Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[AWD]

Although there are a few posts dotted around the web mentioning Bristol I'm sticking to my theory that nothing will happen here today and probably no where else in the uk either,Looking forward to seeing if we get a decent hot summer and get some thundery breakdowns.

Ahh, your looking for something like this;Push the trough a bit further north would be nice. Edited May 30, 2013 by AWD

[Panayiotis]

Although there are a few posts dotted around the web mentioning Bristol I'm sticking to my theory that nothing will happen here today and probably no where else in the uk either,Looking forward to seeing if we get a decent hot summer and get some thundery breakdowns.

Looking likely that the showers will give Bristol a direct hit, should be with you in the next hour or so, we will have to see if they produce anything for you...

Edited May 30, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Raidan]

Indeed AWD that will do nicely,I really hope we do get a good summer and some good thundery breakdowns I think all the years we haven't really got anything I think Mother Nature owes a few good thunderstorms maybe 2013 could be our year and other members that are unhappy with their areas lack of thunderstorms,but don't we say this every year

[Raidan]

Thanks for the update Panaylotis haven't really took any notice of what's going on since about 5pm,looking to my east it looks a bit eerie but its a will it won't it senario,I hope it does but sticking to my guns from earliar and will say it won't which is the all to common outcome.

[AWD]

Heavy rain shower here.

[Raidan]

Heavy rain here now also

[A.J]

no storms but I certainly drove through some torrential downpours this evening from Redditch to Swindon!

[nitro_deluxe]

Some nice crisp cloud tops knocking about today..close call though, that Brum cell certainly looked the biz..

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

Heights will progressively rise across northern Britain during Monday, between two upper troughs - one located over the Atlantic, the other over Scandinavia. At the surface, a strengthening anticyclone will be centred over the northern North Sea, providing largely dry conditions across most parts of the British Isles.

 

Discussion:

... IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND ...

Continued moisture advection from the east throughout the day coupled with surface heating will increase convective chances. Local wind convergence and/or upslope flow should allow a few convective showers/isolated thunderstorms to form during the afternoon and early evening hours, particularly along/near high ground. However, both DLS and storm motion are very weak thus such showers/storms will be poorly organised and of the pulse-variety (since it is likely that downdrafts will cut-off initial updrafts).

Forecast soundings suggest ELTs could be as low as -30C, hence the potential for lightning exists although it is likely to be quite sporadic and isolated in nature, thus any given location within the SLGT has a low probability (10%) of lightning occurring. Main concern is excessive low cloud and mist during the morning, but this should lift and become more broken by the afternoon.

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/245

[Convective]

Very, very unusual yesterday! Mammatus clouds!! From nowhere this light rain shower developed and provided a spectacular sky! After this it cleared up to lovely blue skies again! Apologies about the quality, taken with my iPod...

 

Mammatus clouds

 

Mammatus Clouds by Joshua_Risker, on Flickr

 

 

After it had passed

 

Stormy Sky by Joshua_Risker, on Flickr

Edited June 2, 2013 by Convective

[Coast]

GFS only throwing up a couple of low risk chances for something for this week:

 

 

But if you were in Europe.....

 

 

 

 

[AWD]

Maybe next week as instability deepens. Long way off but with lower SLP then the chance is always there.

[Coast]

Maybe next week as instability deepens. Long way off but with lower SLP then the chance is always there.

 

I'm not discounting this week completely, but there's nothing to get he juices flowing currently, so maybe take each day as it comes (well the ones from Wednesday onwards) and then see what next week has in store over the weekend?

[A.J]

ok, time for my constructive analysis............

 

 

I WANT A STORM!! ...... 'El Bristolio' will do nicely!!

 

 

 

that is all

[AWD]

I wouldn't disregard this week either, in particular the weekend period. 00Z ECM/UKM/GFS all model a very warm and moist boundary layer air mass not too far from our shores, and would only take relatively minor revisions northward (and ideally westward as well) of the surface low to have that moisture advect over the country. Tantilising close to our first significant convective period. Is a fair way out, especially in convective terms, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Nice to see I'm not the only one that sees the potential for showers and storms over the weekend in the model output.Everyone in the MOD thread seems to not see this and instead sees sun, sun and more sun.France is looking good during the weekend currently.

[NUT]

GFS only throwing up a couple of low risk chances for something for this week:

 

 

But if you were in Europe.....

 

 

 

 

 

Noticing a slightly wee risk for us wednesday up here (more likely nothing will happen and if anything does it will be isolated nothing severe)

[Supacell]

I am in agreement with posters on here that see the potential for something later this week and into the weekend. Obviously subject to revision, but as W09 posted, a slight shift north and we could be on the verge of something special from the continent. Even without this, the threat of isolated storms from midweek onwards.

[NUT]

Seems to be quite a few sporadic showers around today but they don't look too heavy

[VillagePlank]

Possible imports for the South, this weekend?

 

 

(OK clutching at straws, but hey, it seems forever since we had a good thunderstorm!)

Edited June 3, 2013 by Sparkicle

[AWD]

It's possible Sparkicle;

To far out to dwell upon for now though!

Just to add, the GEFS also show an increase in CAPE towards the end of the week;

Edited June 3, 2013 by AWD

[ZONE 51]

 

Interesting developments possible...

More later in the week on this. Enjoy the warm-very warm weather. not that it won't last just saying!

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1370649600

 

 

 

[Coast]

GFS this morning has any thunderstorm possibilities retreating through the week, with just this overview chart giving a  glimmer of hope for some on Friday:

 

 

GFS also has any action at the weekend way down into France and Germany:

 

 

 

Early days and only one model and one run, fingers crossed for some movement North

[VillagePlank]

That region of instability is tantalisingly close to the south coast,

 

 

( Yes, yes: straw clutching at it's best )

Edited June 4, 2013 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

Marginal opportunity for the West Country and Eastern Scotland; North Eastern Scotland being more 'favoured' ,

 

Edited June 4, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Sprites]

May and June thundery setups can be spoilt here by the north sea,

Any storms moving towards east anglia after dark, often become invisable as low cloud moves inland on a N.E. surface flow, its so annoying!!.

(not expecting any storms until july though)