Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Stormyking]

Probably not as it is so far away it makes FI look imminent!!  

 

Anyway, I think you've had your quota of storms on the Island for the year, just last week

Indeed, Just thought id post it for some Interest

 

And haha I can never get enough of storms just makes me crave them even more  but nah seriosuly its been a great start haha  They most certainly the best storms ive seen since 2008, but I hope everyone does well this year! Im sure you will get your turn soon 

[Karl83]

Indeed, Just thought id post it for some Interest

 

And haha I can never get enough of storms just makes me crave them even more  but nah seriosuly its been a great start haha  They most certainly the best storms ive seen since 2008, but I hope everyone does well this year! Im sure you will get your turn soon 

Its certainly the only interesting thing to look at on the models at the moment... So please please please happen lol!

[Convective]

Wednesday doesn't look too bad to watch any storms over Northern Ireland as they move up and out over the sea. A nice little spot up the mountains somewhere with the camera set up hopefully!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I know its really far out but GFS and ECM are showing this, but please please happen!

 

GFS version:

 

 

ECM Version:

Personally I would prefer the ECM if this was to pull, because of more intence heat and Violent thunderstorms! 

Just thought id post this in here for some Interest, which has probably already been seen by most on here They will obviously change but who knows!

Now seeing that is tickling me pink ! 

Firstly, we would surely touch 30+ degrees in some spots, say in the Midlands somewhere. Theres only one thing that would mean, the more vigorous those storms would be if they came off with all that decent fiery heat! 

Anywhere along the South Coast right up to most areas in the Midlands would see extreme downpours but will also feel Ho Chi Minh City humid!

[dave48]

Loving the ECMWF at 240h at the moment, 850hpa temps of 20 +. We all know what that would mean!

 

Edited June 10, 2013 by dave48

[Nick F]

Loving the ECMWF at 240h at the moment, 850hpa temps of 20 +. We all know what that would mean!

 

 

 

Yes, would make a nice change from this unusually inactive May and early June for storms so far.

 

Nice that both GFS and ECM are hinting at good potential today, though, as always, too far off and will probably be the usual cool northwesterlies by then!

 

12z ECM not out until 8ish, so who knows whether it will show anything decent or not for storm fans.

[Harry]

Sick of this rubbish stale weather. Cannot believe its nearing mid June and my part of the world hasn't broken 23C yet....wtf!!!

[Supacell]

Sick of this rubbish stale weather. Cannot believe its nearing mid June and my part of the world hasn't broken 23C yet....wtf!!!

 

Yes, would make a nice change from this unusually inactive May and early June for storms so far.

 

Nice that both GFS and ECM are hinting at good potential today, though, as always, too far off and will probably be the usual cool northwesterlies by then!

 

12z ECM not out until 8ish, so who knows whether it will show anything decent or not for storm fans.

 

It has been disappointing so far this year with only the very few picking up the rare storms that have occurred. I really hope the second half of June onwards offers more, a hobby of storm chasing without any storms to chase is a little deflating after a while.

 

If next Thursday/Friday came off as being shown it would be something special to kick start the season for me, but I am not getting excited yet.

[dave48]

Now you see it, now you don't! 12Z sends it all over the continent. A graze from the 12 degree uppers on its way.

 

Edited June 10, 2013 by dave48

[Keraunic]

It's no good. This storm starvation is killing me...so...I'm emigrating to Taipei. According to my weather app on my Android its ALWAYS thundering there.

[Nick F]

I think it's thundering more everywhere else but the UK.

 

The more the years go on, the more I think there's been some worrying pattern change, probably a persistent shift in the jet southwards from the UK,  which goes against the more active warm airmass storms in the UK.

 

I know I may be looking through rose-tinted spectacles, but what ever happened to those Plumes with the classic MCSs moving north across the UK in the evenings bringing several hours of thunder and lightning at night, they definitely occurred a lot more regularly in summer than they appear to in recent summers.

[Supacell]

I think it's thundering more everywhere else but the UK.

 

The more the years go on, the more I think there's been some worrying pattern change, probably a persistent shift in the jet southwards from the UK,  which goes against the more active warm airmass storms in the UK.

 

I know I may be looking through rose-tinted spectacles, but what ever happened to those Plumes with the classic MCSs moving north across the UK in the evenings bringing several hours of thunder and lightning at night, they definitely occurred a lot more regularly in summer than they appear to in recent summers.

 

I have often thought this myself. I remember many good storms that lasted several hours in the 80's but in the recent few years the thunderstorms we have seen have been predominantly from the Atlantic type thundery shower. The same change in our climate that is bringing more snow in the winter, and will probably continue to do so, is unfortunately ruining the UK storms. Although now and then we do get the odd treat such as last year on the 28th June, that was a storm to remember.

