Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Summer Sun]

Well ECM sticks two fingers up to a full on breakdown tonight apart from some thundery rain brought on by the heat next week its more of the same starting very hot then ever so slowly the temperatures relax but remain above average (high 20's instead of the 30's)

 

 

The only hint of a breakdown is right out at day 10 now which is where its been for a while on ECM

 

 

EPIC ECM for heat and increasingly now storm fans if you hate the heat then you best look away as this heatwave is here to stay for a long time yet

Edited July 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Barry12]

If it went past 240 hours it probably wouldn't be too good

 

 

Breakdown continues to be pushed back though, if theres a breakdown at all

Edited July 18, 2013 by Barry95

[Geordiesnow]

UKMO is reletively consistent in trying to bring the trough crashing into the British Isles whilst ECM/GFS both are still against it. 

 

I won't rule out the UKMO by any means as these troughs are very hard to predict but more runs are needed. I still think the trend maintains that the further South and West you are, the more chance of thunderstorms breaking out whilst the further North and East its more likely to be drier but in Eastern areas, quite cloudy with a lot of low cloud I would of thought. The fact that the uppers are so warm may mean temps may still get into the low twenties in some eastern areas but I do think for those who do live in the East, a spell of cloudy weather looks possible. 

Edited July 18, 2013 by Geordiesnow

[draztik]

 EPIC ECM for heat and storm fans if you hate the heat then you best look away as this heatwave is here to stay for a long time yet

isn't it foolhardy to rely on one model? Other models do not show this.. But please, carry on.

[Bristawl Si]

No surprise about the 'blip' coming next week.

Then maybe back to "as you were".

I aint gotta clue - just guessing. At least i'm honest.

Not sure about "facts" though - these guys must be mega rich already with their foresight! LOL!

[Barry12]

UKMO is reletively consistent in trying to bring the trough crashing into the British Isles whilst ECM/GFS both are still against it. 

 

I won't rule out the UKMO by any means as these troughs are very hard to predict but more runs are needed. I still think the trend maintains that the further South and West you are, the more chance of thunderstorms breaking out whilst the further North and East its more likely to be drier but in Eastern areas, quite cloudy with a lot of low cloud I would of thought. The fact that the uppers are so warm may mean temps may still get into the low twenties in some eastern areas but I do think for those who do live in the East, a spell of cloudy weather looks possible. 

 

Do you ever think there won't be cloud?

[Summer Sun]

isn't it foolhardy to rely on one model? Other models do not show this.. But please, carry on.

 

ECM has been very consistent with this heatwave and it continues to be

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO is reletively consistent in trying to bring the trough crashing into the British Isles whilst ECM/GFS both are still against it. 

 

I won't rule out the UKMO by any means as these troughs are very hard to predict but more runs are needed. I still think the trend maintains that the further South and West you are, the more chance of thunderstorms breaking out whilst the further North and East its more likely to be drier but in Eastern areas, quite cloudy with a lot of low cloud I would of thought. The fact that the uppers are so warm may mean temps may still get into the low twenties in some eastern areas but I do think for those who do live in the East, a spell of cloudy weather looks possible. 

Thats a fair post GS funnily enough parts of scotland and NI might not see any rain until next weekend if ecm verfifies.

Its absolutely staggering that parts of the country have not seen rain since the start of july.

WRT to the trough,its crucial to how next week pans out,im hoping the king (ecm)has it nailed.If ot has,surely july 2013 will be up there with the very best inc 1976.

[Captain Shortwave]

isn't it foolhardy to rely on one model? Other models do not show this.. But please, carry on.

Shows the breakdown is NOT nailed on by any means 

[The Northern Ramper]

I keep reading about how it's going to warm up next week and then breakdown, It's warm enough now for goodness sake so enjoy what we have.

[mushymanrob]

.... so its the old stand off... the gfs (breakdown) vs the ecm (no breakdown, just a modifying of the heatwave).

