Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[storm1080]

Can we please all stop the petty bickering and nitpicking? We all know, or should know by now, that each and every model run is slightly different from its predecessor...It's not exactly something new...

you refering to +45 mins ago or just now

[Troubleatmill]

TBH i cant see why anyone really wants this plume next week, only my feeling for sure, but surely it always happens that when that set up occurs its like driving a wedge through the block and allowing the advancing atlantic a short cut across us rather than being forced NE, current temps are hot enough?, and better than two hot days and a thunder storm followed by atlantic control  

[storm1080]

@tempestas you seen france at T180 yikes! Fi zone I know

Edited July 18, 2013 by storm1080

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

It might be worth pointing out again that, in blocked situations, especially winter blocks, the GFS has a tendency to want to keep turning the pattern zonal. Therefore, I agree that long-term GFS output is to be treated with even more suspicion than normal!

Yeah. It does have a tendency to spoil the party for winter lovers at times, but our guts always seem to have no choice but to look at it, because it tends to happen right at the last minute! December 2012 a great example, stonking Easterly gone within a flash! 

Synoptics in winter are so much different to now though as the jet stream has way more power in the winter months, therefore able to smash blocks apart quite a bit more easier than summer. The GFS has wanted to turn this to atlantic driven weather for a while now, and its just been laughed at! December 2012 revenge maybe !

[Troubleatmill]

@tempestas you seen france at T180 yikes! Fi zone I know

 Yep storm1080 think we will be like Dorothy if that came off!!!!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is EPIC..we get what the continent gets next week as the airflow becomes more SE'ly, the atlantic looks very benign, a very slack pressure pattern with hot and humid air covering the whole of the uk next week and no sign of anything changing that up to the T+240 hours range and even beyond that, it's similar to the Ecm 00z op run, superb output, the ultimate summer weather pattern for the uk, hot and continental with storms and hot sunshine but more anticyclonic for a while yet with only isolated storms.

[Buzzit]

This mornings GFS 6z OP is absolute canon fodder - in my opinion the differences at +90 in comparison to the 00z are shocking to say the least. The verification stats for the 6z even at short range have gone down the plughole recently (in comparison to the other GFS runs) and the 00z GFS vs the other models has also dropped - putting GFS overall in a poor third at the moment.

 

As I wrote on May 7th : Summer will be above average temperatures and below average rainfall with no northern blocking and my worry was that we would not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern by the start of autumn - I still think this will be proven to be the case.

 

Good luck to those hunting for indications that the pattern will break and we will have a wet and cold August - not going to happen, and if it does I promise I will never post in here again.

[Troubleatmill]

This mornings GFS 6z OP is absolute canon fodder - in my opinion the differences at +90 in comparison to the 00z are shocking to say the least. The verification stats for the 6z even at short range have gone down the plughole recently (in comparison to the other GFS runs) and the 00z GFS vs the other models has also dropped - putting GFS overall in a poor third at the moment.

 

As I wrote on May 7th : Summer will be above average temperatures and below average rainfall with no northern blocking and my worry was that we would not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern by the start of autumn - I still think this will be proven to be the case.

 

Good luck to those hunting for indications that the pattern will break and we will have a wet and cold August - not going to happen, and if it does I promise I will never post in here again.

You could well be right Buzzit, if so its a good shout and well done, but if not no-one thinks worse as its impossible to accurately forecast long term, not a scientist otr computer anywhere on earth can do it, patterns do and always will change regardless of upstream patterns ect..., the tiniest weeniest change somewhere has a knock on right around the globe and changes the weather completely after a full rotation 

[Buzzit]

You could well be right Buzzit, if so its a good shout and well done, but if not no-one thinks worse as its impossible to accurately forecast long term, not a scientist otr computer anywhere on earth can do it, patterns do and always will change regardless of upstream patterns ect..., the tiniest weeniest change somewhere has a knock on right around the globe and changes the weather completely after a full rotation 

I agree in a broad sense with you - is partly why I find recurring statistical anomalies elsewhere on the planet important for my own determination of what the next few months might hold. But by itself, an anomaly does not portend to tell us what the weather will be, and by extension (and as has been discussed many times in this thread) it could be claimed that anomalies also cause our forecasting models to endure certain headaches.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO aside(which is another odd run imo)the heat looks primed to stay with us for most if not all of next week imho.That said,i do expect thunderstorms to become more prevelant as go through the week.

Im still thinking this incredible hot spell will go out with a very large bang.

As for August,who knows.

[Duane S.]

This mornings GFS 6z OP is absolute canon fodder - in my opinion the differences at +90 in comparison to the 00z are shocking to say the least. The verification stats for the 6z even at short range have gone down the plughole recently (in comparison to the other GFS runs) and the 00z GFS vs the other models has also dropped - putting GFS overall in a poor third at the moment.

 

As I wrote on May 7th : Summer will be above average temperatures and below average rainfall with no northern blocking and my worry was that we would not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern by the start of autumn - I still think this will be proven to be the case.

 

Good luck to those hunting for indications that the pattern will break and we will have a wet and cold August - not going to happen, and if it does I promise I will never post in here again.

 

 

Unnecessarily overdramatic final sentence (we'd have no posters left if everybody did that) but I would agree that we are unlikely to experience a cool wet August (taking the month as a whole). Maybe not quite the constant heat (which will probably peak mid next week) and consecutive days with no rain but I can't see any longwave pattern changes going into early August. Beyond that, maybe, but that's a long way down the line...

[Frosty.]

