Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[storm1080]

Do not need to go that far out I think +48 is where the difference is as GFS migrates the centre of low pressure from the other side of the Med to reside over Spain : This allows the North Atlantic low to be dragged down whereas the UKMO keeps the low the other side of the Med and this essentially blocks the North Atlantic low from being dragged down. Considering the location I would certainly wait for ECM output before making any judgement

I agree with this, a lot could even hinge on T+24, even this close is it a dead cert that the iberian low will pivot underneath anti clockwise that other low, then go off on its rather convulted journey down to spain and back up to us...?

[ANYWEATHER]

Not even sure what to make of latest GFS, it's an upgrade for next week's heat in many ways but very messy thereafter to be fair it's a pretty difficult situation to predict, more runs needed to see what pans out post 102h.

The thundery theme is very much still there and storms likely to become widespread  by Weds for southern Uk, although it looks as though the North will have a lot of dry weather next week!  But of course all a long way off at the moment!

Edited July 18, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[Weather Boy]

true frosty

 

however there does appear to be a possible breakdown on the distant horizon, it is being depicted in the gfs, several members are getting carried away stating that theres a re-load afterwards, but it is not showing atm in the runs. now instinct is fine by me, and im not done with heat yet! but the facts are that atm theres a possible breakdown and no sign of a re-load that i can find in any model.

 

hopefully by the time the breakdown becomes reality something will have changed and a re-load will be being shown in the models.

 

I agree with what I have highlighted, but only due to the significant qualifications you have put in what you said: i.e. by using the words 'possible' and 'distant horizon'.  However, even then I would hesitate because it depends on your definition of 'breakdown'.  If it means a change from the hot sunny weather that we have at the moment with few if any showers then I agree.  If by 'breakdown' one means a change to generally unsettled, cool or average temperatures and changeable Atlantic driven weather then I am not aware of any runs of any of the big three models showing this except GFS way out in low res which frankly is only worth looking at for fun as you may as well get an infant with a crayon. 

 

My interpretation of the current position, as I said before, is that the models are at one on lowering pressure next week, which may give rise to some storms breaking out.  However, it seems likely to remain hot all week and will probably mainly sunny. 

 

That said, it's odd how some have the cut off low and some don't.  I'm not totally convinced that the presence of absence of it would make a huge difference to the ground conditions here, though.

 

I haven't seen anyone speculate on a re-load.  Such speculation is odd to my mind given that we don't know yet what (if any) and when we are going to have a breakdown.  Pure speculation at present

[Tim Bland]

Breakdown still on course for 27th. Very consistent models for this and meto agree. After that who knows but GFS FI would be a real shock with highs around 18c and showers or rain.

[Barry12]

Breakdown still on course for 27th. Very consistent models for this and meto agree. After that who knows but GFS FI would be a real shock with highs around 18c and showers or rain.

 

Why would it be a 'real shock', it's normal british weather

[Derp Patrol]

Why would it be a 'real shock', it's normal british weather

 

 

Definitely not for July.. average max here in July is 23-24C.. especially after the last few weeks it would feel quite cold.

[cheese]

18C would be below average for the majority of England in summer - coupled with showers, it would feel cold.

[Barry12]

Definitely not for July.. average max here in July is 23-24C.. especially after the last few weeks it would feel quite cold.

 

Average max for here is 18C, but I agree after the last few weeks it will feel 'cool'.

[Jax]

Not even sure what to make of latest GFS, it's an upgrade for next week's heat in many ways but very messy thereafter to be fair it's a pretty difficult situation to predict, more runs needed to see what pans out post 102h.

that would also (like me ) indicate only the short term is data is good.

 

 

Think like winter it is harder to call.

[Anti-Mild]

hi

Composites are here...

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Many thanks!

[shedhead]

All this talk of a confused picture going forward is absolute rubbish imo and nothing more than a pointless attempt to avoid facing facts. 

 

Both GFS and UKMO go for a very warm or hot weekend for most away from the east coast (where some places could actually be cool) with just the odd rogue storm around. The first half of next week looks hot, but also increasingly humid, with a growing risk of showers and storms from the south. Later next week it will be cooler and more unsettled, with further rain or showers at times for most, if not all of us - where we go thereafter however is still uncertain.

 

The ECM 00 also pretty much went with this pattern, albeit somewhat slower, but I expect it to fall in line with the above timings come 8pm. 

 

So where is the confusion?

[Costa Del Fal]

All this talk of a confused picture going forward is absolute rubbish imo and nothing more than a pointless attempt to avoid facing facts.  Both GFS and UKMO go for a very warm or hot weekend for most away from the east coast (where some places could actually be cool) with just the odd rogue storm around. The first half of next week looks hot, but also increasingly humid, with a growing risk of showers and storms from the south. Later next week it will be cooler and more unsettled, with further rain or showers at times for most, if not all of us - where we go thereafter however is still uncertain.  The ECM 00 also pretty much went with this pattern, albeit somewhat slower, but I expect it to fall in line with the above timings come 8pm.  So where is the confusion?

As far as I'm aware everyone is accepting the thundery element and thus possibly becoming wetter next week but this isn't till around Thursday or Friday for most.You state after this things become uncertain yet you say you can't see where there is confusion. Well uncertainty implies possible confusion to me.....

[mushymanrob]

Not even sure what to make of latest GFS, it's an upgrade for next week's heat in many ways but very messy thereafter to be fair it's a pretty difficult situation to predict, more runs needed to see what pans out post 102h.

 

...but the ecm is messy, maybe thats why i prefer the gfs, it tidies things up (or did), i like strong synoptics, messy ones are hard to read and produce detail for.

