Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Weather Boy]

I dont like the GFS 6z. This is similar to last Dec when ECM went off on one with a perfect blocking high with roaring easterlies! GFS was also onboard too, but then the GFS started hinting on a different scenario and then only to develop this further amongst everyones disgust and then the ECM happily went along with the GFS's take on things

 

That's a bit like saying that because you have flipped a coin three times and got heads, it's bound to be heads again. Except in a way, it's worse because the synoptics being looked at (not to mention the season) are completely different to December. You are therefore not even comparing the same process, as you would be with my coin example.

 

There is no relationship between what happened in December and what happened now, nor what the models are saying.

 

That doesn't mean you're wrong, but if you're right, it's random, rather than being a scientific judgment.  In any case, I'd hardly call the 6z a dramatic flip.  It's just playing around with possible solutions in the far reaches of FI, like models always do.

[johnholmes]

sk and WB=two very good posts with scientific reasoning rather than non scientific-take note newer folk, believe it or not meteorology is a science albeit with overtones of an artistic flavour in presenting its data!

[Buzzit]

Whatever... : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_fyang.pdf

[Tony27]

lol the 06z showed 15c 16c for parts of the midlands and east anglia for tomorrow, the 12z now has 21c, silly difference at just T24, nice upgrade if it were to happen though

Edited July 1, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

T96 and t120 from UKMO showing the pressure rise

 

 

GFS at t144

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Geordiesnow]

120 hours on the UKMO is a bit iffy in my eyes, would probably ruin any chances of warmth developing in more western areas than if the GFS occured, hopefully the curse of the media ramping things up does not strikes up again! 

 

The UKMO 144 hour chart does recover the situation but for western areas, the GFS is better in respect the orientation of the high as it means less cloud getting into the high thus for most parts of the UK it should be sunny and warm. 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[Milhouse]

A slightly stronger high over the UK on the GFS 12z than the 6z. Could ensure it sticks around for longer.

 

[Evening thunder]

UKMO is fine at t+144 building the high in more compared to at t+120 like most models do:

[Milhouse]

The fine spell lasts into Tuesday

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

120 hours on the UKMO is a bit iffy in my eyes, would probably ruin any chances of warmth developing in more western areas than if the GFS occured, hopefully the curse of the media ramping things up does not strikes up again! 

 

The UKMO 144 hour chart does recover the situation but for western areas, the GFS is better in respect the orientation of the high as it means less cloud getting into the high thus for most parts of the UK it should be sunny and warm. 

 

Don't worry its within the met offices thought's

 

There is reasonable confidence that high pressure will persist across the UK, giving mostly fine and dry conditions with a mixture of variable cloud and sunshine. Some glancing blows from Atlantic weather fronts are still possible across far northwestern parts, bringing some cloud and rain with cooler and breezier conditions at times, mainly western Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland.

 

[NUT]

25C for us for monday afternoon apparently:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.png

 

Can't complain really  

[Geordiesnow]

Don't worry its within the met offices thought's

 

There is reasonable confidence that high pressure will persist across the UK, giving mostly fine and dry conditions with a mixture of variable cloud and sunshine. Some glancing blows from Atlantic weather fronts are still possible across far northwestern parts, bringing some cloud and rain with cooler and breezier conditions at times, mainly western Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland.

 

 

I have to admit the UKMO 120 hour chart on WZ does look more flattering but of course it would be nice if everyone can enjoy this projected warm and sunny weather and it is worth noting the GFS is better imo for this. As it happens, I rather the 144 hour chart on the UKMO as once you start see ridges into Greenland you risk retrogression but on this 12Z run, it does not make too much of it and the rest of the run(upto 192 hours) is very warm and sunny.. 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[Summer Sun]

As per the 06z run GFS shows this high starting to loose its grip later next week so at the moment we are looking at a 5 or 6 day spell of warm to hot temperatures before the high backs south west from next Thursday if GFS is correct

 

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Cheese Rice]

Yep the high could easily sink, T180 is a key transitional point where the low attempts to erode the high.

[Tamara]

I think as suggested this morning that the models may try to be progressive with the High losing its influence. The signal is probably correct, eventually, but chances are that it will be modelled too prematurely - especially with the GFS. GFS is prone to rush signals that it picks up, even though they can be accurate ones, especially further than a week or so away. For blocking scenarios I would trust the ECM better

 

But its not worth taking too much notice of atm - plenty of lovely summer weather is on the way by the end of this week

[mushymanrob]

you missed the point Frosty; my comment concerned those who not long ago said summer is over looking at the charts and now back the idea that there will be a spell of heat for early July?

 

that would be me then!

 

Why emphasise the negatives from what are a stunning set of runs this morning out to Wednesday- and that retrogression is not certain anyway. Looks like the uppers will remain very warm even if the high slips west.

 

 

yes scorcher let's accentuate the positives, there are a lot of those this morning.

 

not negetives, its what the charts were showing this morning, its realism, and concentrating on the positives only like karl lamentably suggests gives a misleading view on what could happen.

[Summer Sun]

Well its all over the media including the beeb now that the met office are going for a warmer than average July if this goes wrong the met office will be getting bashed again

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23132027

 

Lets hope for there sake GFS is wrong and ECM is right

 

The Beeb also have a video up now titled Rumours of a UK heatwave...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23135823

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Apart from a few colder member the ensembles remain summery

 

 

The only ensemble which looks slightly more mixed is the Aberdeen one but even here its not all doom and gloom

 

[Milhouse]

GEFS mean has high pressure once again centred over Northern England next Monday.

[recklessabandon]

Whatever... : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_fyang.pdf

Reminds us what more experienced members keep trying to drive home, that individual GFS runs should be compared over a 24 hr period i.e. 06z vs 06z rather than inter-run comparison (eg 12z vs 18z) as the 06z and 18z are using more limited data sets than 00z and 12z....

[Milhouse]

The ECM gets the settled spell going with a decent looking day on Thursday. It may start cloudy and damp but as pressure rises the day should end fine and warm for areas south of the Midlands.

 

All going to plan for Friday as well with high pressure building and a decent looking day in store for most including Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will, however, be cooler in the north as the warm air is yet to arrive here. Becoming very warm in the south though.

 

[Barry12]

ECM 12z another good run

 

Edited July 1, 2013 by Barry95

[Summer Sun]

High pressure remains with us

 

[Frosty.]

Well we really couldn't ask for more than this, more excellent output from the 12z operational runs this evening, the ukmo 12z is looking very settled and the ecm 12z is another peach, just some intitial forcing on the high across the far northwest this weekend but then nationwide anticyclonic and very warm weather across all of the uk, high pressure looks strongest across the south and the heat is going to build, I would say low to mid 80's F from this weekend onwards and especially through next week, temperatures across scotland lifting into the low 20's celsius during the weekend and probably mid 20's next week, the south will probably get beyond 30 celsius next week and high pressure should hold across most of the uk apart from possibly the far northwest corner for much if not all of next week, a hot and sunny outlook is almost within our grasp..ENJOY.

[Milhouse]

Saturday through to Monday look very warm or hot on the ECM. The question at the moment looks to be while areas will see the peak of the warmth. With high pressure centred over the there will always be light sea breezes keeping the coasts cooler but i dont see there being any extensive low cloud and cool temperatures anywhere. From Tuesday onwards the high begins to drift back out into the Atlantic so low cloud may become more of a feature in the east but the high temperatures would continue elsewhere, with the chances of 30c being concentrated in the south coast e.g Bournemouth.