Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013

[gottolovethisweather]

i know but we found that out via bbc graphics, fax charts etc, if we only looked at the 500mb charts we would say where the hell has all this cloud come from, so why do we bother looking at the 500mb charts? apart from making us happy by seeing all those nice fancy red colours, which in truth is deceptive on days like monday and today

 

plus it is windier than the 500mb charts look too

 

From one Tony to another, I'm confused by your statement as to why do we look at the 500mb charts? The 500mb charts, not that I'm totally familiar with the details show the projected weather patterns through a cross-section of the atmosphere at a NH (Northern Hemisphere) perspective. As many will realise, including your good self, day to day detail is much harder to predict at t+72, t+144, t+240 hours, simply through randomness of the changing weather elements at ground level, i.e. where it affects the observer. As Bottes suggested, this particular situation with the cloud was well forecast at quite a long range and at least we can thankful for that. This meteorology business is a tough one to get to grips with and we are all still learning (even the professionals) as to why the global climate, yet alone the U.K climate does this or tother.

 

As for Temps, I maxed out at 25.6c which is certainly respectful enough given the wind. On that particular not, annoyingly, I cannot confirm the wind speeds as my 2nd Davis Anemometer has decided to stop recording wind speeds, another reed switch issue I believe.  

Edited July 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Backtrack]

Still sunny for the most part today with a more humid feel. So I'm ticking today off as another winner.

 

I just hope I'm on the right side of that divide next week.

 

We will be mate

[Richard2901]

Not impressed by this spell of weather at all. Nothing like the best for 7 years. I've not had one day of wall to wall sunshine and 2 days have seen below average temperatures with today utterly disgusting - slate grey skies and only 13C at noon, 15C later.

 

Friday and Saturday were actually the sunniest days when the synoptics did not look so good with the high not yet completely over us. Since it did move over us on Sunday there's been much more cloud. Yesterday was infuriating with 26C and sunshine during the working day then 16C and overcast by late afternoon so unable to sit outside when I got home from work for 2 days in a row now.

 

March 2012 was much better than this - more sunshine and more consistent warmth. That is the only time in recent years I can remember it being good enough to sit out in the garden every evening for a whole week which is just ridiculous at a time of year when the average max is still in single figures and 10C lower than in summer.

Edited July 10, 2013 by Richard2901

[Bottesford]

Such a narrow range of temperatures today - from 16.6c min to 20.4c max thanks to the cloud cover.

Cloud is making it feel a nice evening actually as still 18.8c. Forecast is for it to fall as skies clear later (why o why must they clear at night!) so might turn cooler with BBC going for 11c - hope not that'd kill my pepper flowers dead!

[WheresTheSnow]

This settled spell has been very good for my area, we've had wall to wall sunshine from Friday - Tuesday (few clouds on Monday though) and its been more sunny than cloudy today too even though BBC had it down for mostly cloudy. And it's looking like it's going to be getting warmer again going into the weekend and into next week - not much more I could ask for

Edited July 10, 2013 by WheresTheSnow

[Jax]

dropped to 17.7oC here, bit suprised by that, thought the cloud cover would keep the temps higher than that.

[Derp Patrol]

This is a very nice spell of weather. The last few years have brought the coldies back proclaiming that our summers will become worse and worse based on only a few years of below average summers. In fact spells like this used to be pretty common prior to 2007, it is noteworthy because of the poor summers in the last 6 years, but really we used to have many summers where high pressure would sit over the UK for prolonged periods bringing warm and sunny weather without the heat, as we are seeing now! 

[Scorcher]

Looking at the models tonight I wonder if the first 18C+ CET month for quite a while could be on the cards. The miserable doomsayers are absent against this evening after reappearing briefly in the model thread yesterday when they thought cooler, unsettled weather might be on the way. They might be waiting some time!

[The PIT]

Just checked at high was 19.8C just after midnight. Got all the windows open getting the heat out of the house helped with an evening breeze. Cloud now thick enough for a bit of drizzle. Tomorrow should be pleasant like Monday if the cloud goes away.

[Evening thunder]

Such a narrow range of temperatures today - from 16.6c min to 20.4c max thanks to the cloud cover.

Cloud is making it feel a nice evening actually as still 18.8c. Forecast is for it to fall as skies clear later (why o why must they clear at night!) so might turn cooler with BBC going for 11c - hope not that'd kill my pepper flowers dead!