 

I agree with what I have highlighted, but only due to the significant qualifications you have put in what you said: i.e. by using the words 'possible' and 'distant horizon'.  However, even then I would hesitate because it depends on your definition of 'breakdown'.  If it means a change from the hot sunny weather that we have at the moment with few if any showers then I agree.  If by 'breakdown' one means a change to generally unsettled, cool or average temperatures and changeable Atlantic driven weather then I am not aware of any runs of any of the big three models showing this except GFS way out in low res which frankly is only worth looking at for fun as you may as well get an infant with a crayon. 

 

My interpretation of the current position, as I said before, is that the models are at one on lowering pressure next week, which may give rise to some storms breaking out.  However, it seems likely to remain hot all week and will probably mainly sunny. 

 

That said, it's odd how some have the cut off low and some don't.  I'm not totally convinced that the presence of absence of it would make a huge difference to the ground conditions here, though.

 

I haven't seen anyone speculate on a re-load.  Such speculation is odd to my mind given that we don't know yet what (if any) and when we are going to have a breakdown.  Pure speculation at present

 

i chose my words carefully (for a change :lol:) to avoid confusion, i accept low res fi charts are far from reliable.... but atm its all we have to go on.

[storm1080]

£500 extra to leave 2 days early on holiday, just so I can have some of this heat before models change, off to west central france...Worth it? I'm tempted

[mushymanrob]

the uk mo suggests the breakdown (be it temporary or final) for wednesday...

[ribster]

Another excellent Gfs 06z operational run in the high res to T+192 hours, anticyclonic, very warm or hot and sunny for practically the whole of the uk with just a few isolated storms dotted around, chiefly towards the southwest, although not as hot as the ecm is showing, it's still hot with temperatures into the low to mid 80's F and touching 90 F in parts of the south at times, in the low res, as yesterday it's a different story but if this run is the worst outcome next week, I would still take it, it's hot and sunny, what more could we want?

High teens for a vast swathe of the eastern side of the UK this weekend, so neither hot nor very warm, in fact feeling rather cool given recent temps.

[CongletonHeat]

All this talk of a confused picture going forward is absolute rubbish imo and nothing more than a pointless attempt to avoid facing facts. 

 

Both GFS and UKMO go for a very warm or hot weekend for most away from the east coast (where some places could actually be cool) with just the odd rogue storm around. The first half of next week looks hot, but also increasingly humid, with a growing risk of showers and storms from the south. Later next week it will be cooler and more unsettled, with further rain or showers at times for most, if not all of us - where we go thereafter however is still uncertain.

 

The ECM 00 also pretty much went with this pattern, albeit somewhat slower, but I expect it to fall in line with the above timings come 8pm. 

 

So where is the confusion?

Since when did something in the models 7 days + away become facts?

[Milhouse]

High teens for a vast swathe of the eastern side of the UK this weekend, so neither hot nor very warm, in fact feeling rather cool given recent temps.

 

Vast swathes? high teens?

 

[bluearmy]

ukmo continues to be progressive and some posters continue to try and wind up others.  when you have such a big difference on ukmo v ecm at day 6, nothing is certain. it would be ignoring the nwp to state that this settled weather will continue beyond the latter part of next week, especially in the south. the ecm ens members rainfall for london is very clear on this and has been trending so for a few runs now.

[Captain Shortwave]

High teens for a vast swathe of the eastern side of the UK this weekend, so neither hot nor very warm, in fact feeling rather cool given recent temps.

It will reach 21/22C in Beccles I can guarantee you that. 17/18C right on the coast where the cloud will take longest to burn back. I will be cold 

Cut off low on ECM

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[shedhead]

Since when did something in the models 7 days + away become facts?

Fact is the breakdown is coming next Tues/Weds, perhaps Weds/Thurs latest. This period might be 6 or 7 days hence, but model confidence in this overall evolution is already good, it will probably become excellent by 8pm once ECM has swung into line on the timing....though no doubt some will remain firmly in denial.

 

Until then there will be bags of sunshine and heat for almost everyone to enjoy, I suggest members get out there and enjoy it, rather than starting endlessly at a computer screen clutching every straw imaginable to try and counter the inevitable. 

[ribster]

Vast swathes? high teens?

That was the national BBC forecast 45 mins ago, take it up with them. Showed a fair chunk with 18c, the point being it won't be very warm in those areas, let alone hot. No disrespect, but that's the difference between professionals and amateurs with limited data.

[rmc1987]

£500 extra to leave 2 days early on holiday, just so I can have some of this heat before models change, off to west central france...Worth it? I'm tempted

Yeah I'm off tomorrow and back on, yes you guessed it, 28th when the breakdown is due.

[TEITS]

Must admit the breakdown is looking very likely but for me the uncertainty is the timing and how hot it will become prior to the breakdown. Having said this I wouldn't state it as a fact though because after many years of following the models you cannot make such statements especially after day 5 and beyond.

 

Personally im not bothered either way. We are currently experiencing a fantastic heatwave and come next week the risk of storms increases, initially in the SW and then extending NE later in the week.

 

When you have either way above or below temps a return to normal is always inevitable so my advice is enjoy what we currently have.

[shedhead]

ukmo continues to be progressive and some posters continue to try and wind up others.  when you have such a big difference on ukmo v ecm at day 6, nothing is certain. it would be ignoring the nwp to state that this settled weather will continue beyond the latter part of next week, especially in the south. the ecm ens members rainfall for london is very clear on this and has been trending so for a few runs now.

Perhaps better to wait and see what the ECM 12 says ba, before assuming there will still be big differences between it and the latest UKMO output.