 

What gets me though is that we tend to miss most of the action by a mere whisker, just the slightest change would see at least the SE get hit by continental imports on a regular basis.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Now you see it, now you don't! 12Z sends it all over the continent. A graze from the 12 degree uppers on its way.

 

Only one answer to that, get ready to drive over to Germany! 

Mind you, it may not even occur at all, just like it has done with the last plume that got erased for this Friday. Best thing to do is just not watch the forecast for the next day and then something will turn up and surprise you, just like what happened last Friday with me down at Portsmouth! Think that may well be the only thing that will cut the mustard all year judging by the rate we are seeing plumes wiped off this year though you never quite know.

[Harry]

I think it's thundering more everywhere else but the UK.The more the years go on, the more I think there's been some worrying pattern change, probably a persistent shift in the jet southwards from the UK, which goes against the more active warm airmass storms in the UK.I know I may be looking through rose-tinted spectacles, but what ever happened to those Plumes with the classic MCSs moving north across the UK in the evenings bringing several hours of thunder and lightning at night, they definitely occurred a lot more regularly in summer than they appear to in recent summers.

Completely agree, there is something afoot without question! Being a 90s child, huge night time thunderstorms lasting through the night were an annual occurrence, sometimes several times a summer. I can only recall one 90s style event in the past 5-6 years and even that was not an all nighter. At the same time though, my Mum and Dad (60s kids) always spoke of significant winter snowfalls, which I never saw until the past few years. It makes one wonder just how cyclical weather patterns are and equally whether or not I have to wait another 5-10 years before we get them back :cray:Anyway, the models are varying significantly at the moment - they may fall nicely on us (*he says with baited breath!!*) Edited June 10, 2013 by Harry

[nitro_deluxe]

They'll come, eventually

Meanwhile the mainland is by the look of things in for a heat spike and usual Summer storm finale..just need a few subtle changes and all could change, not least make any action nearer to our shores.Even the very latest storms that grazed more Southern areas arrived pretty much out of the blue?

[Sprites]

Wednesday 12th june may produce something for Scotland/Ireland , a tripple point with good sheer across these areas, so isolated thunderstorms maybe funnels/tornadoes...

[Adi F]

I think it's thundering more everywhere else but the UK.

 

The more the years go on, the more I think there's been some worrying pattern change, probably a persistent shift in the jet southwards from the UK,  which goes against the more active warm airmass storms in the UK.

 

I know I may be looking through rose-tinted spectacles, but what ever happened to those Plumes with the classic MCSs moving north across the UK in the evenings bringing several hours of thunder and lightning at night, they definitely occurred a lot more regularly in summer than they appear to in recent summers.

I have been saying that for years now.  

[Hathers]

Completely agree, there is something afoot without question! Being a 90s child, huge night time thunderstorms lasting through the night were an annual occurrence, sometimes several times a summer. I can only recall one 90s style event in the past 5-6 years and even that was not an all nighter. At the same time though, my Mum and Dad (60s kids) always spoke of significant winter snowfalls, which I never saw until the past few years. It makes one wonder just how cyclical weather patterns are and equally whether or not I have to wait another 5-10 years before we get them back :cray:Anyway, the models are varying significantly at the moment - they may fall nicely on us (*he says with baited breath!!*)

I was also a 90s child and can remember the all night storms, then going to school in the morning and still hearing them rumbling away in the distance. The problem is I was to young to enjoy them, more scared back then lol It used to happen several times a summer. It doesn't happen anymore like that. Something has changed either its to do with weather patterns or sea temps, climate. I do hope we see these types of storms again in the future.

[Coast]

I know I may be looking through rose-tinted spectacles, but what ever happened to those Plumes with the classic MCSs moving north across the UK in the evenings bringing several hours of thunder and lightning at night, they definitely occurred a lot more regularly in summer than they appear to in recent summers.

 

In fact even the plumes that do crop occasionally are flabby affairs that don't seem to deliver to our shores. Very poor, I blame the MetO!!! :lol: 

[Norfolk Sheep]

If you're really desperate, you could move here -

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catatumbo_lightning

 

[Coast]

If you're really desperate, you could move here -

 

 

Well somewhere in the World had storms yesterday:

 

[Stormyking]

Hi Guys, My friend has put up another Lightning photo from the other day, and said it would be great if I could share it with you all again

[Coast]

Hi Guys, My friend has put up another Lightning photo from the other day, and said it would be great if I could share it with you all again

 

 

Nice capture, especially in daylight - do we know your friend here?

[Adi F]

Great image. Does he use a lightning trigger.

[Stormyking]

Nice capture, especially in daylight - do we know your friend here?

He Is actually on this site, but he rarely comes on because he can't find the the time too, his user name is Jamie R, Hes on my friends list on here

 

And yes he does Adi, uses it all the time when Storms kick off 

Edited June 11, 2013 by Stormyking