 

Surely 11C min is not that unusual in summer? (in fact not far off average here)

 

4th day over 27C in a row, before this I hadn't had 4 days over 25C in a row since I started keeping data in October 2007. At times a sea breeze but it didn't make much impact on temperatures, probably just recirculating warm air from inland that comes over the top before flowing at low level back inland, if that makes sense.

 

When the sea breeze went for a bit the temp rose a degree or so to reach the max of 27.2C. A change in the look of the weather through today, much of the day sunny with clear blue sky, but then more cumulus cloud and high level hazy cloud later this afternoon gave the sky a milky look with quite a bit of cloud at one point (still pretty warm), now back to blue skies.

[Jax]

Just checked at high was 19.8C just after midnight. Got all the windows open getting the heat out of the house helped with an evening breeze. Cloud now thick enough for a bit of drizzle. Tomorrow should be pleasant like Monday if the cloud goes away.

doing the same here, winodws open whilst cloudy and getting the heat out of the house ( Ironic as it is 3 degrees higher indoors now than deep winter when I had the heaters running to just reach at a push 16oC)

[Bottesford]

Surely 11C min is not that unusual in summer? (in fact not far off average here)

 

4th day over 27C in a row, before this I hadn't had 4 days over 25C in a row since I started keeping data in October 2007. At times a sea breeze but it didn't make much impact on temperatures, probably just recirculating warm air from inland that comes over the top before flowing at low level back inland, if that makes sense.

 

When the sea breeze went for a bit the temp rose a degree or so to reach the max of 27.2C. A change in the look of the weather through today, much of the day sunny with clear blue sky, but then more cumulus cloud and high level hazy cloud later this afternoon gave the sky a milky look with quite a bit of cloud at one point (still pretty warm), now back to blue skies.

 

13c min is average here I believe. It isn't unusual but pepper plants don't like it below 15c - they just drop flowers & hardly fruit if at all. Keeping my eye on it this year and heating the greenhouse on chilly nights.

 

This spell here:

>25c - 4 days (Fri, Sat, Sun, Tues)

>27c - 1 day (Sun 27.1c)

[J10]

South and West coast of Wales places to be today - should be glorious, perfect for that dip, UV levels pretty much at their highest..

Was expecting more cloud here, prolonged sunshine continues albeit sometimes on the hazy side. Beautiful again

Indeed a perfect summers day until around 2pm, but a few more clouds and more especially haziness thereafter, but generally mostly sunny.

 

In the past hour or so, more general cloud with a mix of sunny intervals/bright weather.  (originally posted at 6pm)

Rather muggy at the moment Temps Mumbles Max 23.0c, Blackpill 25.4c

Minimum last night (Mumbles 18.5c)

Update Final Max at Mumbles was 23.8c

Edited July 10, 2013 by Jackone

[Summer Sun]

From the met office

 

It has recently been confirmed that the new highest temperature of the year so far has been recorded at Edenfel, County Tyrone in Northern Ireland on Monday 8 July, reaching 29.9 C. Before this, 29.7 C at Bournemouth Hurn on Sunday 7 July was the previous UK maximum. Meanwhile, Scotland saw its highest temperature of the year so far during the afternoon of Tuesday 9 July, reaching 28.7 C at Strathallan Airfield. Edinburgh Gogerbank was nearly as hot with the temperature peaking at 28.5 C.

[AderynCoch]

We will be mate

I'm blaming you if it turns out otherwise.

 

You made a good point on the model thread - terms like "southern areas" and "the North West" are pretty vague, especially for this neck of the woods. This is northern England but also southern Britain. It's on the western side of England but fairly central as far as the UK is concerned. It's on the west coast yet farther east than Edinburgh. It's NW England but also southern NW England, meaning the weather here tends to be more like the North Midlands than Cumbria - when the forecast mentions "W Scotland & NW England" I usually take that not to mean the south of the region.

 

All this means it's often hard to tell what the weather will be like here based on these vague geographic descriptions alone. At least in London for example you're always in the south.

Edited July 10, 2013 by AderynCoch

[Backtrack]

I'm blaming you if it turns out otherwise.

 

You made a good point on the model thread - terms like "southern areas" and "the North West" are pretty vague, especially for this neck of the woods. This is northern England but also southern Britain. It's on the western side of England but fairly central as far as the UK is concerned. It's on the west coast yet farther east than Edinburgh. It's NW England but also southern NW England, meaning the weather here tends to be more like the North Midlands than Cumbria - when the forecast mentions "W Scotland & NW England" I usually take that not to mean the south of the region.

