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Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Couldn't believe what I saw on the 6z, surely a classic sonic boom of a plume at last? 

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

I'll bank the GFS 06z please, looks stormy Sunday-Tuesday next week as things break down from the SW. Yummy.

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Posted Image  Posted Image

 

Unfortunately.. It's not a breakdown by the looks of things just a "blip" next mid week.. I may be wrong..In fact the complete opposite and I think tonight's charts will show it... As by the following Monday (of course could change) looks set to re build our high pressure Posted Image

Posted Image

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Azores Hi Contributor

Azores Hi

Posted
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Ashford, Kent
Posted

Nothing breaking through the cap here on the m3 yet, lunch finished, time to get on!

Very warm out, peak heat yet to come, it could happen for a few lucky souls but right now though its solidly capped. I can actually see these small cu's hitting the ceiling and fizzling into stratus.

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

Unfortunately.. It's not a breakdown by the looks of things just a "blip" next mid week.. I may be wrong..In fact the complete opposite and I think tonight's charts will show it... As by the following Monday (of course could change) looks set to re build our high pressure Posted Image

Posted Image

 

That chart is showing the breakdown producing heavy thundery rain and cooler temperatures. The high pressure doesn't build as by Wednesday-Thursday the low deepens across the UK bringing more rain

 

Wednesday: Posted Image

Thursday: Posted Image

Hopefully some thunder in that too.

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted

It would be nice to see some classic thunderstorms next week, perhaps looking at the current charts , southern and western parts look favoured to see something

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

GFS wanting to introduce a potetnially convective spell from Monday in the SE, London typically:

 

Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

post-6667-0-58234000-1374064835_thumb.gi post-6667-0-29375500-1374064837_thumb.gi 

 

post-6667-0-94870800-1374064838_thumb.gi post-6667-0-52960900-1374064840_thumb.gi

 

post-6667-0-08456000-1374064842_thumb.gi post-6667-0-64969100-1374064843_thumb.gi

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Buzzard Enthusiast

Buzzard

Posted
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Continental. Dry air, storms and snow.
  • Location: Leighton Buzzard (100m ASL)
Posted

Yep had a look at that earlier - just where the BBC said it would be.

 

I presume they look for convergence zones (not being a weather techie etc..)

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted

ECM shows some showers breaking out across southern-central areas later today, 6pm:

 

 

Then tomorrow showers breaking out across Wales/SW England tomorrow afternoon, 4pm:

 

Could be thundery if you catch one.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Yes that and many other factors. some are a give away and are readily at our disposal from current surface obs as well.

 

Take a look on XCWeather and you will see converging winds in that area, these would probably be sea breeze convergence zones making there way further inland, there is also a tongue of low level moisture if you look at the Dewpoints, there are a narrow strip of 63f Dewpoints from Boscombe Down in Central Southern England all the way up through Cranfield (South Midlands) and onto Wylton (Cambs/Lincs Border) Either side of this the low level moisture falls away to mid 55f dewpoints.

 

Subtle Signs but ones that anyone looking for a Storm should be looking at on CZ Type Days.

 

Paul S

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Herstmonceux Skew T should have me jumping around the room:

 

Posted Image

 

Maybe it's just too hot?

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Herstmonceux Skew T should have me jumping around the room:

 

Posted Image

 

Maybe it's just too hot?

 

K-Index suggests absolutely no convection Posted Image

Edited by Sparkicle
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted

 

Fantastic to watch! Almost hypnotic! I never realised jsut how many storms were there at this time of year around the equator!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

K-Index suggests absolutely no convection Posted Image

 

TT isn't special on inspection either :(

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

This was taken on Saturday 13th

This was taken on Saturday 13th

Welcome to netweather, Armageddon...Can you pop your location into your profile, please? 'Here' is none too specific...Posted Image Posted Image 

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Fantastic to watch! Almost hypnotic! I never realised jsut how many storms were there at this time of year around the equator!

 

Areas near the Equator have thunderstorms on an almost daily basis because of their tropical climates.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Few convective clouds around the London area at the moment.

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