Another excellent Gfs 06z operational run in the high res to T+192 hours, anticyclonic, very warm or hot and sunny for practically the whole of the uk with just a few isolated storms dotted around, chiefly towards the southwest, although not as hot as the ecm is showing, it's still hot with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F and touching 90 F in parts of the south at times, in the low res, as yesterday it's a different story but if this run is the worst outcome next week, I would still take it, it's hot and sunny, what more could we want?

[rmc1987]

This mornings GFS 6z OP is absolute canon fodder - in my opinion the differences at +90 in comparison to the 00z are shocking to say the least. The verification stats for the 6z even at short range have gone down the plughole recently (in comparison to the other GFS runs) and the 00z GFS vs the other models has also dropped - putting GFS overall in a poor third at the moment.As I wrote on May 7th : Summer will be above average temperatures and below average rainfall with no northern blocking and my worry was that we would not revert to a traditional autumnal pattern by the start of autumn - I still think this will be proven to be the case.Good luck to those hunting for indications that the pattern will break and we will have a wet and cold August - not going to happen, and if it does I promise I will never post in here again.

I for one will be happy to see warm and an sunshine in August. I return to the UK on 28th and having seen a breakdown projected I will be disappointed to come back to cooler and wetter weather than when I left.

[Suburban Streamer]

the mjo appears to suggest an eventual orbit into phase 1

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

which for july would suggest

JulyPhase1500mb.gif

 

so make the most of the heat, it looks like a gradual deterioration over the next week before we lose it, and theres no tangible sign of a quick return, of course this applies to fi, so theres time for change, but thats what the models are showing atm.

 

agree that the majority of forecasts suggest a move into phase 1 but we should remember that the signal is currently weak and by the time it gets to a strong enough phase 1 (assuming it does so) it may well be early august so maybe worth bearing in mind the composite for phase 1 in august as well:

 

Edited July 18, 2013 by Suburban Streamer

[legritter]

I totally lost a whole post yesterday ,i think i became overwhelmed by the heat and hit a wrong button .well looking at current charts data the weather continues to sizzle for quite a while yet .brilliant summer weather so we should enjoy it ,but seriouse if you suffer health effects ,perhaps this weekend will bless us with sun and some cooler breezes .noticed a few talking about august ,two weeks away ,28 runs of ECM 56 runs of GFS Till the start of august .ok we have moved on with powerfull computers etc but that far ahead is very dodgy ground .but its nice to be able to discuss the future prospects and great that we have some very knowledgeable posters on Net weather .so the possibility i think of next week if all the elements come together right ,of possibly seeing 34/36 somewhere in the uk ,and severall big bangs ,i think the excitement will mount on this forum like it does in winter with a channell low or fronts stalling with mega snow ,but as we all know the dice could fall differently .im certainly looking forward to MET Office Faxes over coming days to see what mother nature is a Cooking .

[Anti-Mild]

agree that the majority of forecasts suggest a move into phase 1 but we should remember that the signal is currently weak and by the time it gets to a strong enough phase 1 (assuming it does so) it may well be early august so maybe worth bearing in mind the composite for phase 1 in august as well:

AugustPhase1500mb.gif

I asked the question earlier today but it got lost during a busy time, but where and how can I create these composite images?

[Suburban Streamer]

I asked the question earlier today but it got lost during a busy time, but where and how can I create these composite images?

hi

Composites are here...

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[Biggin]

Sorry but I strongly disagree.

 

The temps for the E/SE have been predicted to be much lower on Saturday for several days now and I commented about this due to the E,ly flow off the N Sea having a knock on effect on the temps.

 

By the way I would hardly call temps still 4C above average as cool. A cool max temp in July would be around 17C.

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

Mushy I  would take the gfs low res with a pinch of salt, whatever it shows, the high res is all that matters and it's hot, hot, hot and humid.

 

true frosty

 

however there does appear to be a possible breakdown on the distant horizon, it is being depicted in the gfs, several members are getting carried away stating that theres a re-load afterwards, but it is not showing atm in the runs. now instinct is fine by me, and im not done with heat yet! but the facts are that atm theres a possible breakdown and no sign of a re-load that i can find in any model.

 

hopefully by the time the breakdown becomes reality something will have changed and a re-load will be being shown in the models.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well both GFS and UKMO decide to keep to their own output

No cut off low

 

 

cut off low

 

This little thing is a real hassle to work out. FI is still about Monday (been that for the last few days)

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

Which ever way things eventually break down, we'll have 'spring' (everything a lovely bright green) in either August or September - like 1976!

[Buzzit]

Well both GFS and UKMO decide to keep to their own output

cut off low

 

This little thing is a real hassle to work out. FI is still about Monday (been that for the last few days)

Do not need to go that far out I think +48 is where the difference is as GFS migrates the centre of low pressure from the other side of the Med to reside over Spain : This allows the North Atlantic low to be dragged down whereas the UKMO keeps the low the other side of the Med and this essentially blocks the North Atlantic low from being dragged down. Considering the location I would certainly wait for ECM output before making any judgement

Edited July 18, 2013 by Buzzit

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the 06z ensemble Scotland will hold on to the heat for the longest time

 

[Jax]

So best synopsis is , no clear loss of the heat in the reliable time frame then (by that I mean +t144 anything after is FI)

[95 Degrees]

Not even sure what to make of latest GFS, it's an upgrade for next week's heat in many ways but very messy thereafter to be fair it's a pretty difficult situation to predict, more runs needed to see what pans out post 102h.

Edited July 18, 2013 by 95 Degrees