Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 21st June 2013 onwards

[MrNooo]

[gottolovethisweather]

 

Can see a repeat of the skies as shown above here in Newbury. The Air Temperature peaked at 29.7c just over ten minutes ago and now it's fallen to 29.0c. A half decent dewpoint too, 18.8c. Davis says increasing clouds with little temperature change, precipitation possible within 24 to 48 hours. I'd like a storm within the next few hours, thank you.

Edited July 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Ben Sainsbury]

[Luke Best]

munch_2013_07_14_152615.pngmunch_2013_07_14_152730.png

Where are you based?  (you can add your location to your avatar)

[Panayiotis]

Very similar clouds to the E of Cardiff, they look spectacular but unfortunately they havent produced anything

[Ben Sainsbury]

Where are you based? (you can add your location to your avatar)

[Ben Sainsbury]

weather097 was me forgot my password as i was on my phone

[Chris K]

My storm forecast - 100% chance of storms across the UK from Thurs 18th July - Saturday 3rd August as I'm in Poland and all the action will arrive whilst I'm away

[Coast]

Tentative signs of an isolated storm over London on Wednesday from GFS:

 

 

Don't blink though...

Edited July 15, 2013 by Coast

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Tentative signs of an isolate storm over London on Wednesday from GFS:

 

66_20.gif

 

Don't blink though...

grasping at straws.....

 

Never mind, roll on August :-)

[Coast]

grasping at straws.....

 

Really? Well at least there are some big fat juicy CAPE filled NMM straws....

 

 

 

 

[Stuart]

well look like there no juicy CAPE here

[poseidon]

Glad to see some had storms yesterday! GFS Free atmosphere for London shows Wednesday right through to Friday with a slight risk:

 

 

What a surprise, storm risk for Essex has now had a slight decrease from 72% to 0%!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Really? Well at least there are some big fat juicy CAPE filled NMM straws....

 

MLCAPE 170713 15z.png MLCIN 170713 15z.png

 

TT 170713 15z.png

It's that blasted "Lifted Index" that's the problem, all the clouds I saw over the weekend had a lovely flat tops, very few had any real height to them

 

Sorry, talking mainly about the weekend past, the LI looks OK on those charts

Edited July 15, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Coast]

What a surprise, storm risk for Essex has now had a slight decrease from 72% to 0%!

 

It looks to be shifting West a little, maybe jump in the car go look-see on Wednesday?!

It's that blasted "Lifted Index" that's the problem, all the clouds I saw over the weekend had a lovely flat tops, very few had any real height to them

 

Well over London they are forecasting -5 and in the surrounding areas it doesn't get higher than -1, so still some hope.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lifted_index

Edited July 15, 2013 by Coast

[VillagePlank]

It's that blasted "Lifted Index" that's the problem, all the clouds I saw over the weekend had a lovely flat tops, very few had any real height to them

 

Sorry, talking mainly about the weekend past, the LI looks OK on those charts

 

I would have said that was CIN, really. LI and CAPE were pretty good in many parts, but CIN kept a lid on things where either orographic lift or convergence weren't present or strong enough to push through.

[gottolovethisweather]

As Sparkicle states above. If you're wondering where the storms have gone, blame the PSB and the CIN.   

 

http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7I5UaB7mx4

[Coast]

I would have said that was CIN, really. LI and CAPE were pretty good in many parts, but CIN kept a lid on things where either orographic lift or convergence weren't present or strong enough to push through.

 

No CIN of note to stop any play on Wednesday according to NMM and GFS  

[Coast]

 

Charlie Powell, a Met Office forecaster, said Greater London could expect to see temperatures of around 86F to 88F (30C to 31C) this coming week. He said it was “not out of the question†that the UK could exceed Saturday’s temperature, but added that Britain could be on course to beat 2006’s 16 unbroken days of hot weather. He added: “I think we will see high temperatures lasting until the last week of July, early few days of August, but they will be increasingly confined to the south of the UK.

 

“It will become a bit more changeable towards the start of next month. It doesn’t mean we will have a washout, just something which is more normal for this time of year.†He said that any thunder showers towards the middle of next week “will be few and far betweenâ€, and would be around the middle of the country, particularly near the Pennines.

 

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10179107/UK-weather-the-heat-goes-on.-It-could-be-the-longest-hot-spell-in-a-decade.html

 

[Paul Sherman]

I landed back yesterday........Nuff Said

 

Sorry Guys  

 

Storm season will return 20th August when I next leave the country

 

So nearly 3 weeks on and all looking on target so far, cant really see anything to change the above prediction in the short to mid term

 

Enjoy Guys..................Only 5 weeks to wait now

[Stuart]

I see there a of isolated thunderstorms in northeast Scotland for tue I not hodeing out for much but nerver khow

 

 

 

 

 

[Coast]

So nearly 3 weeks on and all looking on target so far, cant really see anything to change the above prediction in the short to mid term

 

Enjoy Guys..................Only 5 weeks to wait now

 

I'l wee myself with laughter if it kicks off over you on Wednesday!!  

[Robbie Garrett]

Waiting for this!! That's one thing I miss about the late 90's, a classic French Import overnight MCS!!

 

COME OOOON!!

 

Edited July 15, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[AWD]

With a relaxation in pressure;

and opportunities for some high CAPE values;

I wonder if we can finally take advantage of the heat & humidity in week 2 and overcome the cap, letting rip some decent explosions!

ECM is also interesting in this respect!

[Coast]

Nick Miller on the BBC Radio 4 weather this morning mentioned a possibility of a thunderstorm in Aberdeenshire today?

 

Can't really see it myself, but he has more knowledge and resources than us!

 

 

Nothing from ESTOFEX or UKASF so maybe something local forcing things?

 

CAPE is marginal:

 

 

and not in Scotland:

 

 

Lots of convergence though:

 

 

 

 

Lapse rates are slightly up on the NE coast:

 

 

One to keep half an eye on, but don't get too excited yet!

Edited July 16, 2013 by Coast