Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[shaky]

A beauty of a ukmo 12z!!there is no iberian low on that one and also looks like pressure builds again at the end of the run without it turning cooler aswell!!that is one hot run!!

[draztik]

A beauty of a ukmo 12z!!there is no iberian low on that one and also looks like pressure builds again at the end of the run without it turning cooler aswell!!that is one hot run!!

such a shame the gfs and ecm don't agree. The updated ecm will be out shortly, then we can analyze the ukmo's output. Edited July 17, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z shows the warm, very warm & HOT weather continuing with no end in sight to this wonderful spell of high summer weather, next week shows the hottest weather the further southeast you are but warm or very warm everywhere with more blazing sunshine and a few thunderstorms dotted around, just for a few days towards the end of this week there will be more of an E'ly breeze with some misty low cloud across eastern britain which should break up and burn back to the north sea coast once the strong sun gets to work on it, temperatures never look worse than mid to high 70's and mostly into the low to mid 80's F, next week they could rise into the low to mid 90's F further southeast and generally mid 80's, hot and sticky with more of a continental drift next week is my bet.

Edited July 17, 2013 by Frosty039

[Costa Del Fal]

GEM and NAVGEM so far this evening supporting the UKMO with some sort of Azores ridging pushing in again!

[Frosty.]

such a shame the gfs and ecm don't agree. The updated ecm will be out shortly, then we can analyze the ukmo's output.

the gfs 12z is scorching next week, is that not good enough for you?

[Summer Sun]

Perfect from UKMO a cloudy blip in the east this weekend especially along the coast before the high rebuilds from the Azores next week

 

 

As for GFS "scorching" sums it up

 

Glad I bought a fan today (took some finding just about everywhere is sold out here)

 

Edited July 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[storm1080]

I think the issue is what happens post 23/7 , all that [wait for my technical term] -  green air on the 850 UKMO chart near Iceland/Greenland is coming SE to us?

[nitro_deluxe]

Looks to be turning into a classic Summer, now with added convective potential, even as I type - there's going to be a lot of pent up energy to release in the forthcoming days.

[nick sussex]

I think the UKMO at 144hrs looks probably more settled than the reality on the ground. This is a tale probably of two competing highs one to the ne and one to the sw.

Once troughing develops over Iberia and France between those two cells you'd preferably want to see the high to the ne take a hike because this can act as a block to remove that troughing.

The safest route back to lots of sunshine is to see that high to the sw move ne.

[rmc1987]

Not that unusual there - last two years in August it has been over 40C in central / western France. A good pool of heat in Western Europe now (which includes us for once). The breakdown (which will of course come eventually) keeps being delayed and is constantly in the FI part of the ensembles. Look for the scatter on the ensembles - once it starts the reliability falls dramatically.

Some hints at 27/28 which is subsequently the weekend I return from Dubai. By then it is hard to believe warm and settled weather sould continue any longer too.The GFS doesn't show quite as high temps and there's a dip on the ensembles? Edited July 17, 2013 by rmc1987

[Milhouse]

Pleasing to see more in the way of a plume type scenario developing from Sunday onwards with winds swinging round to the east and eventually the southeast drawing up some impressive heat and also leading to the greater chance of some thinderstorms. ECM until recently had more of a northeasterly but has now moved in the direction of the UKMO.

[nick sussex]

The GEFS panels show a messy picture but still very warm or hot upto 240hrs, any troughing that does set up over Iberia and France looks weak with any changes quite slow.

There does seem a reluctance in the ensembles to drive that high to the sw ne which does bring the possibility of a bit of a stalemate over western Europe which then would deliver a more humid, thunderstorms and sunshine type set up.

The ECM out soon so perhaps that will help give us a bit more of a decisive trend.

[Summer Sun]

Another hot one from GFS this evening

 

 

This will be the longest heatwave since 2006 without doubt it may even beat it yet 2006 lasted 2 weeks

Edited July 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

Temperatures falling slightly on Saturday before rising again on Sunday as winds turn easterly.

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure continues into next week with it turning increasingly hotter again after a slightly cooler blip in the east (especially the coast) on Saturday and Sunday

 

[Tim Bland]

GFS steadfast in the breakdown from 27th all ensembles agree

As it has been for the last 4 days as I posted this....

In Topic: Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

14 July 2013 - 21:02

GFS ensembles look quite convinced of a breakdown around 26th / 27th

Edited July 17, 2013 by Tim Bland

[Milhouse]

GFS steadfast in the breakdown from 27th all ensembles agree

 No arguments there as that is what it shows. But still 10 days away.

 

High pressure still putting up a fight on the ECM

 

Uppers of 20c not far away

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure is clinging on by mid week though by this time the risk of some potentially violent thunderstorms is increasing given the heat

 

 

Still big improvements on the 00z run

Edited July 17, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

The ECM is superb up to 168 hrs, a big improvement on the 00Z run, which threw a spanner in the works somewhat this morning and wasn't as hot as previous runs. The 15C isotherm is covering much of England and Wales by the middle of the week which would produce widespread temperatures above 30C, the first such spell since 2006.

[Frank Trough]

This chart from the ECM has surely got to hold some interest for most people?!

 

 

*sorry Gavin, you beat me to it!*

Edited July 17, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[NorthernRab]

GFS steadfast in the breakdown from 27th all ensembles agree 

 

Saying all the ensembles agree that the 27th will be the breakdown is like saying all the blind men agree that the lamp in the room has been turned off.

[rmc1987]

I'd be better off rescheduling my trip away to the 27th as it seems that's where our breakdown will he and next week could be the warmest. Absolutely typical that, if lt does get to say 35c that's so very rare, after a peak like that you can expect if to stop as we have seen when we have hit such highs.

[Methuselah]

Saying all the ensembles agree that the 27th will be the breakdown is like saying all the blind men agree that the lamp in the room has been turned off.

Absolutely NR...Taking 33C as a start point, even 25C would be cooler...We don't, after all, live on the Costa del Sol!

[mushymanrob]

serious question...

 

when does the displaced azores high stop being a displaced azores high and become a high in its own right?

 

what we have had over the last two weeks is a ridge building from the azores high, this then builds and 'leaves home'. the centre is now over the uk... and a linking ridge back to the azores is expected to deteriorate as the cut off low develops, thus cutting off the high from its original position. the high is expected by all models to drift slowly northeastward. now this cannot still be refered to as 'the azores high'.

 

ive always just thought that as soon as it leaves the azores (displaced), its no longer a true azores high.

 

i was wondering what the official take is on this? anyone know?

[Summer Sun]

Low pressure is slowly moving in on ECM but with it, it brings some very hot temperatures for a time