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Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

Paul

By Paul
in Storms & Severe Weather

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

I'd like to see what NMM has later on Friday/early Saturday, that might be the make or break time for people wanting to chase over The Channel or looking to see anything from our shores?

 

Main problem is convective triggers, I reckon. Both theta-e and theta-w show a warm moist tongue of air extending west across from the low countries,

 

post-5986-0-13867200-1370428732_thumb.gipost-5986-0-87803400-1370428741_thumb.gi

 

which is normall OK for t/storm formation - but what's going to set it off at midnight? Not much around, so no home-grown ones - there might be some vertical shear (difficult to see this far in advance) It might be suitable to fuel French storms advecting nortwards, though, which is why, I reckon, that GFS is showing precipation for about the same time.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted (edited)

I spy convection Posted Image Shallow though.. Posted Image

 

Posted Image
Edited by Convective
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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Unlikely to be thunder here today but really is pretty cloudy here now and breeze is up quite a bit (after a sunny start)

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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

I am glad there is only a slight chance of storms this week I am so bloody busy I don't need to distraction to be honest but I am in Friedrichshafen, Germany for a week or so next month so I am hoping for lots of Stürme und Blitz ;)

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted

I'd like to see what NMM has later on Friday/early Saturday, that might be the make or break time for people wanting to chase over The Channel or looking to see anything from our shores?

 

It's in range on the nmm-18 Posted Image

 

post-2-0-22475100-1370442055_thumb.png

 

(Note that this is still in beta, and the scale is set quite low, so shows reds when in reality it's not quite that dramatic!)

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

It's in range on the nmm-18 Posted Image

 

Posted Imagenmm181.png

 

Damn that looks lovely Posted Image

 

How much influence have you got in the positioning and severity of thunderstorms Paul?

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

No comments on today? Swathe of rain down the west of scotland but too far to the west for us here

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Heavy showers breaking out across Scotland as planned, although nothing thundery as yet. 

 

I am liking the look of that NMM chart - and this is Sunday morning, I wonder how Sunday evening will look?

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
Posted

If I had any I'd not be sat on a pc right now, I'd be rich and sat on a beach somewhere, wirelessly ensuring that the weather stayed nice. The 00z had it missing the south coast, so sure to be some twists and turns over the next few days.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

If I had any I'd not be sat on a pc right now, I'd be rich and sat on a beach somewhere, wirelessly ensuring that the weather stayed nice.

Posted Image

The 00z had it missing the south coast, so sure to be some twists and turns over the next few days

This one is going to be close and I hope it's not another heart-breaker. Interesting times maybe for the potential along the Channel coast - one to keep an eye on over the next few days. Posted Image

I am liking the look of that NMM chart - and this is Sunday morning, I wonder how Sunday evening will look?

It's like a soap opera again!!!! Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Adi F Enthusiast

Adi F

Posted
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
  • Location: Chichester, West Sussex
Posted

It's in range on the nmm-18 Posted Image

 

Posted Imagenmm181.png

 

(Note that this is still in beta, and the scale is set quite low, so shows reds when in reality it's not quite that dramatic!)

Now that would be nice if it comes off and produces. I will be happy to verify if anything comes from it. Posted Image

If I had any I'd not be sat on a pc right now, I'd be rich and sat on a beach somewhere, wirelessly ensuring that the weather stayed nice. The 00z had it missing the south coast, so sure to be some twists and turns over the next few days.

 

And here was me thinking your were Paul Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

GFS now trying to progress things with this just rolling out for Friday evening:

 

Posted Image

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Some sharp showers in places now! Maybe a few sferics soon! Northern Ireland and Cumbria area!

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todd1970 Newbie

todd1970

Posted
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
  • Location: East Kilbride (Glasgow)
Posted

No comments on today? Swathe of rain down the west of scotland but too far to the west for us here

 

 

Dont be silly , its not in the London or SE area , so it wont get a mention.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

GFS not siding with NMM for Sunday so far:

 

Posted Image

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)

Well GFS hinting at a more northerly approach?post-18097-0-31747300-1370449672_thumb.ppost-18097-0-47312700-1370449682_thumb.p

 

Li's -3 and cape reaching 1000; not too bad?

Edited by interestingweather
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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Newport 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
Posted

Well GFS hinting at a more northerly approach?Posted Imagecharts 1.pngPosted Imagecharts 2.png

 

Li's -3 and cape reaching 1000; not too bad?

 Yes lets see if it continues to show this in the next few runs! Would be great to catch a lil something.

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nitro_deluxe Contributor

nitro_deluxe

Posted
Posted

Anyone planning a quick jaunt across the channel..could initially aim for Dunkirk? possible base for any action or should things develop here.

 

Of course, keeping a beady eye on things much closer to the UK - this continuing storm drought can't go on for ever, surely? no way..

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Raidan Enthusiast

Raidan

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
Posted

I'm not going to chance popping over the channel now,some advice from friends and neighbours has sunk in so I'm going to stay in the uk and hope for the best.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

I think South UK could get night thunderstorms this weekend..

Edited by ElectricSnowStorm
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted

GFS downplays chance of French imports this morning, with most of the activity not even making it to the channel,

 

post-5986-0-17482500-1370497472_thumb.gi

 

After the weekend, all eyes West for a more zonal (and less convective outlook)

 

post-5986-0-93193800-1370497541_thumb.gi

 

:(

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

GFS downplays chance of French imports this morning, with most of the activity not even making it to the channel,

 

Posted Image

 

Yep, GFS going for a complete retreat at the moment and even the activity on the continent is hardly worth the ferry ticket to find it.

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

NMM also pulling away from our shores at the moment:

 

post-6667-0-16170400-1370500542_thumb.pn post-6667-0-56578400-1370500549_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-27092600-1370500548_thumb.pn

Edited by Coast
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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

On further analysis, it looks like the tongue of warm and wet air has simply migrated 200 miles south,

 

post-5986-0-47351200-1370502652_thumb.gipost-5986-0-76062800-1370502674_thumb.gi

 

The reason is not simply a GFS artefact, but rather mesoscale modelling between today's and yesterday's 00z runs,

 

post-5986-0-44449600-1370502847_thumb.gipost-5986-0-31851600-1370502857_thumb.gi

 

It's hard to know which one looks more realistic, and it certainly looks like the jet and subsequently the low forming to our north west looks far from resolved. So, perhaps, a modicom of hope that it resolves to allow the stuff on the continent to advect northwards to Britain. Personally, that little kink over London, on today's, doesn't 'look right' to me, and such details rarely come true this far out.

Edited by Sparkicle
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

So, perhaps, a modicom of hope that it resolves to allow the stuff on the continent to advect northwards to Britain.

 

 

Always!

 

Personally, that little kink over London, on today's, doesn't 'look right' to me

 

 

Posted Image

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