Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Thundery wintry showers]

Travelled from Norwich to Thirsk today and saw some fairly impressive convection about, and at around 8:30am a hail shower in Norwich provided 50% cover on the ground.  There were a few more hailstorms during the journey, but I didn't notice any thunder or lightning.

[Coast]

Some amazing skyscapes as I travelled out of Mid Sussex yesterday evening and into East Sussex, it was like the Observers book of clouds. Later on there was a huge cell that passed to the East (somewhere over Hastings?) and must have dumped some rain or hail, but no thunder and lightning.

 

Right, what has today got in store if anything? Let me check the bookmarks.....

[Coast]

No forecasts from the dedicated sites today, so do they know something or are they all taking Friday off as a long weekend?

 

GFS overview shows the nearest activity is jsut over the Channel in France:

 

 

Which is where any (weak) MLCAPE seems to be:

 

 

 

Although again like yesterday, there ae higher alues of SBCAPE around:

 

 

and this feature around Wiltshire into the Home Counties and surrounding, that may be worth watching:

 

 

 

 

Lapse rates are steep again like yesterday:

 

 

With a small tornado risk in that SW/Mids/Home counties area:

 

 

 

NW Extra NMM has the whole thing more to the East, but none the less, very interesting:

 

MLCAPE is up according to that forecast:

 

 

As is SB CAPE:

 

 

Lapse rates on a parallel to GFS but again, slightly more to the East covering areas we saw hail in yesterday:

 

 

and the contentious TT Index (if you value it) is very encouraging:

 

 

So take your pick today, I'll get some Soundings to see if they give us any more of a hint and hopefully a proper forecaster can make sense of it shortly!!

[Coast]

Birmingham for midday, not amazing but this may be the Northern extent of the possibilities for today perhaps?

 

 

London about the same later in the afternoon:

 

 

Herstmonceux (from NW Extra) doesn't reflect the GFS or NMM and is disappointing:

 

 

In fact a quick look across a few towns covered in the area of the charts from my previous post on NW Extra doesn't give much of a chance at all through this afternoon? 

 

Damn, are we down to observations again?

[Adi F]

I am going to be out this afternoon as I fell there is some potential but from Chichester I am not sure whether to go east or west yet. At least I am well placed to react to observations. 

[Coast]

I am going to be out this afternoon as I fell there is some potential but from Chichester I am not sure whether to go east or west yet. 

 

You might want to try North! I'm thinking East or North East maybe from your location?

[Adi F]

Yeah I plan to start inland and work down to the coast, there is a small potential for some water spouts early evening so I plan to be on the coast by then. 

[VillagePlank]

For Heathrow,

 

 

Cloud heights are higher (c.480hPa), the environment looks moderately convective (KI). Small amounts of CAPE and some convective inhibition ... not your classic armageddon t/storm setup. Can't rule out the odd storm, but doesn't look widespread ...

[Coast]

I plan to be on the coast by then. 

 

I'll watch out then...... :unsure: 

[Adi F]

LOL I might see you down the seafront! 

[Coast]

LOL I might see you down the seafront! 

 

I'll be under the pier with a bottle of White Lightning!!!! 

[Adi F]

Yeah I have seen you under there many times before, I always wondered what you kept in all those carrier bags! 

[Convective]

So it would appear that next weeks 'potential' has died away.. again. God I hate this country's climate...

[Coast]

God I hate this country's climate...

 

Please don't book a flight out of Heathrow on a BA Airbus today though eh???

[Convective]

Please don't book a flight out of Heathrow on a BA Airbus today though eh???

Haha I'll do my best Funny you should say that though, I have been on 2 Flybe Dash 8 Q400's this morning.. That was fun in the gales.. -_-

[nitro_deluxe]

I'll be under the pier with a bottle of White Lightning!!!! 

LOL to some it's the nearest they get to a half decent light show :)Anyone got any storms yet?

[AWD]

Pretty sure I heard thunder to the east of Bristol a minute ago. Reports suggest sferics detected from a cell near Bath.

Definetly had a heavy shower anyway, that I did see.

[nitro_deluxe]

Rash of showers breaking out outside the main 'cartwheel' of precipitation...

Could get a few sparky ones later.

[Andy Bown]

Pretty sure I heard thunder to the east of Bristol a minute ago. Reports suggest sferics detected from a cell near Bath.Definetly had a heavy shower anyway, that I did see.

Doing a rough calculation based on estimated mileage between towns/cities these heavy showers are racing N-S at approx 60mph!

[jethro]

Just drove home from near Bristol through an amazing downpour - wipers on stupid manic speed and I still couldn't see, plenty of hail in the mix too. It's also incredibly windy, I imagine the gusts are likely to bring some trees down, not to mention my poor fence.

 

Is it really nearly summer? Feel like I've fallen asleep and woken up in November.

[galacticwarrior]

Man, the wind was blwonig so hard and the rain lashing down so hard I though lower purley would be underwater at 3pm!

[Adi F]

I am well placed if anything comes out of this. The numbers are LI, not great figures but there is a chance of something. I have tracked the area on convection from Bristol. Currently sat on portsdown hill watching a heavy shower blocking the view of the Pompy peg and the I of W.

Help if I added the image

[Tim Bland]

What Ap is that Adi?

[Adi F]

It's called airoplus an aviation weather app. It costs around £17 a year although I think they do a free trial. It has a very basic skew-t,CAPE and LI along with other data. It also links to Estofex, NOAA, met office among others. And it has world wide coverage. I like it when I am on the road.

[VillagePlank]

Hail piling up on windscreens, thunderstorm observed (one flash, so far) to my due West!