Upcoming Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - w/c 12th May

[Stuart]

Areas Affected:

SW England and Wales, much of Ireland

 

 

Synopsis:

A broad area of low pressure will be located to the south and east of Britain with a weak surface trough situated through SW Britain and Ireland during the middle part of the day.

 

Discussion:

Scattered showers will develop in response to daytime heating across the slight area. Very little shear is forecast so storms will be of the pulse variety, but the heaviest showers may produce some isolated lightning with CAPE values of around 200j/kg in SW Britain. A pocket of slightly higher CAPE is forecast over Ireland, but also more cloud-cover which could inhibit potential somewhat. Either way, with limited instablity and shear, hail and strong wind gusts are unlikely with just a few sferics being the main result.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/243

[Chris.R]

lovely and sunny here all day as usual, although there were some heavy showers in college in Southport, but not even that here in Crosby. I don't know why I bother sometimes.

[Chris.R]

Been a dry day for Birmingham and other regions in the vicinity. Noticed obs all day have been showing dewpoints hovering around 1-2C (so pretty dry air mass), which may be why things have struggled to develop here. Where storms have occured dewpoints of around 5-6C have been the general values.

I'd agree with that here, but I think The merseyside area just does something to storms when ever they get near. 

[Mapantz]

It's about time i saw a 'storm' I had a one clap of thunder back on boxing day but it's been eight years almost since i had an actual storm. I'm on the eastern extent of the best criteria tomorrow but ELT's are cold for hail and there is some relatively ok CAPE. Fingers crossed!

Edited May 16, 2013 by Mapantz

[SalopWatcher]

Had a cell pass over me about 5-5.30 a few rumbles but no visible lightening... Happy enough to see some convective weather though.. Bring on the summer

Edited May 16, 2013 by SalopWatcher

[LeeKay]

The cell to the SE of Birmingam has just eratically came to life!

[Convective]

Nice line of storms getting going over Manchester. Making progress westwards...

[Carl46Wrexham]

Have heard reports of golf ball sized hail from the storm that passed Oswestry earlier. Can't confirm yet.

[Kain]

Bit black here in Bridgnorth, small cell towards wolverhampton, but no sferics from it as of yet..bugger

[I remember Atlantic 252]

can see the cell to my NE, looks stormy in nottingham, cell developed to my NW

[skyblusam]

Looks like somthing could be kicking off here soon with a bit of luck

[Eye to the sky]

Gone deadly black to my East,not sure if we will get anything now though but the wind has definitely strengthened.Cant complain though,heard my first rumble of the year earlier around 6pm.

[Kain]

Lightning and rumbling in Bridgnorth

[Cheshire Freeze]

Lightning and rumbling in Bridgnorth

 

Can see that Shropshire storm from here

Edited May 16, 2013 by CreweCold

[Hathers]

Thunder and Lightning in Telford. Sky has gone black.

[Supacell]

Bit black here in Bridgnorth, small cell towards wolverhampton, but no sferics from it as of yet..bugger

 

Just drove through that and didn't see any lightning but there is hail in it. It could well develop as storms are still popping up and dying all over this area (Shropshire).

[Eye to the sky]

Heavy rain and really gusty winds here under a very threatening sky.No sign of any Thunder or Lightning as yet.

[Shane Wheeldon]

Heard 2 rumbles of thunder from that cell to the SW its just skirted us ( as normal!)

[matt_in_dudley]

Gone dark to my West

[conor123]

Dry and nothingness in Telford but quite the beast of a cell to the south and south west which gave a flash of lightning and rumble of thunder not to long ago.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Still the odd storm occuring well into the evening- let that be a lesson to those who insist on calling it a day during late morning/early afternoon on days such as today.

Still nowt here

[Carl46Wrexham]

Got a good view of the cell over Shropshire from here...clear skies overhead now...damn chilly as well.

Edited May 16, 2013 by Carl46Wrexham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

can see shropshire cell, and still one to my NE, and NW but no flashes seen

[DAVID SNOW]

Still the odd storm occuring well into the evening- let that be a lesson to those who insist on calling it a day during late morning/early afternoon on days such as today.

True for some, and your convection info is very good,  but do you have to be so bloody condescending all the time?

[Cloudwatcher]

Got a good view of the cell over Shropshire from here...clear skies overhead now...damn chilly as well.

 

 

Another snooze-fest here by the looks of it.    Early days I guess.