 

All this means it's often hard to tell what the weather will be like here based on these vague geographic descriptions alone. At least in London for example you're always in the south.

 

By all means do looking at the models it's shifting further north each run, soon the trend will be for the high to be back over the top of us!

But yeah, I hate the typical southern bias on these forums, it's too hard to define where they're talking about, usually just IMBY'ism.

[Milhouse]

Going by tonights 12z models this thread could keep going for quite some time.

Hopefully come Friday i will be reporting some temperatures worthy of the title, especially given its shockingly cool at the moment at only 12.4c

[phil nw.]

This is for the posters who are asking about the north-south split term in model discussion such as Backtrack has.

The term N/S split can confuse i agree.

 

In all honesty in this pattern with the AH ridging and then easing back it is a moveable boundary.

It may  be only areas of NW Scotland-say north of the great glen and the N.Isles see cloud and rain or the more unsettled regime could apply further south to include say Scotland,N.ireland and even the North of England near the borders eg.lakes and Northumberland.

It really depends on the track of the lows passing across to the north and how far into the UK the attendant frontal systems get.

 

In a medium term assessment of the models when looking at means and anomalies this fine detail cannot be accurately determined -at least until usually within 2-3 days of the expected event.

In these instances i use the general term to indicate that the further north in the UK you are the more unsettled the outlook.

I tend to think when saying the south looks settled i am including much of England and Wales apart from the Lakes/Cumbrian area where Atlantic westerlies over the top of a ridging high can spread in hill and coastal fog/drizzle at times.

 

As i say the boundaries will vary depending on the surface details-sometimes there is a transistional area in between too where the cloud and breeze gradually increases as you go further north until you find the rain.

 

Sorry there's no approved definition as far i know we just have to take this from whatever charts we are viewing at the time.

Edited July 10, 2013 by phil nw.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Top temperature for 10th July was 28.1C at Solent, the 4th day in a row of +28C temperatures here.

[AderynCoch]

From the met office

 

It has recently been confirmed that the new highest temperature of the year so far has been recorded at Edenfel, County Tyrone in Northern Ireland on Monday 8 July, reaching 29.9 C.

It's certainly been an impressive hot spell for Northern Ireland. 29.9C is within a degree of the all time record of 30.8C.

 

Aberdeen Dyce (66.0 hours) and Eskdalemuir (53.4 hours) are about to surpass their July 2012 sunshine totals (69.4 hours and 60.0 hours respectively) A few places in Scotland were still in single figures sunshine-wise at this stage last July. Edinburgh Gogarbank was stuck on a jaw-droppingly low 1.6 hours, compared with 70.1 hours so far this month - that's over 43 times more sunshine.

Edited July 10, 2013 by AderynCoch

[conor123]

Upgrades have continued on the 18z, wouldn't be surprised to see 32c somewhere in the South East this weekend.

In terms of maxes this spell for here thus far:

 

Sat: 25.8c

Sun: 26.2c

Mon: 26.4c

Tue: 26.5c

Today: 23.7c

 

Friday at present seems our best bet for breaching the 28c mark though Saturday could to if that NW Cheshire Gap breeze holds off long enough.

[Milhouse]

There's a reasonable chance that come the end of July Summer so far will be warmer, drier and sunnier than average. Its almost certain to be drier and sunnier. It's just whether July can cancel out the negative temperature anomaly of June

[cheese]

The 18z is just WOW - the heat just gets upgraded, extended and extensive with each run - even the cooler day of Tuesday here now has 26C, possibly 27C projected by GFS, with all days at 25C or above so far. 30C in the South too on multiple days! Perhaps we are on the cusp of something special? I couldn't believe it before but now I am genuinely excited.

 

And now widespread 29-30C on Wednesday, extending into northern England!

Edited July 10, 2013 by cheese

[Tony27]

ok i know it's a bit early to be talking about this, but what if the next three months are drier and warmer than average, how long before we are in drought conditions again with a possible hosepipe ban, its not been that sunny or warm here this summer so far, but it has been very dry

Edited July 10, 2013 by Tony27

[Cheese Rice]

Its super exciting, I live for hot sunny days.

 

30.c possible on Friday round these parts, crazy to think its 13.7c outside now, feels chilly!

Edited July 10, 2013 by Cheese Rice