Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Bobby]

Showers developing to my East now, will miss out again though no doubt, definitely a poxy storm shield here.

[Chris K]

Afternoon all. I've had a brief look around and although i'm within the highlighted areas by some forecasts, are any thundery showers actually likely to cross into the W Country & Bristol area this afternoon? Or is it likely to stay further S & SW today?

I'm thinking the latter if i read the charts correctly?

[Karl83]

Some CB's towards Wales are huge. Like huge Cauliflowers in the sky.

[Bluebreezer54]

There'll be some vicious activity here soon if I don't get a storm; my laptop will be going through the window

I did actually laugh when I read that, but not in a bad way. I can understand your frustration and the north west does seem to be a particularly storm starved region of the UK.

 

Its not much better down here in the south to be honest, though I have at least heard some rumbles of thunder this year, including several yesterday evening. Chin up fella, and have faith in the knowledgable posters here

[Coast]

There's a nice image of the NW radar when you compare it to some of the expectations earlier today!

 

 

 

Edited May 17, 2013 by Coast

[Karl83]

Damn! Look at her go!

 

[Coast]

Damn! Look at her go!

Storm SW Wales.jpg

Loving it!

[Stuart]

lucky you all down in wales and southwest

[Ben Sainsbury]

lucky you all down in wales and southwest

 

Well, I'm in Bristol and it seems like I have missed yesterdays and today action so far, how much closer can I get!?

[Karl83]

Well, I'm in Bristol and it seems like I have missed yesterdays and today action so far, how much closer can I get!?

I think we will be waiting a while for our next convective outbreak too. Atleast it's going to get warmer eh.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Most cells seem to be dieing out now.

[Supacell]

I went chasing yesterday, positioning myself close to the Welsh borders and chased across Shropshire and Cheshire occasionally crossing into Wales. From the start I was seeing signs of clouds developing. By 10am I had gone past Ashbourne when I took this picture of the early convection.

 

 

By early afternoon I had positioned myself on the Welsh borders, following where I saw the area of highest CAPE and wind convergence zones developing. Clouds by this time were developing further in response to warm sunshine and temperatures of around 12-13c.

 

 

It was around 5pm that the first storms started around where I was (earlier across Lincolnshire). I chased one cell from Ellesmere towards Oswestry but the pulse nature of the storms made getting footage of a storm in progress very difficult, despite slow storm motion. This is the storm as seen from just south of Ellesmere, notice the clearly defined core with rain (and possibly hail) shafts. As I chased this I saw an awesome CG but am yet to check video to see if it showed up.

 

 

 

As this cell moved up into North Wales it fired up once more, but it was too late for me to catch although I did see some distant lightning and hear some thunder from it as it headed off northward.

 

I then located another developing shower between Ellesmere and Whitchurch. This cell had all the signs of a developing thunderstorm and I was sure I could see rotation as it developed in front of me. I was waiting for this cell to drop lightning but it didn't happen.... at least not yet.

 

 

 

This cell did turn thundery, but after it had left my locality. I chased the cell, and saw a few flashes and one IC, but by the time I caught it between Overton and Wrexham it had pulsed out. 

 

My final attempt was to catch a cell that had developed and was pushing between Whitchurch and Wolverhampton to the south of Stoke. I managed to get some good shots of this cell from a distance and indeed it dropped a couple of sferics, not seen by me but detected on NW Extra V6 radar.

 

 

By the time I reached it the sferic activity had died, but it was still producing heavy rain and hail as I punched through its core. All in all a good day for showers and hearing distant thunder/seeing occasional lightning, but the showers did not play ball when trying to film. Still, a good start to the storm chase season and has got me in the mood for more.

Edited May 17, 2013 by Supacell

[Andy Bown]

Excellent account Supacell, thanks for sharing your photos and obs.

[Karl83]

I went chasing yesterday, positioning myself close to the Welsh borders and chased across Shropshire and Cheshire occasionally crossing into Wales. From the start I was seeing signs of clouds developing. By 10am I had gone past Ashbourne when I took this picture of the early convection.

 

Half hour later - 10.30am.JPG

 

By early afternoon I had positioned myself on the Welsh borders, following where I saw the area of highest CAPE and wind convergence zones developing. Clouds by this time were developing further in response to warm sunshine and temperatures of around 12-13c.

