Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[SizzlingHeat]

Ecm On way now. Lets see what happens

[k19]

 

Ensembles suggest GFS operational is probably, in fact, an outlier following mid next week in terms of 850's which are generally a good indicator of surface temps.

 

Saying that, don't read too much in to surface temps predicted even for this weekend. Although high pressure will now almost certainly dominate, the temperatures can vary wildly depending on exact positioning of the highi.e. warm upper air getting pulled from the continent...the pressure gradient that will allow this to reach further north.

 

If ECM had a max temperature chart for 2m temps I'm sure there would be an interesting contrast

Edited July 2, 2013 by kev19

[Milhouse]

This chart says it all really. Summer set to arrive for all parts.

 

[Downpour]

Slight exaggeration maybe I think it is highly likely that eastern parts south of, say, the Humber will be that bit cooler with a light easterly breeze (and personally I am not complaining about that, as pleasantly warm is perfect for me) but I think that it is not worth taking much notice of these GFS temperature charts at this distance as they fluctuate so much and need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

The UKMO this evening suggests increasingly very warm/hot weather anyway countrywide from later this weekend and into next week, although perhaps again the very highest temperatures in western and central parts of the UK. The High maybe fractionally further south than GFS, although there is little in it

Indeed Tamara. 25c and 27c in direct sunlight makes almost no difference at this time of year as the heat of the sun itself effectively overrides that small difference. There may be a more interesting differential when we examine night temps - presumably they may be quite oppressive in west-central parts away from the freshening breeze?

[Milhouse]

Identical from the ECM. Just need a small area of 1035mb to appear over Yorkshire.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Identical from the ECM. Just need a small area of 1035mb to appear over Yorkshire.

 

 

Not on the next frame, ECM should be binned as it doesn't match your Avatar 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

Not on the next frame, ECM should be binned as it doesn't match your Avatar 

 

Anyway if it were to be 1035mb it would likely be over Northumberland which would not do

[SizzlingHeat]

T144 ECM best summer chart I have seen since July 2006. Absolutely phenomenal. 30-33c I would favour in the south with that chart and an amber heat alert from meto for some....

[Captain Shortwave]

In seriousness, excellent charts from the ECM, 30 degrees should be possible, wind direction is almost irrelevant here with the high slap bang over us, little breeze inland and coastal areas will have sea breezes. Frankly everyone wins from summer lovers to people in the North west to people who don't like extreme heat (above 35 degrees etc)

[SizzlingHeat]

Cant see the heights leaking away SO quickly after 144. That isnt what i expected. Dissapointed there

[Tony27]

Temperatures will get up to 28C in the SE and 24C in the North on Sunday, GFS is undercooking:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23153065

GFS overcooks temps now not undercooks them, last night the GFS said 20c for me today, it ended up 16c cloudy and it felt horrible in the wind, the charts can look as red as they like, but if we get an easterly it won;t be hot, maybe 23c at best in the east and cooler on the coasts, west looks best, of course 23c  without the wind is very nice but with a nagging wind it will be annoying just like the easterly we had in early june

 

weekend looks good though,  ECM coming out now, shock horror, heights building up north and we end up with a northerly by midweek next week, hopefully it's an outliner but people that think a high will sit over us for like 10 days are kidding themselves

[ANYWEATHER]

Cant see the heights leaking away SO quickly after 144. That isnt what i expected. Dissapointed there

Looking forward to the warm sunny weather for a few days, gives me chance to catch-up in the garden etc! But with high pressure building so strongly there is only one thing...... a downgrade sooner or later! I don't like hot conditions though, so warm is good for me ,hot is not!!     

Edited July 2, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

ECM is now showing the high pulling west and high pressure building up north

 

 

Cooler air filtering down from the north on Thursday

 

 

Could this be the sign of the last minute downgrades starting to appear? remember GFS did show the high pulling west on the past 2 06z runs

Edited July 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

In seriousness, excellent charts from the ECM, 30 degrees should be possible, wind direction is almost irrelevant here with the high slap bang over us, little breeze inland and coastal areas will have sea breezes. Frankly everyone wins from summer lovers to people in the North west to people who don't like extreme heat (above 35 degrees etc)

the icobars don't look tight over england on the charts, but that can fool people as the isobars didn't look tight when we had that easterly in early june and it was still pretty breezy here, with warmer uppers though it won't be chilly like last time but it might not be 30c either

 

ECM ends with the high building back over us but with a cool flow

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

In seriousness, excellent charts from the ECM, 30 degrees should be possible, wind direction is almost irrelevant here with the high slap bang over us, little breeze inland and coastal areas will have sea breezes. Frankly everyone wins from summer lovers to people in the North west to people who don't like extreme heat (above 35 degrees etc)

yep CS everybody wins to b honest i like having a sea breeze

[Summer Sun]

Cooler air sweeps across the country at t240

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Cooler air sweeps across the country at t240

 

 

But with warmer air coming back over the top of ths high. Anyway, one ECM op run doesnt equal a trend.

[SizzlingHeat]

Cant see that happening after 144hours. Maybe the model overheated and had a breakdown. I guarantee that it will not look like that come the 00z

[J10]

Just like the ones we used to know?

 

Didn't know it was Christmas time.

 

Decent ECM keeps the theme going, I know some are reflecting on truning slightly cooler, but many runs and many variations before then.

 

As others have Sunday's chart looks the best since 2006 for a Mid Summer High.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Jackone

[Cloud 10]

Significant height rises over the Arctic on tonight's ECM,which seems to leech away our high pressure rather more quickly than most will want,with even Snowking's scandi trough making an appearance later in the run.

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Frosty.]

I think it's best to focus on what the models are showing up to T+144 / T+168 hours, it's going to hot up and settle down, the ukmo 12z and ecm 12z look great at day 6 and 7 respectively, the ecm tonight beyond T+168 is just one of many possible outcomes so no need to worry, the heatwave could easily last all next week and beyond, remember how stellar the ecm 00z ens mean was out to T+240, another very good 12z mean is again likely IMO.

 

The Gem & Navgem 12z are also looking excellent tonight at T+144.

[A.J]

the breakdown to cooler weather is next wednesday which is FI, but of course we must ignore it as its not showing a lovely southerly plume 

Come on now, this is getting rather repetitive! FI  is called FI for a reason, the probabilty of verification takes an incremental nosedive, nothing to do with 'ignoring it as it's not showing a lovely southerly plume' as I'm sure you already know!

[Evening thunder]

the breakdown to cooler weather is next wednesday which is FI, but of course we must ignore it as its not showing a lovely southerly plume 

 

It seems to be getting more attention than the GFS, or the ECM's warmth/heat does before the cooler northerly flow..

[Methuselah]

A gentle reminder to folks about moaning and ramping...I've moved a couple of posts here: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/page-25#entry2727964

 

So, please leave this thread for model discussion? 

[Tony27]

It seems to be getting more attention than the GFS, or the ECM's warmth/heat does before the cooler northerly flow..

because the ECM is the number one model apparently, if the GFS was showing it people wouldn't be as worried as it come out 4 times a day and will likely show more options in FI, the ECM mean won't look as bad as the op we already know that, if the mean is showing a strong high over us at T168 i will relax a bit, but the op can sometimes lead the way, never assume we are locked into a long hot summery spell, this is the uk lets just take it one day at a time