 

the gfs has been consistent in insisting there will be a breakdown then a return to the atlantic, but thats the only model that goes out far enough into fi to show it. and as oldmetman pointed out, its the gfs's default setting... westerly zonal.

 

the difference is the track of the cut off low, the gfs suggests a normal transit from iberia/biscay, across us, and to our northeast. this doesnt happen with the ecm as a ridge builds between 'our' high which drifts to our northeast...and the azores high, thus trapping the cut off low.

 

so... pretty substantial differences, but which model will be proven to be closer to the mark in a week or so's time?

[Frosty.]

The intensification of our hot spell is still very much game on tonight, another scorching Ecm 12z as last night and the night before, a plume of extremely hot and humid (by uk standards)  continental air forcing it's way northwards into at least the southern half of the uk next week as our anticyclone migrates further northeast and pressure slowly falls to the southwest/west with an increasing threat of storms, I think there will be fireworks and I think some record high maximum temperatures are probable if the ecm verified and the heat & humidity carries on to T+240 hours, there is still a good chance the hot spell will carry on beyond the end of next week, at least for the south and east. These charts show how our current heatwave builds and builds and finally peaks towards the end of next week, a very continental look to our weather next week, the pinnacle to the most glorious spell of uk summer weather since July 2006 is still to come.

[ANYWEATHER]

.... so its the old stand off... the gfs (breakdown) vs the ecm (no breakdown, just a modifying of the heatwave).

 

the gfs has been consistent in insisting there will be a breakdown then a return to the atlantic, but thats the only model that goes out far enough into fi to show it. and as oldmetman pointed out, its the gfs's default setting... westerly zonal.

 

the difference is the track of the cut off low, the gfs suggests a normal transit from iberia/biscay, across us, and to our northeast. this doesnt happen with the ecm as a ridge builds between 'our' high which drifts to our northeast...and the azores high, thus trapping the cut off low.

 

so... pretty substantial differences, but which model will be proven to be closer to the mark in a week or so's time?

Well Mushy, in my eyes the gfs and ecm are similar in there evolution , details at this stage are impossible to call, but what is screaming out to me is the thundery potential for southern uk  

[Summer Sun]

Here is the last summary from Gibby tonight

 

In Summary it's a mixed bag tonight with GFS flying the flag in the breakdown corner with ECM and probably NAVGEM less convincing on this score with further fine and warm weather shown with the occasional summer thunderstorm possible at times. GFS has showed this more progressive change now for some days and backed by it's ensemble data we cannot discount it but it does seem isolated when placed in context to the other models who prefer a more gentle breakdown in synoptics with scattered thunderstorms in continuing warm conditions more likely than general cool Atlantic winds. It's a case of more runs required I'm afraid tonight.

 

Full analysis here - http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

Edited July 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frank Trough]

isn't it foolhardy to rely on one model? Other models do not show this.. But please, carry on.

isn't it foolhardy to post this without nodding to the fact that the ECM is statistically speaking the best performing model? Or are you one "those" that chooses just to "prefer" another model regardless of the facts?If people want to talk about form horses then the ECM has more chance of verifying than any other model simply because it is, unequivocally, the best the model. However, all that said, one can't ignore the other models general idea. I think a "change" is almost nailed - how it will manifest itself is another thing.One thing is certain - the GFS post t+ 192 won't verify. It never does. The theme might be close, the details won't be and when you live on an Island only 500 odd miles long the details are important - i think you need to try and understand this, draztik. Edited July 18, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[Milhouse]

Indeed, some stormy activity looks quite likely within the next 10 days. The SW would be first to witness this. Dry for all over the weekend though.

