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Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

Paul

By Paul
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Confirm thunderstorm last night in Rochester/Chatham. Started hammering down walking from the station at 11:30ish, so took refuge under a tree....then a really bright flash and peel of thunder made me think twice lol. Then rain really intensified 10mins later with a much louder peel of thunder. Didn't observe anything else once it'd moved through - nice surprise though :yahoo:

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
Posted

Confirm thunderstorm last night in Rochester/Chatham. Started hammering down walking from the station at 11:30ish, so took refuge under a tree....then a really bright flash and peel of thunder made me think twice lol. Then rain really intensified 10mins later with a much louder peel of thunder. Didn't observe anything else once it'd moved through - nice surprise though Posted Image

 

What a difference a couple of miles makes. We had the heavy rain and heard a vague rumble, but nowt else.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Maybe a couple of rumbles of thunder later on tomorrow over far western areas after the main frontal system has passed over leaving some sunny breaks and enough energy to give a few hail showers and thundershowers

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I am a bit disappointed that by this stage in May we have not yet seen a proper thundery outbreak. There has been some warmth, although hardly in any abundance with below average temperatures being the norm over the first two months of the storm chase season. I don't think winds from a northerly quadrant really help. I am not sure I can recall a May being as quiet as this May around these parts for thunderstorms and this coming week doesn't promise much for around here either. 

 

At least we are enjoying the second good bank holiday in a row, which is also something i don't recall around these parts.

 

Hopefully some better opportunities in June....

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Chance for some thunderstorms across Ireland and SW UK tomorrow afternoon looking at GFS this morning, upper trough to the W/NW today disrupts S/SE across western western Europe. In wake of occluded front, which becomes slow-moving across northern and eastern Britain tomorrow. Polar maritime flow across Ireland, Wales and SW England - characterised by steep lapse rates, will lend to convection as sunny spells develop. GFS shows 300-400 j/kg SBCAPE across Ireland and SW UK tomorrow, so scattered t-storms with hail possible.Shear looks rather weak, as has been the case for most of the convective days so far this spring, so severe weather rather unlikely.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

I agree that this year has been an extremely slow start. Take this week for example, charts were suggesting widespread thunderstorms and now it had dissolved away to a couple of thundery shower days and nothing else promising on the horizon.

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NUT Accomplished

NUT

Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
Posted

Our last action was back in Janurary I think (and even then it was a flash and bang quite literaly)! Nothing remotely on the horizon currently so it seems................

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

This afternoons possibilities... 

 

Posted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

there been some Lighting in NI

 

Yep been a fair bit west of Belfast in the past 20 minutes

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johnny1972 Explorer

johnny1972

Posted
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Buxton, Derbyshire 1148ft asl prev County Down, NI
Posted

Yes thunderstorm just west of belfast lasted good 20 mins. Torrential rain, frequent lightning and hail to 1.0 - 1.5 cm in very heavy burst. Hope the rest of the week can produce similar.

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted

Tomorrows forecast

 

Posted Image

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Sferic seen about 2pm to the SE of London, only one so far today...

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

That sferic not seen from Rochester, unfortunately.

 

post-5986-0-57711200-1369755803_thumb.gi

 

Everything apart from LI seems to be in place, so, I guess on a local level it's possible but certainly not holding out any hopes. LI looks to be pointing to a stable atmosphere, convectively speaking, for the SE, for the next few days.

 

Next UK interest looks like Somerset around Thursday lunchtime,

 

post-5986-0-41262700-1369756138_thumb.gipost-5986-0-28678800-1369756145_thumb.gipost-5986-0-33112400-1369756151_thumb.gipost-5986-0-76342300-1369756157_thumb.gi

 

Nothing for anyone else, I feel, for the foreseeable, though. Even Somerset is right on the marginal line!

Edited by Sparkicle
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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted

Yeah, a few localized potent showers in S/E Devon one missed me by a mile or so with hail apparently, but nothing thunder wise. Looked better a couple days ago but typically things were further west with instability lower and/or not quite far enough east.

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Bristol area (Somerset area) still looking reasonable for tomorrow,

 

Posted Imageskew-t.gif

 

Trigger might be a bit awkward, though ...

Tornado risk too? 

post-17320-0-94959100-1369849526_thumb.p

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Raidan Enthusiast

Raidan

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
Posted

I don't think anything will happen here today,dull and overcast no sun for heating and Estofex only have a slight risk which to me means won't happen as has been the case many times,would love to be wrong but I'm probably not.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Would guess that diurnal heating (ie the difference between night and day) rather than direct insolation is the key point, today. If so, timing should be sometime after 2pm and risk recedes rapidly after about 5pm.

 

Slight upgrade to skew-t, for Bristol, this morning,

 

post-5986-0-36951200-1369907539_thumb.gi

Edited by Sparkicle
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Interesting cell over the Birmingham area moving in a south-westerly direction, more showers across the UK especially in central regions look to be pepping up now...

post-17320-0-73929200-1369927702_thumb.p

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Raidan Enthusiast

Raidan

Posted
  • Location: BRISTOL
  • Location: BRISTOL
Posted

Although there are a few posts dotted around the web mentioning Bristol I'm sticking to my theory that nothing will happen here today and probably no where else in the uk either,Looking forward to seeing if we get a decent hot summer and get some thundery breakdowns.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Sferics just to the south of Devon, but heading the wrong direction for our shores. Could squeeze the odd flash and a rumble out of the showers moving across the Midlands as they move across the West Country later this afternoon but nothing more than that from what I can see.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Hopefully all this heat building into next week will provide a stormchaser's paradise scenario later down the line :) 

After such a poor spring and a dreadful 2012, compensation may just be round the corner :p 

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Sferic amongst those showers across the SW Midlands now in Worcestershire. 

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