Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[cheese]

I can't understand why people judge a run by a couple of degrees on a notoriously poor models temperature charts. Seriously, there isn't much difference between 25oc and 27oc, so I'm not sure why people moan about it. Sun is sun, warm weather is warm weather - enjoy it.

There's a big, noticeable difference between 26C and 22C, however, the temperature I am now expected to see on Sunday. It's just one run, but then I am a naturally pessimistic person and never like to get my hopes up, and prefer to use reverse psychology in the hopes that I will be proven wrong!

 

I just want a hot spell, too - a warm, settled spell is fine, but from a weather enthusiasts point of view, a rather average 22C is extremely unremarkable and pretty boring. I am hoping for the hottest spell since July 2006, but if this up and coming spell of weather does only provide 25C at the very best, then it will be bested by other hot spells of recent summers, notably 2009.

Edited July 2, 2013 by cheese

[SizzlingHeat]

An easterly flow will always give the highest temps in the south towards Hampshire/dorset as often is the case poole/bournemouth can achieve brilliant temps in this outcome as the flow is east preventing sea breezes. The best coastal region for heat and sunshine will defo be the SW coast where i would guess somewhere would reach 30 degrees

Luckily i live 3 miles from a stunning 7 mile stretch of golden sands so cant complain lol

[Backtrack]

At this range, you'd be incredibly foolish to take the GFS temperature predictions as a gospel. Even on the day, local variations aren't taken into account by the models. In my eyes, not much has changed, the high-twenties was and still is looking very likely for the bulk of England and Wales during the impending very warm/hot spell. I'd also suspect that's it's somewhat underplaying the temperatures in the south east given how warm the sun is at this time of year, being just after the solstice, the days are very long. The thermal lag effect will also come into play as the month goes on, so any sustainable warmer atmospheric profiles are likely to become more noticeable later on in the month.

 

Given winds will be as light as this chart illustrates:

 

I wouldn't expect those temperatures in the SE to be totally true, I'd fancy adding an extra 2-3C to the values shown below.

 

 

As for the rest of us, I'd certainly go against the GFS, when looking at the 850's one would gather that temperatures may being undervalued somewhat when taking into account the sunshine strength and longevity throughout the day.

 

Generally speaking, the orientation of the high on the 12z has factored in a westerly breeze, so temperatures in the NW are likely to be cooler too. 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Backtrack

[J10]

No harm in that

 

Apart from blood pressure.

 

Some good charts today, and the theme for this weekend and beyond, detail will change closer to the time.

 

Hopefully over the weekend and beyond everyone can join in the fun and have some very warm+ and sunny weather. Plenty of time for thunderstorms later.

[Summer Sun]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

 

 

Next wednesday looks to be a groovy day

[Milhouse]

The UKMO is a case of spot the difference for Sunday and Monday with a massive high right over the UK. Most areas would be very warm with little in the way of sea breezes due to the highs position. The ECM mean for early next week also showed the high positioned over the UK so its only the GFS 12z at the moment that shifts it further north. Nevertheless Saturday is looking a cracking day with widespread mid 20s.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

GFS is certainly downgrading temps for early next week across the UK

 

12z

 

 

06z

 

 

The east coast and the SE still look the cold spots in the UK

The end of summer is nigh

[Milhouse]

What matters is the mean output, not the operational. And so far on Meteociel the 12z mean is looking almost identical to the 6z mean. Light onshore breeze for the coast south of the Newcastle but nothing much.

 

Edited July 2, 2013 by Milhouse

[Frosty.]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

 

 

Ireland would be sizzling in that red blob

[rmc1987]

GFS is certainly downgrading temps for early next week across the UK

12z

06z

The east coast and the SE still look the cold spots in the UK

Couldn't be anymore unsurprised by that if I tried. The GFS usually does, of at least lately, downgrades temperatures as the time gets nearer.

[Buzzit]

Since this thread is akin to what it is like during winter with a prospective snow fest on the way.. I modify the following sage advice "Wait for the high pressure to build and then the heat will come"

[Milhouse]

Couldn't be anymore unsurprised by that if I tried. The GFS usually does, of at least lately, downgrades temperatures as the time gets nearer.

 

Temperatures always fluctuate from run to run though. If the 18z were to show something more like the 12z mean then i imagine it would be showing higher temperatures.

[rmc1987]

Temperatures always fluctuate from run to run though. If the 18z were to show something more like the 12z mean then i imagine it would be showing higher temperatures.

Why does it change so much though?