[draztik]

isn't it foolhardy to post this without nodding to the fact that the ECM is statistically speaking the best performing model? Or are you one "those" that chooses just to "prefer" another model regardless of the facts?If people want to talk about form horses then the ECM has more chance of verifying than any other model simply because it is, unequivocally, the best the model. However, all that said, one can't ignore the other models general idea. I think a "change" is almost nailed - how it will manifest itself is another thing.One thing is certain - the GFS post t+ 192 won't verify. It never does. The theme might be close, the details won't be and when you live on an Island only 500 odd miles long the details are important - i think you need to try and understand this, draztik.

all i know is that we have 3 different models, showing 3 different scenarios. But the underlying theme is for the current weather to breakdown in some way. You state the ecm is the King of the models, and ill start reading more into its analysis once the ensembles shift, but as we are, right now, that isn't the case. Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true. The same with ukmo, gfs. But the gfs has been trending towards a more substantial breakdown for the last 4 days now. The ecm has a slight change of heart tonight, and its jumped upon as evidence this summer heatwave is here to stay. To me, that is foolish. And some members with over 1000 posts really should know better. Edited July 18, 2013 by draztik

[Tim Bland]

ECM looks like a breakdown to me at day 10 so isn't it just a possible delay? GFS has been adamant, with solid ensemble support for 5 days now on a breakdown on 27th so no change there.

[Frank Trough]

all i know is that we have 3 different models, showing 3 different scenarios. But the underlying theme is for the current weather to breakdown in some way. You state the ecm is the King of the models, and ill start reading more into its analysis once the ensembles shift, but as we are, right now, that isn't the case. Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true. The same with ukmo, gfs. But the gfs has been trending towards a more substantial breakdown for the last 4 days now. The ecm has a slight change of heart tonight, and its jumped upon as evidence this summer heatwave is here to stay. To me, that is foolish. And some members with over 1000 posts really should know better.

I completely agree that a "change" is afoot - Let's be honest, after glorious weather from the last weekend in June to what is going to be effectively the last knockings of July it's not really difficult or surprising to call/expect a "change", is it?The ECM won't be correct in the detail either - that's accepted. But the fact remains, statistically it IS better in terms of verification than any other model. Here the ECM and GFS are touting very different outcomes in the long term (worth noting that all of this is beyond the reliable) so we would be well advised to put additonal weighting on the ECM simply because of the mathematics.the result will probably end up being a slackish halfway house between the ECM and GFS with the ECM being nearer and no major longwave pattern change. The south always likely to hold on to any better weather after what has been, so far, a majestic summer down here.The trouble is that too many people want to see mobile westerlies establish - i don't know why especially, other than the fact some people just like them. This summer has suffered on the model thread due to an underlying current of agendas - i get the feeling that a few people haven't even noticed the weather so far in july because they've been glued to the computer screen trying to find low pressure moving in at t+192. This month has been incredible and interesting in it's own right (and will likely get more interesting). Edited July 18, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

all i know is that we have 3 different models, showing 3 different scenarios. But the underlying theme is for the current weather to breakdown in some way. You state the ecm is the King of the models, and ill start reading more into its analysis once the ensembles shift, but as we are, right now, that isn't the case. Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true. The same with ukmo, gfs. But the gfs has been trending towards a more substantial breakdown for the last 4 days now. The ecm has a slight change of heart tonight, and its jumped upon as evidence this summer heatwave is here to stay. To me, that is foolish. And some members with over 1000 posts really should know better.

 

ECM by far has been the best model for accuracy throughout this spell, so it is inevitable that people at the moment are going to trust ECM other than 'boy who cried breakdown' GFS. 

Its kind of foolish trusting FI over a reliable timeframe ECM run if you ask me. 

If you don't like this fantastic sunny hot weather, which it seems abundant that you don't, there's always Lerwick you could take a trip to, which sits at 14c all summer pretty much! Meanwhile, we heat and storm lovers will keep the party going on, cheers

 

 

 

[shedhead]

all i know is that we have 3 different models, showing 3 different scenarios. But the underlying theme is for the current weather to breakdown in some way. You state the ecm is the King of the models, and ill start reading more into its analysis once the ensembles shift, but as we are, right now, that isn't the case. Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true. The same with ukmo, gfs. But the gfs has been trending towards a more substantial breakdown for the last 4 days now. The ecm has a slight change of heart tonight, and its jumped upon as evidence this summer heatwave is here to stay. To me, that is foolish. And some members with over 1000 posts really should know better.