 

A4. Half hour later - 12.30pm.JPG

 

It was around 5pm that the first storms started around where I was (earlier across Lincolnshire). I chased one cell from Ellesmere towards Oswestry but the pulse nature of the storms made getting footage of a storm in progress very difficult, despite slow storm motion. This is the storm as seen from just south of Ellesmere, notice the clearly defined core with rain (and possibly hail) shafts. As I chased this I saw an awesome CG but am yet to check video to see if it showed up.

 

Developing storm - 5.15pm.JPG A9. Rain shafts from distant storm - 6.25pm.JPG

 

 

As this cell moved up into North Wales it fired up once more, but it was too late for me to catch although I did see some distant lightning and hear some thunder from it as it headed off northward.

 

I then located another developing shower between Ellesmere and Whitchurch. This cell had all the signs of a developing thunderstorm and I was sure I could see rotation as it developed in front of me. I was waiting for this cell to drop lightning but it didn't happen.... at least not yet.

 

Another developing storm - 7.30pm.JPG  B2. 15 mins later - 7.45pm.JPG

 

This cell did turn thundery, but after it had left my locality. I chased the cell, and saw a few flashes and one IC, but by the time I caught it between Overton and Wrexham it had pulsed out. 

 

My final attempt was to catch a cell that had developed and was pushing between Whitchurch and Wolverhampton to the south of Stoke. I managed to get some good shots of this cell from a distance and indeed it dropped a couple of sferics, not seen by me but detected on NW Extra V6 radar.

 

B4. Distant CB - 8.30pm.JPG

 

By the time I reached it the sferic activity had died, but it was still producing heavy rain and hail as I punched through its core. All in all a good day for showers and hearing distant thunder/seeing occasional lightning, but the showers did not play ball when trying to film. Still, a good start to the storm chase season and has got me in the mood for more.

Great shots thanks for sharing!

[Supacell]

Yep, a good detailed account there. Shame the weather didn't play ball, but I'm sure there'll be much better days in the not too distant future.

 

Thank you weather09. Hopefully this year will provide some good storms, it has been a slow start but I do find the best months are June, July and August. 

 

Some sferics within that band of rain moving in from the east, heading towards the NE of England currently.

[Cloud 10]

Haven't heard any thunder here yet but the morning is young!

 

Some meaty radar returns at the moment as the LP approaches from the East.

 

 

 

 

Satellite....

 

Meteociel - Observations satellite - images satellite infrarouge et visible

Edited May 18, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Coast]

I've got to say, looking at a few sources this morning, that I can't see a great potential today in the information to hand. I think if anything, it's down to those detectors and radar viewing.

 

[Stuart]

there Some Lighting out in the North sea could there move in to the uk

Edited May 18, 2013 by Stuart

[Cloud 10]

there Some Lighting out in the North sea could there move in to the uk

 

 

A decent amount of strikes showing up at the moment although still well offshore.

 

 

 

Been a very wet morning here,must be over an inch of rain.

[andymusic]

Lightning hits house in thunderstormhttp://www.bbc.co.uk...-wales-22577666Milford terminal thunderstorm

Edited May 18, 2013 by andymusic

[Ben Sainsbury]

Any chance of sharp showers or thunderstorms in Southern England tomorrow?

[Karl83]

Any chance of sharp showers or thunderstorms in Southern England tomorrow?

No chance matey.

[Ben Sainsbury]

No chance matey.

When we going to get our day Karl!?

[Karl83]

When we going to get our day Karl!?

 

To be honest with you mate I've been waiting for 'our day' since this

 

(At the time I lived on Ashley Down Road)

 

That was the last decent thunderstorm I have seen here. To be fair it was a pretty good one. Lasted for a very long time. Glad that someone posted a video of it.

Edited May 18, 2013 by Karl83

[Coast]

Any chance of sharp showers or thunderstorms in Southern England tomorrow?

 

I think it's a miss for today and really nothing much in the next few days to a week for the South. There might be an odd rumble or two up North tomorrow:

 

 

Or Wednesday:

 

 

But blink and you'll miss it this week I think.