Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 small and 1 large storm heading out to sea now I think!

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 small and 1 large storm heading out to sea now I think!

 

EDIT: only 1 large storm heading out across the channel.

[Ben Sainsbury]

UKASF generally going for nothing.

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

Upper low continues to reside over Biscay/N Iberia while a broad surface high extends across northern Britain. On the northern flank of the upper low westward moisture advection will occur across southern Britain through the first half of the forecast period.

 

Discussion:

... SW ENGLAND ...

Remnant instability associated with a weak Theta-E ridge (indicative of a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) will migrate eastwards across southern parts of Britain through the early morning hours, with some elevated convection expected. The net result is a few elevated showers (typically a few 'large convection drops' for a short period of time falling from mid-level cloud). The probability of these showers being electrified is considered too low to warrant a SLGT (ie less than 5% at any given location).

Greater attention is turned to the Devon, Cornwall and (perhaps) Dorset/Somerset area through the mid/latter afternoon and early evening. Strong insolation and local wind convergence could allow isolated to scattered convection to occur, and with sufficient upslope flow over Dartmoor/Bodmin in particular may allow one or two heavy showers or isolated thunderstorms to form.
Several models (GFS / WRF / ECMWF / NAE / UK4) simulate >800 J/kg SBCAPE, with the greatest convergence located along/just offshore of the north Cornwall coast - should a shower/storm form, then this would be the most likely area for development. Given forecast CAPE values, some small hail would be possible from a stronger core. However, main concern is excessive mid-/high-level cloud during the morning/early afternoon hours following moisture advection from overnight elevated convection. This may inhibit/limit strong insolation, and hence for now the probability of a thunderstorm developing is considered near 10%.

 

http://www.ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/246

[Joey.G]

For the storm starved, you can see flashes on this webcam atm

 

http://www.vision-environnement.com/web/saint-jouin-bruneval-la-plage/

Edited June 6, 2013 by Joey.G

[paul m]

For the storm starved, you can see flashes on this webcam atm

 

http://www.vision-environnement.com/web/saint-jouin-bruneval-la-plage/

Cheers for that

[Ben Sainsbury]

Storm heading north from France not coping too bad!

EDIT: Seems to be dying now from latest update, surprise surprise.

Edited June 6, 2013 by interestingweather

[Convective]

B. E. A. UTIFUL.. If only it would happen...

 

[nitro_deluxe]

Now that maybe worth a quick hop over the channel...

Come to daddy

[Raidan]

Its times like this I wish I lived on the south coast.

[Adi F]

I am sat down the seafront watching the occasional flash. But it is a long way off.

[paul m]

I am sat down the seafront watching the occasional flash. But it is a long way off.

Love those distant storms that show up the clouds.

[Adi F]

All I can see is the occasional flash in the cloud tops I have not even got the camera out. I think the lightning is still on the coast of France.

[nitro_deluxe]

Solent apparently nudged 25c yesterday, still very mild temps being recorded right now.Must be lovely.

Bar a few well scattered possibly heftier showers in the far SW maybe parts of S.SW Wales, odd sferic not impossible, can't see anything too widespread this time around - all of course subject to changes and latest SP on here in due course.

They'll come eventually, patience is a virtue lol.

Edited June 6, 2013 by triple_x1

[Adi F]

I am sat down the seafront in a T-shirt there is breeze picking up but it is lovely. I am at the bracklesham.

[ZONE 51]

The IOW storm looks as though it's tracking northwest from there.

thats northwest i meant! just going to merge my posts into one

Edited June 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Paul]

Very active looking radar / atd right now

 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

[Paul]

452 strikes in the last hour on the ATD, not bad!

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

452 strikes in the last hour on the ATD, not bad!

 

452.png

 

Paul, are these charts ever archived, i.e. where I could look back at my records and check out a given timeframe when I suspected that I heard Thunder but was unable to confirm at the time.  

 

Rambling on, but I guess you know what I'm trying to say.

[Coast]

I've opened up a specific thread for today's risk here:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76894-thunderstorm-risk-7th-june-2013/

 

I'll move the relevant posts over and lock this thread temporally!

[Coast]

Thread back open for upcoming possibilities and general convective chat 

[ZONE 51]

Still looking interesting for next Thursday:

keep watch on the changes on the FAX charts. I see the warm moist plume over France/Spain moving north east could just gets things going over SE UK. Changes possible if not likely.

 

ESS

 

--

(Could someone move to Thursday thread sorry! also could you take this part in brackets out thanks)

Edited June 9, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

I'm seeing GFS going for Friday into Saturday in the South this morning:

 

 

 

A possible repeat of this Friday just gone?

 

[Tamara]

The GFS has come in line with the Euros and moved the plume eastwards into the continent

[Harry]

Tamara, this is not happy news! This is tragic news of the highest order!!!! 

 

Not that I take any notice of convective charts until T+24 to T+48 MAX!