Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[VillagePlank]

Tomorrow afternoon in Bristol (Somerset, Devon) looks promising!

 

 

Very nice stable (blue skies) environment for lunchtime, heat building nicely all capped of nicely with some CIN,

 

 

Then boom! it all collapses and convection goes mad,

 

 

Trigger likely to be surface heating. Camborne ascent tomorrow lunchtime is certainly one to look out for

 

Edited June 6, 2013 by Sparkicle

[nitro_deluxe]

Just as an aside, French capital looks in firing line this week end...

Pretty hot there too.

Who knows, should things develop accordingly - an import cannot be ruled out completely, that is the nature of the beast when it comes to storm potential.We'll see eh.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Tomorrow afternoon in Bristol (Somerset, Devon) looks promising!

 

cape_13060718_0606.giflftx_13060718_0606.gif

 

Very nice stable (blue skies) environment for lunchtime, heat building nicely all capped of nicely with some CIN,

 

skew-t-cin.gif

 

Then boom! it all collapses and convection goes mad,

 

skew-t.gif

 

Trigger likely to be surface heating. Camborne ascent tomorrow lunchtime is certainly one to look out for

 

Good opportunity for our Bristol and Somerset lads! There have been many times when storms have been unexpected just hope the charts shift it further northwards, we all deserve a storm I think!

Edited June 6, 2013 by interestingweather

[Ben Sainsbury]

The BBC also mentioning the isolated thunderstorm tomorrow, am I the only one that gets over excited?

[dave48]

A quiet start to the convective season this year in the south east.

 

Clutching at straws, GFS is modelling a 'plume' to graze the UK this time next week. ECMWF not in agreement at the moment. Something to watch at least over the weekend.

[Raidan]

I would say no your not IW I to fall for it everytime,I get excited and nothing happens everytime,but I've learnt over the years that our part of the world does poorly with storms especially the SW,I guess all we can do is cross fingers and toes and hope for the best

[Karl83]

The BBC also mentioning the isolated thunderstorm tomorrow, am I the only one that gets over excited?

Who did Points West weather? Did they mention anything?

 

And no mate, like Raidan I am the same. Always falling for it. But one day, it will all be worth falling for!

Edited June 6, 2013 by Karl83

[paul m]

Storms getting going over France now

[Chris K]

Ian F on Points West said a very low probability of an isolated shower in the W country. Also said low chance of isolated thunderstorm potential if temps reached high enough, however will likely be confined to Northern Cornish coast (if anything happens at all). Emphasised 'low probability at this time'

Not saying it won't happen, but at the moment I personally remain unconvinced. Just enjoy the sun until our plume arrives (or not) haha

Edited June 6, 2013 by Chris K

[Ben Sainsbury]

Storms getting going over France now

Ill check points west now but the UK weather did.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Ian Fergusson on about isolated showers or thunderstorms and he expects them to be around the north Cornish coast.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Look at those precipitation rates!

[Raidan]

I hate that word LOW I know its not a definate won't happen but here it might as well be,think I'll start straw clutching with the rest of you.

[Ben Sainsbury]

As if we'd get these storms in the UK!

[VillagePlank]

GFS is modelling a 'plume' to graze the UK this time next week.

 

Here's the fella,

 

 

Miles away yet .... so even I'm not getting excited (although I am watching it run by run   )

Edited June 6, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Supacell]

It is has been a very poor start to the convective season but just to put things into context - last year was my joint best year for storm chasing and my first chase was not until 14th June, and we had very little hot weather (although there was the odd day). I know there is no "pattern" with regards when storms occur, but the storm season tends to get into full swing from the longest day onward.

[Chris K]

I hate that word LOW I know its not a definate won't happen but here it might as well be,think I'll start straw clutching with the rest of you.

Take your pick

 

[Raidan]

Ha ha Chris there's enough there for this year and next lol

[Andy Bown]

Those storms currently affecting France will not survive the Channel crossing except for leaving behind attractive AltCas with a few sharp showers across Southern counties by the morning.

Through the day tomorrow I'd expect Ian's BBC Points West forecast to play out, with the above sharp showers continuing to be scattered across the region through the day and a very low chance of further development later in the day.

If anything does develop it will be very isolated and more likely near the coast or over the moors, maybe just 2 or 3 showers across the entire region.

[Raidan]

I don't know if we're allowed to post stuff from other sites so I didn't but over at ukww there's 2 posts in their convective chat that has me thinking will it won't it? Headache!!!

[VillagePlank]

Estofex are onto tomorrow's SW convective chances,

 

[A.J]

I don't know if we're allowed to post stuff from other sites so I didn't but over at ukww there's 2 posts in their convective chat that has me thinking will it won't it? Headache!!!

just goes to show that only here at NetWeather is where the action's at, accept no pale imitations!

[Raidan]

I enjoyed watching this looks like closest I'm going to get for a while to the real thing,enjoy!

[Raidan]

I'm NW all the way AJ buuuut you got to have a sneeky peek at what others are saying,right?

Edited June 6, 2013 by Raidan

[Keraunic]

Much activity over in N France. Will it come across here I wonder. Get the awful feeling we're going to be storm starved again this year. * sigh*