Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Geordiesnow]

I think some are getting carried away a tad with the output but what I am seeing though is that upper air temps may increase during the weekend but with quite a keen flow off the North Sea, temps are actually forecast to drop during the weekend, only exception to this rule seems to be Northern Ireland and NW Scotland where temps will rise significantly from values being recorded this week. 

 

With such a keen flow off the North Sea, I still have a feeling for some locations(don't mean those people who live near the east coast) low cloud could become quite stubborn. Its one to watch I feel. 

[cheese]

I think some are getting carried away a tad with the output but what I am seeing though is that upper air temps may increase during the weekend but with quite a keen flow off the North Sea, temps are actually forecast to drop during the weekend, only exception to this rule seems to be Northern Ireland and NW Scotland where temps will rise significantly from values being recorded this week. 

 

With such a keen flow off the North Sea, I still have a feeling for some locations(don't mean those people who live near the east coast) low cloud could become quite stubborn. Its one to watch I feel. 

Mostly over the weekend though, as opposed to early next week. We'll see - I think GFS is showing the strongest easterly influence, and even so, an easterly/south easterly at this time of the year can prove to be the hottest wind direction for the UK. As things stand, we've been warmer than the near continent up until recently, coupled with cool sea temperatures. That can change quite easily.

Edited July 16, 2013 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

Better wind direction this run, ESE instead of NE on the 12z

Edited July 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

My my what an 18z gfs run so far!!its showing temps of 32 degrees widely next monday across england and wales!!much better than the 12z so far for heat lovers!!

[cheese]

In fact, temperatures today reached 27C in Church Fenton and 28C in Leeds, with an ESE/SE wind - so wind direction isn't everything.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I imagine all the potential continued warm or hot conditions being spat out on various model runs are  making all the UK beach and ice-cream companies rather chuffed...

 

Only the FI of GFS's 12Z run could remove the smiles on their faces with some Low Pressure systems trying to break back in - though, even then, it doesn't look terribly unsettled. But it does seem as though the chances to less settled conditions are generally still held out in the dreamland area of some models (mostly the GFS and JMA). But I do wonder how much longer the models will be able to keep this up, as their is that chance eventually that the less settled and/or thundery conditions could clearly try and spill into the more reliable time-frames of the models.

 

For the next few days or so, the July-resque conditions do look like they will continue.

[cheese]

Wow!

 

 

Edited July 16, 2013 by cheese

[Geordiesnow]

Mostly over the weekend though, as opposed to early next week. We'll see - I think GFS is showing the strongest easterly influence, and even so, an easterly/south easterly at this time of the year can prove to be the hottest wind direction for the UK. As things stand, we've been warmer than the near continent up until recently, coupled with cool sea temperatures. That can change quite easily.

 

I think the UKMO looks the strongest too me, either way, the GFS do show temps dropping marginally during the weekend apart from the regions I mentioned but there is the potential they could rise again as we go into next week. 

 

A lot of detail to be played out yet but the trend is for high pressure to be just to the North and East of us and for the dry weather to continue for the foreseeable future. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Well... I am speechless, this GFS run is standing by ECM like sister and brother. 

This is getting more and more real now that we could be seeing a possible 'killer' heatwave on the cards, no joke! Its going to be the challenge of my life and surely for many others too trying to sleep in some of the heat we could potentially be witnessing from this weekend into next week! 

[Derp Patrol]

Wow WHAT a good set of charts we have tonight!! 

 

We have waited a long time for this, it's been 7 long years waiting, but this summer is turning into a very memorable one, with no end in sight! 

 

The potential for high temperatures next week is very exciting, I would still not bet on the record being broken, but perhaps the July record of 36.5C could be under threat? Considering 38.5C happened on August 13 2003, we would be a few weeks earlier, meaning a stronger sun, longer daylight hours so the potential could in theory be better for beating it, if we can bring in 20C+ uppers!!

 

At the moment it is still a week away, but if we do have uppers of 20C touching southern UK  - I would bet on temperatures reaching at least 35-37C somewhere!

 

It's been a long time waiting, but finally we have a proper summer!     

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hot hot hot 18z with thunderstorm potential towards the end of hi res courtesy of a low pushing N.

 

If this turns out to be a '76 you heat lovers better let us cold lovers enjoy a '62/'63 winter if it comes along!

 

Edited July 16, 2013 by CreweCold

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hot hot hot 18z with thunderstorm potential towards the end of hi res courtesy of a low pushing N.

 

If this turns out to be a '76 you heat lovers better let us cold lovers enjoy a '62/'63 winter if it comes along!

I'm both mate, heat and cold, cant get enough of either of them! Storms is top of my absolute favourites though, followed by heavy blizzards and thundersnow showers

[Derp Patrol]

Hot hot hot 18z with thunderstorm potential towards the end of hi res courtesy of a low pushing N.

