Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Paul_1978]

er yes.......you obviously missed the humour then.....

...and Gavin's just as bad for liking it!...lol

ha yes, went over my head. Must be the heat ;-)

[Methuselah]

ha yes, went over my head. Must be the heat ;-)

Or you're very short... 

[phil nw.]

Recent precipitation.ens have shown some rainfall around next week and as others have commented this looks like a thundery type off the back of very high uppers drawn from the Iberian area.

This evolution was often seen in past hot Summers and what usually follows is a gentle introduction of fresher Atlantic air with  temps returning closer to average.We often then see a rebuild of the Azores high but held closer to it's natural home with ridging towards the UK.This is something like the T240hrs means were showing earlier today.

 

So the overall pattern resets but perhaps with less heat around for a while.

Ens graph for London

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

shows some rain spikes for next week and that return to somewhat cooler temps.

[Milhouse]

This mornings GEFS 6z mean indicates a renewed building of high pressure from the south towards the end of the month.

 

Upper temperatures still above average

 

[Milhouse]

UKMO supporting a hot easterly developing

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again shows the heat building UK wide (Scotland included) as the weekend comes

 

 

If anything next week turns even hotter with +15 uppers over the south

 

Edited July 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday sees the low in the Atlantic moving south as the high stays firmly over the UK +15 uppers remain over the south so mid 30's look very possible

 

[shaky]

Oh my days the ecm just keeps getting hotter an hotter!!what a frikkin 12z so far!!am pretty certain some parts of england and wales would hit the mid 30s from sunday this week all the way till next thursday!!thats five days of dangerous heat!!try keepin cool folks!!

[Milhouse]

Later on the high nudges east with the heat remaining and less of a northeasterly for eastern coasts. t+240 should be epic.

 

[Summer Sun]

Very little change by mid next week with high pressure remaining in charge and the low in the Atlantic continues to fizzle out

 

 

No sign of any major breakdown tonight from ECM basically the heatwave continues for the forseeable future and if anything it will turn hotter next week I don't think we'll break the UK record of just over 38c but we won't be far off with the mid 30's very possible

 

Edited July 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Another dream run for heat lovers from the ECM, that low to the west of Portugal is just what we need to pump up that hot air from the Med. Looks like Mushy may be getting his wish next week with the Azores high completely absent and replaced by a low, and with high pressure stubbornly staying over us things are looking good for a nationwide heatwave.

 

It really is probably the best run I've seen since 2006. July '06 might not be beaten if this came off but July '95 might well be.

Edited July 16, 2013 by Scorcher

[Milhouse]

Soon some serious heat is to push out of Spain into France. At the moment it looks like the UK wil be under the influence of an E/NE flow this weekend. If winds can tilt round to a southerly like the ECM is suggesting in FI then we could be looking at some very high temperatures.

[Captain Shortwave]

 

18C uppers into the South west

 

That chart would be mighty hot!!!

[Methuselah]

 

 

It really is probably the best run I've seen since 2006. July '06 might not be beaten if this came off but July '95 might well be.

And, anyway, there's more to a good summer than a one-off isolated maximum temperature, surely?

[Milhouse]

Run the ECM on one more day then we might well be in record breaking territory.

[Summer Sun]

ECM t240 shows the high rebuilding from the west with no breakdown what so ever in sight tonight +15 uppers up to northern England +20 uppers moving up to northern france

 

 

Almost recording breaking heat from ECM just a day or 2 short in its run

Edited July 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

gfs sees things rather differently, still insisting on a cool down, with this low near the bay of Biscay being the spoiler. We'll see which model stacks up. Evidence for me still supports the gsf's analysis, with ensemble support!

[Supacell]

Surely +18 uppers would bring ridiculous heat, as in upper 30's celsius. Or am I reading this wrong?

[ANYWEATHER]

Gfs has progged a general breakdown in the weather for a few days now, although keeping it hot, Ecm in respect has been all over the place! I expect the ooz ecm tomorrow to go along with the gfs...Just look at the difference....    Ok FI land but Im looking for trends...  Cant wait  for some great thunderstorms......Which obviously will clear the air!!!   

Edited July 16, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

Surely +18 uppers would bring ridiculous heat, as in upper 30's celsius. Or am I reading this wrong?

 

Correct we could be threatening the UK record as well +20 uppers could and a stress  could threaten to breach the 40c mark in some isolated spots like the major cities in the south

 

We got 38.5°C (101.3 °F) with the uppers on the below chart so one can only imagine what +20c uppers would bring

 

[Scorcher]

gfs sees things rather differently, still insisting on a cool down, with this low near the bay of Biscay being the spoiler. We'll see which model stacks up. Evidence for me still supports the gsf's analysis, with ensemble support!

 

I don't quite get the logic here- so you're going to ignore the reliable timeframe from the ECM and focus on the GFS in deep FI? As I said in a previous post, there is no breakdown in the heat shown by the GFS until 228 hrs.  

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM T192

 

GFS T192

 

Considering the timeframe they are both pretty similar in output. 

Do you trust the final ECM frames or GFS in low resolution?

Edited July 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

I don't quite get the logic here- so you're going to ignore the reliable timeframe from the ECM and focus on the GFS in deep FI? As I said in a previous post, there is no breakdown in the heat shown by the GFS until 228 hrs.  

 

The ones who don't like heat are becoming desperate now so they'll look for anything even in deepest FI just like me I suppose when I look for high pressure in FI though I haven't had that problem this summer so far

 

[Dan the Man]

Surely +18 uppers would bring ridiculous heat, as in upper 30's celsius. Or am I reading this wrong?

 

Quick question - how do uppers correlate into surface temperature? Is there a ratio?

 

During the winter, I assumed the general rule of thumb was 500m temps + 5C?

[michail]

Epic Ecm! would that little shortwave of the west of Ireland produce instability/thunderstorms over Ireland?