Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013

[Evening thunder]

Anyone know why these watches only ever cover England?

 

Not really sure, may be something to do with the health authorities rather than the Met Office. May be that it's less common outside England but certainly possible so not sure why.

 

Temp still only 18.7 here.. meant to have a ENE flow but have had quite a brisk sea breeze since morning and it's effecting the temperature a lot more than yesterdays. Warming up to the forecast 22/23c inland but not here. I was thinking a few days ago we could get a longer chain of >25c maxima here, looks like it might not even be >20c

[reef]

Stuck at 15.8C here under overcast skies again after a brief earlier max of 17.1C.

 

The mean maximum temperature here this month so far is a rather average 20.8C. The absolute max so far is 25.7C, we've only topped 24C twice and 6 out of 11 days have been below 20C.

 

The mean temperature is actually 0.5C below average aswell.

[leehws]

Another lovely sunny day here, not a cloud in the sky. Feeling much fresher today, with the temperature currently at 21.3C

[Bobby]

22.8c here, a few degrees down on yesterday. Low humidity too, only 29% at the moment.

Clear blue skies all day again. Barely a cloud since this spell started.

[Bottesford]

21.4c max at the moment so 1c warmer than yesterday - and of course much sunnier.

Don't like the look of all that cloud sat out in the North Sea - don't want anymore of that this week!

[Jax]

22oC here in the shed now

[Derp Patrol]

Average max so far here this month has been 26.9C so about 3C above average

[Evening thunder]

only 18.0c now and temp falling slowly, would never have thought a chart like this http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130711/12/03/h850t850eu.png

would be so cool in my back yard! (especially with 100% sun). 

 

Having said that it is still nice with the sun, and doesn't feel as cool as I'd expect compared to recently.. still feels pretty warm or even hot in the strong sun.
 

Edited July 11, 2013 by Stormmad26

[SunnySouthCoast]

Hotspots at 4pm

 

Castlederg 28.5C

 

Thomastown 27.5C

 

St Angelo 26.4C

 

Strathallan 26.1C

 

Belfast 26.0C

 

Lough Fea 26.0C

 

Portglenone 25.8C

 

Aviemore 25.7C

[Milhouse]

Awful day here with a nagging chilly feeling. Looking forward to seeing the back of this northeasterly.

[Scorcher]

An absolutely stunning day in Manchester today- the day started off cool but it's turned into one of the best days of this entire spell with perfectly clear blue skies, low humidity and 24C. Very Californian in feel today.

[Milhouse]

Latest Look North forecast showing just 18c for Skegness tomorrow so still not great there. But go 20 miles inland and it should be up to 24c and perhaps 29c in the Vale of York.

[The PIT]

Pleasant enough today but unfortunately the heat will be on it's way back. Yesterday was below average believe or not coming in at 14.1C while the day before came in at 20.1C.

[Bottesford]

Lovely sunny day albeit only average in temperature (21.4c). 

Looks like its finally time for some heat to arrive in this location over the next few days!

[be cause]

Another 28c in sunny sizzling Tyrone .. please ... anyone is welcome to a few degrees ..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21.4c max at the moment so 1c warmer than yesterday - and of course much sunnier.

Don't like the look of all that cloud sat out in the North Sea - don't want anymore of that this week!

 

My temps in the west seem higher than yours, 24.3c max today, tuesday warmest day at 28.0C, bbc seems to suggest north sea mist

[AderynCoch]

Cloudless skies and another warm day. I've seen worse blips before.

[Derp Patrol]

32C for central southern and south eastern spots on Saturday I expect... the first proper hot weather of the year is on the cards! We could possibly achieve 30C for 7 days in a row, not seen since 2006 here. Although I think in 2010 around Wimbledon time there was a 2 week spell where we hit 30C 4 or 5 days in a row and had +26C for 2 weeks. Generally though the last few years we have struggled to have more than 2 or 3 days in a row of temperatures above 30C, I'm hoping next week will change this!

[Evening thunder]

Already down to 14.4c here, feel like it might be a cool night with skies remaining clear from this low starting point.. feels more like a cool (but sunny) north-westerly today here. Funny what this wind off the sea/sea breeze has done locally.

 

Hopefully a bit warmer tomorrow, though still a sea breeze forecast, then Saturday the Met Office have 29c forecast for Exeter! not seen that since 2006 (and their forecasts have been a degree or so under what's occurred most days too, except today)

Edited July 11, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Mountain Snow]

Bit of a scorcher today, very muggy with the humidity and lack of wind. Temp still at a lovely 22C.

[Roger J Smith]

Longer range charts have the look of an extended warm, dry spell that could become very hot if the core of the upper and surface highs drift a bit closer to northern France. With this set-up of a core of the hot air mass over Ireland, they are getting the largest anomalies (masked somewhat by lower variance) and even now with similar departures over southern England it would be 30-31 C every day. The current pattern allows for extensive regional meso-scale incursions of cooler air (to call them sea breezes would be an understatement, it's more like a regional air mass highly modified by the North Sea whereas the Irish Sea is just producing weak sea breezes). Noting also that sea surface temperatures are steadily recovering from their March-induced low values and if all factors come together in what is often the hottest 2-3 weeks of summer later on, this could start to rival 2003 or give that brief record hot spell in late July 1948 a run (CET daily mean value of 25 in that spell).

 

My forecasting system (which indicates a peak of warmth in late July) probably doesn't have the fine tuning to distinguish signals of blocking at 15W or 5W, but a shift on that rather subtle scale could turn this warm spell into a rather dire heat wave and then drought has to become an increasing concern. The maps look superficially similar to the core of the 1976 heat wave but it's that slight westward displacement in 2013 that is turning this into more of a near normal dry spell set-up for east-central regions.

Edited July 11, 2013 by Roger J Smith

[cheese]

Good post Roger.. just need that high to move itself east a bit and it'd be something truly exceptional I bet.

[Bottesford]

Yes hope it moves a bit to the east as temperatures have been nothing special or in fact just average half the time. 

Long overdue some real 30c+ heat now!

[NUT]

Got to admit saturday is going to be quite welcoming! I do like heat but this has not been all that comfortable here this spell especially today (however long comfort lasts who knows) but i'll take it!

[Tony27]

lovely day, clear blue skies after the cloud cleared at around 10am,  but i was shocked to find out the max was only 19.4c it felt much warmer than that, the bbc had 22c for me, so yet again another overcooked temp forecast but i don;t care as it felt very nice anyway

Edited July 11, 2013 by Tony27