Indeed...we see model verification gibberish posted ad infinitum, but the truth is the best performing model in here is always the one that shows the coldest evolution for the longest period in winter and the hottest evolution for the longest period in summer.  Some members will slag the GFS off at 12, only to then declare it the next messiah 6hrs later.

 

Bottom line tonight is the big 3 are split, UKMO going for full, early breakdown, GFS going for moderate, medium term breakdown and ECM going for slow, neligible breakdown. So you pays yer money and takes yer choice; I think UKMO to be closest to the mark, most in here would say they think ECM will be, but mainly because that is what they want, rather than what they firmly believe.  The actuality will probably be closest to GFS, which is often the case when any model occupies the middle ground of the two extremes, but as ever time will tell.

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[cheese]

 Again, just because one model is showing less of a breakdown, doesn't make it factually true.

I think you're confused - nobody is saying a breakdown won't occur, in fact, I'm certain most members have acknowledged that already, but certain people are jumping on the breakdown bandwagon simply because the UKMO is more progressive with the idea of a breakdown arriving, as early as Wednesday, when in actual fact, it's the only model to show the breakdown arriving that early, and even then, it isn't full-on raging westerlies. This doesn't mean the UKMO won't verify, but to say the breakdown will arrive on a specific data, and proclaim it as fact, is very silly, and I think you know that. No need for that at all - it will just rile people and provoke arguments, and this time of the year is supposed to be calmer and more level-headed.

Edited July 18, 2013 by cheese

[Jimmy0127]

The trouble is, a discussion in this format doesn't really work if there are 24-stroke rallies between a handful of provocative posters. It just makes it hard to read and antagonising, like youtube comments. Of course there needs to be debate etc, but there has been an abundance of cynical posts that don't offer any fresh information or insight in the last 24-48hrs concerning "the breakdown". That said, I don't have any information or insight so I'll shut up now.  

Edited July 18, 2013 by Jimmy0127

[harryc]

Indeed...we see model verification gibberish posted ad infinitum, but the truth is the best performing model in here is always the one that shows the coldest evolution for the longest period in winter and the hottest evolution for the longest period in summer.  Some members will slag the GFS off at 12, only to then declare it the next messiah 6hrs later. Bottom line tonight is the big 3 are split, UKMO going for full, early breakdown, GFS going for moderate, medium term breakdown and ECM going for slow, neligible breakdown. So you pays yer money and takes yer choice; I think UKMO to be closest to the mark, most in here would say they think ECM will be, but mainly because that is what they want, rather than what they firmly believe.  The actuality will probably be closest to GFS, which is often the case when any model occupies the middle ground of the two extremes, but as ever time will tell.

[Captain Shortwave]

Bottom line tonight is the big 3 are split, UKMO going for full, early breakdown, GFS going for moderate, medium term breakdown and ECM going for slow, neligible breakdown. So you pays yer money and takes yer choice; I think UKMO to be closest to the mark, most in here would say they think ECM will be, but mainly because that is what they want, rather than what they firmly believe.  The actuality will probably be closest to GFS, which is often the case when any model occupies the middle ground of the two extremes, but as ever time will tell.

GFS might have the timing of the low correct (law of averages one would say), but it's onset of westerly Atlantic weather is too quick. I think the trough will stick around for quite a few days with temperatures only falling back slowly as the wind swings from south to west. At this point you can't discount the ECM op just in case thing go in favour of the hot spell continuing. Though I will be adamant about the UKMO being wrong. It has the shortwave over Iberia wrong (it has no support from any other models) which means it's output beyond even 2/3 days output is decidedly dodgy.