 

If this turns out to be a '76 you heat lovers better let us cold lovers enjoy a '62/'63 winter if it comes along!

 

cfs-4-2-2014.png

 

 

Give over, you guys have been spoilt the past few years   haha

[J10]

Much prefer the ECM into the medium term as the ECM keeps the warmth longer and keeps the chance of any thundery breakaway away, GFS looks potentially wet into the later part of next week.

 

To me this is a feasible outcome, however it goes go a bit against the upper charts at the moment, or at the very least is a bit progressive.

 

I wouldn't be surprised though of a big thundery breakdown, when this spell eventually breaks down.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Give over, you guys have been spoilt the past few years   haha

 

We've had tasters. Dec '10 fizzled out to nothing and Jan '10 was a flash in the pan. What we've not had is a sustained core winter period (early Jan through to mid Feb) of severe cold.

[NorthernRab]

We've had tasters. Dec '10 fizzled out to nothing

 

Except the coldest December in 100 years for Scotland with quite a few days struggling to get above -5'C here!

 

 

Seems almost otherworldly to charts like this:

 

[samadamsuk]

hey all.

 

What was modelled as the Atlantic breezing through a few days ago is now looking like a cut off and continental flow - absolutely amazing charts for seekers of extreme heat like me. Currently it looks like the cut off lower heights will gradually impinge SW towards the UK, and then be caught up again with the main east to west progression, but again this is out in an unreliable time frame and as we all know this is liable to change. If the low heights stay to the SW as modelled and slowly move in, we could see some classic thunderstorm action and reignite the faith that the SW can come off exceptionally well from a plume situation - al conjecture at this point and it may well be that the high ends up stronger (as upper air synoptics favour maintaining imo) so a different scenario, but I will be cramming in the bbq's and lake swims for the foreseeable making the most of this exceptional hot spell!

 

p.s, out of more luck than anything I bought an air con unit on the first day that things started warming up weeks ago - I'd seriousely recommend the purchase if your suffering - it's like an icy breeze ..I think the frequency our weather varies has lessened over the past 7 years, so I'm secretly thinking I'll be using this a few times in the next 7!

 

Sam

[draztik]

It would seem a very noticeable north/ south split is developing from the latest output from GFS. The low from the Bay of Biscay will bring some respite in the short term, with the south warming up thereafter. This is completely in line with the met office, who have been suggesting a north/ south split for a while into August. Some very high temps expected before the low impacts the south west though.

[DTHFCJ]

Just looked on the bbc site,looking at londons 10 day(er)..i know they are just ranges they use on the extended but "could" max out as mon 31c,tues 32c weds 36c and cooling off thurs to 35c (at least they are showing the potential is there) like has been mentioned....

 

paris knocking on 40c door on the thurs.....25th

Edited July 16, 2013 by BALE1

[nitro_deluxe]

Except the coldest December in 100 years for Scotland with quite a few days struggling to get above -5'C here!

 

 

Seems almost otherworldly to charts like this:

 

How many Summers have we had beforehand or where we've had a two perhaps three hot or very hot day heat affair and that was it?

This is turning into something else. That HP is going nowhere fast, other question is, where exactly has all the 'rubbish' or more unsettled stuff gone to?

[TEITS]

Here is how I see things panning out over the next 2 weeks.

 

Tomorrow we may reach 32C around London but this is looking increasingly likely to be surpassed next week when temps could hit 34/35C. However I am a little concerned because these very high temps could occur for several days next week and this could result in health issues for the elderly.

 

The peak of this heatwave will occur in my opinion next weekend when temps may even reach 36/37C as a direct S,ly flow moves up from the continent. This will go with an almighty bang as a cold front will sweep E around the 28th/29th July as a much cooler W,ly flow spreads across the UK.

 

Speaking of storms it does look as though next week will differ compared to this week as isolated potentially severe storms could develop triggered by the very temps.

[Derp Patrol]

Just looked on the bbc site,looking at londons 10 day(er)..i know they are just ranges they use on the extended but "could" max out as mon 31c,tues 32c weds 36c and cooling off thurs to 35c (at least they are showing the potential is there) like has been mentioned....

 

 

Look at Heathrow.... 38 degrees is on there!!!! Incredible!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just looked on the bbc site,looking at londons 10 day(er)..i know they are just ranges they use on the extended but "could" max out as mon 31c,tues 32c weds 36c and cooling off thurs to 35c (at least they are showing the potential is there) like has been mentioned....

Ashford, Surrey showing 38c!

[stainesbloke]

How many Summers have we had beforehand or where we've had a two perhaps three hot or very hot day heat affair and that was it?This is turning into something else. That HP is going nowhere fast, other question is, where exactly has all the 'rubbish' or more unsettled stuff gone to?

 

Scandinavia and Northern Europe, where it belongs

[Derp Patrol]

Ashford, Surrey showing 38c!

 

Both Heathrow and Ashford showing 38C.. and I live slap bang inbetween them.. wow