[The Northern Ramper]

Since this thread is akin to what it is like during winter with a prospective snow fest on the way.. I modify the following sage advice "Wait for the high pressure to build and then the heat will come"

Brilliant

Since this thread is akin to what it is like during winter with a prospective snow fest on the way.. I modify the following sage advice "Wait for the high pressure to build and then the heat will come"

AlsoTemperatures are difficult to predict at this range, best to wait until the day and nowcast.

[snowking]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

 

 

NOAA engineers new solution to improve GFS's performance - give it some acid

 

Just a quick one RE: FI developments, the eventual Sceuro trough dropping through is the favoured outcome given MJO expectations (likely move towards phase 5 eventually) and my personal expectations from the summer forecast...but as Tamara pointed out earlier, it does seem to be a case of the models being a little progressive in bringing this feature through, just as they have been in FI in recent weeks with other such features (including, initially, the upcoming settled spell).

 

We look pretty safe for much of the working week next week, and I would, at this juncture, suggest into the following weekend too. Beyond that? Well the LRF signal for this spell (initially looked to be from 10th-20th, so a little earlier than expected) was around 10 days. Realistically we are looking at this spell taking shape over all of the UK around the 6th, so expectation would be for the conditions to continue through until the 16th, give or take a day or two (in reality, it may end up being the 18th before we see any significant change) - MJO progression through the latter part of phase 2 and into 3 lasts around 10 days too.

 

A few mentions of storm activity potentially too - I would urge caution with this. We saw during the mini-plume type development back in June that as the energy progressed North out of France, the cooler sea temperatures rather downgraded the energy by the time it made landfall over the UK, so I would take projected CAPE and LI at present with a pinch of salt

 

SK

[Cloudwatcher]

Just watch these charts get more and more downgraded as the week goes on...Horrible day here today and I just sceptical about how next week is going to pan out. Think there might be more than a few disappointed people on here next week

[Methuselah]

Just watch these charts get more and more downgraded as the week goes on...Horrible day here today and I just sceptical about how next week is going to pan out. Think there might be more than a few disappointed people on here next week

Shut up! 

[Evening thunder]

The uppers are not as good on this run, 12C isotherm is a couple of hundred miles further south. I assume an over reaction in the surface temperature could be possible here.

 

Yeah it does appear that way, but then the 06Z had upgraded the uppers from the 00z while downgrading surface temps, so the uppers on the 00z were probably similar but with surface temps a few degrees higher if I remember right. I have seen it many times where the GFS has underestimated temps by a few degrees with easterly surface flows in the south/SW and other areas (although the east coast will be cooler). However as an IMBY point for this area and the south coast of England a surface flow from the E or NE strong enough to prevent a sea breeze is very good if you want the highest air temps.

 

Looking through the Netweather wind charts and comparing the 12z to 06z the 06z had almost as much of a surface E/NE flow, I think it is just that the GFS has a tendency to under-do maxima by a couple degrees where it progs a average wind strength of anything around or above F2-3. Anyway there is probably not much point focusing on run-run GFS temp variations at this range. I hope the ECM's slightly higher 850hpa's (about 15C in the south) are closer to the mark. 

 

 

A few mentions of storm activity potentially too - I would urge caution with this. We saw during the mini-plume type development back in June that as the energy progressed North out of France, the cooler sea temperatures rather downgraded the energy by the time it made landfall over the UK, so I would take projected CAPE and LI at present with a pinch of salt

 

SK

 

Many say that but personally I think it was more that the plume it's self was just a bit too far E/SE, many other 'successful' events have had the synoptics a bit further west, this time the main storm forming and sustaining zone with the higher uppers and energy was over the near continent and France instead. However yes I agree that there is not likely to be much thundery activity, though any CAPE/LI shown is home grown but think the GFS tends to over do CAPE and showers in these kinds of scenarios. 

 

 

One more comment, I will make the prediction that I reckon there won't be one day in this spell where someone doesn't make a moan type comment on here (even excluding those that dislike heat) and perhaps there won't be during the whole summer. Meanwhile we will be progressing through a week+ of very warm/hot summer weather in many areas.

 

Not sure how this post got quite long like this, oh well.

Edited July 2, 2013 by Stormmad26

[joggs]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

Thats surely what charts looked like in the 60s lol

[Methuselah]

Thats surely what charts looked like in the 60s lol

 

Just like the ones we used to know?

[Frosty.]

Next wednesday looks to be a groovy day

It will now

[Cloud 10]

Thats surely what charts looked like in the 60s lol

 

 

They were more basic back in the 60's.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

I wonder how warm it will be a t192

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I wonder if google earth will update over this period? The last one was in 06' and i could see the kiddies pool out in the Garden! both kids are now far to big for the pool......ho hum, still got me hammock though......