler Atlantic airmass to the west interacts. 

 

A plume??!!! My Grandparents used to talk about those way back in the day!! :lol: