Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

[storm1080]

A bit of talk on the models discussion about this low that might gravitate towards northern spain end of next week...I am escaping to La Rochelle next Thursday who knows what I am in for..might miss the, dare I say it, breakdown

[Nick F]

The MetO forecast also mentions chance of an isolated t-storm across NE Aberdeenshire this afternoon.

 

Seems to be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm across SE England/E Anglia tomorrow afternoon, temps likely to reach 31-32C in the London area, which likely to cause a thermal low over the SE - which will initiate sea breeze convergence and uplift, though IMHO I think any convection may struggle given rather warm and dry profiles in the troposphere, weak lapse rates and only shallow moisture at the surface looking at current soundings and forecast skew-ts. 

 

Be nice to have some relief from this heat though, but I think any storms over coming days will be rather isolated.

Edited July 16, 2013 by Nick F

[Coast]

Seems to be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm across SE England/E Anglia tomorrow afternoon, temps likely to reach 31-32C in the London area, which likely to cause a thermal low over the SE - which will initiate sea breeze convergence and uplift, though IMHO I think any convection may struggle given rather warm and dry profiles in the troposphere, weak lapse rates and only shallow moisture at the surface looking at current soundings and forecast skew-ts. 

 

Not according to Paul Sherman, we have to wait until August for anything! 

[Chris K]

With a relaxation in pressure;

image.jpg

and opportunities for some high CAPE values;

image.jpg

I wonder if we can finally take advantage of the heat & humidity in week 2 and overcome the cap, letting rip some decent explosions!

ECM is also interesting in this respect!

If all this happens whilst i'm going on a trip through Europe I'm going to cry. I get back on the 3rd August...any explosions needs to wait until then!!!

Unless of course Germany/Austria/Czech Republic or Poland join in any fun over the next 2 weeks

Edited July 16, 2013 by Chris K

[Nick F]

Not according to Paul Sherman, we have to wait until August for anything! 

 

He'll probably be right!

[Coast]

There is a bit of CAPE around tomorrow in SE and EA:

 

 

 

Convergence a bit later in the afternoon around coastal areas?

 

 

Not a lot of it though:

 

 

GFS going with a bit of convective precipitation.....

 

 

 

I'll have to wait and see what brews on the radar and detectors through the late morning and afternoon.

He'll probably be right!

 

Damn his hidden superpowers 

 

[Sprites]

If all this happens whilst i'm going on a trip through Europe I'm going to cry. Unless of course Germany/Austria/Czech Republic or Poland join in any fun over the next 2 weeks

Those countries get sever storms more often than the U.K. so don't worry. .

[JRMcLeod]

Nick Miller on the BBC Radio 4 weather this morning mentioned a possibility of a thunderstorm in Aberdeenshire today?

 

Can't really see it myself, but he has more knowledge and resources than us!

 

 

Nothing from ESTOFEX or UKASF so maybe something local forcing things?

 

CAPE is marginal:

 

 

and not in Scotland:

 

 

Lots of convergence though:

 

 

 

 

Lapse rates are slightly up on the NE coast:

 

 

One to keep half an eye on, but don't get too excited yet!

 

I would have to say that there is a decidedly different feel about the weather today here in Aberdeenshire.  It was raining in the early hours this morning and the humidity has increased a lot since yesterday.  On the drive to work at 0830 it was 20oC and my minimum last night was 17oC (according to my garden station).  I think today is meant to hit 25oC here.  The clouds are quite bubbly, looks like there is a chance.  Its one of those days where it just "feels and looks" like there could be a storm later.  I know that sounds silly but thats how it feels.

 

Will keep my fingers crossed!

[Lynxus]

Wow, with 35c being forecast for next week in france .. Surely this has to have a fun breakdown in the end!

We could even end up with mid 30's come the end of next week.

[A.J]

I have noticed a little bit of elevated convection over parts of Wilts & Oxon on my way home this afternoon, some very patchy Ac with virga...........I know, not exactly raging thunderstorms, but I've used the word 'convection' so it is on topic

[Coast]

but I've used the word 'convection' so it is on topic

 

:lol: and you got Virga into the thread too! 

[A.J]

and you got Virga into the thread too! 

so I did!.....haven't got a clue what it means, I heard it once and thought I'd use it in conversation

[Coast]

so I did!.....haven't got a clue what it means, I heard it once and thought I'd use it in conversation

 

You should be very careful about doing that here!! :lol: 

[Cheshire Freeze]

so I did!.....haven't got a clue what it means, I heard it once and thought I'd use it in conversation

 

You know the song: 'like a virga, touch for the very first time'

[Dan the Man]

Just had a look at TWC app - forecast for my area. Reporting back chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon?

[Carl46Wrexham]

You know the song: 'like a virga, touch for the very first time'

 

Think you better get your coat!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Think you better get your coat!

 

This heat and a perpetual lack of storm activity in the vicinity has quite obviously addled my brain!

[Methuselah]

Aren't virga the wee blue ones?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Aren't virga the wee blue ones?

 

It's hard to tell

[A.J]

You know the song: 'like a virga, touch for the very first time'

when asked on the chances of a thunderstorm in Crewe, rather than answer, I'll just suggest that he checks himself directly into the....

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

when asked on the chances of a thunderstorm in Crewe, rather than answer, I'll just suggest that he checks himself directly into the....

 

index.jpg

 

People may laugh but the only forecast guaranteed to come off a month in advance is that there will be no thunderstorms in Crewe.

 

When this heat breaks down, the change here will be signified by a couple of cumulus clouds drifting over and a change in wind direction. Those cumulus clouds will then become cumulonimbus almost instantly on approach of the Derbyshire border. They'll be full on supercells upon hitting Lincolnshire.

Edited July 16, 2013 by CreweCold

[Karl83]

If all this happens whilst i'm going on a trip through Europe I'm going to cry. I get back on the 3rd August...any explosions needs to wait until then!!!

Unless of course Germany/Austria/Czech Republic or Poland join in any fun over the next 2 weeks

I'm with you there Chris. When I went away Canoeing in Sweden last August, what happened here? There was a thunderstorm. So, next Thursday I am off to Snowdonia for 4 days of Mountain Biking. What do we think is going to happen down here I wonder. Lol.

[Supacell]

People may laugh but the only forecast guaranteed to come off a month in advance is that there will be no thunderstorms in Crewe.

 

When this heat breaks down, the change here will be signified by a couple of cumulus clouds drifting over and a change in wind direction. Those cumulus clouds will then become cumulonimbus almost instantly on approach of the Derbyshire border. They'll be full on supercells upon hitting Lincolnshire.

 

I would be quite happy with that 

[poseidon]

Some faint hope for tomorrow...

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/254

 

MO have also switched from sun to 40% precip risk in the afternoon for my area.

[IanR]

People may laugh but the only forecast guaranteed to come off a month in advance is that there will be no thunderstorms in Crewe.

 

When this heat breaks down, the change here will be signified by a couple of cumulus clouds drifting over and a change in wind direction. Those cumulus clouds will then become cumulonimbus almost instantly on approach of the Derbyshire border. They'll be full on supercells upon hitting Lincolnshire.

Wont even be cumulus, more like a layer of light gray stratus rolling in from the Irish sea, with the added interest of some patchy light rain