Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[davehsug]

GFS might have the timing of the low correct (law of averages one would say), but it's onset of westerly Atlantic weather is too quick. I think the trough will stick around for quite a few days with temperatures only falling back slowly as the wind swings from south to west. At this point you can't discount the ECM op just in case thing go in favour of the hot spell continuing. Though I will be adamant about the UKMO being wrong. It has the shortwave over Iberia wrong (it has no support from any other models) which means it's output beyond even 2/3 days output is decidedly dodgy.

Surely we'll have a better idea what the MET think of their own model when the fax comes out?

[Frank Trough]

Indeed...we see model verification gibberish posted ad infinitum, but the truth is the best performing model in here is always the one that shows the coldest evolution for the longest period in winter and the hottest evolution for the longest period in summer.  Some members will slag the GFS off at 12, only to then declare it the next messiah 6hrs later.

 

Bottom line tonight is the big 3 are split, UKMO going for full, early breakdown, GFS going for moderate, medium term breakdown and ECM going for slow, neligible breakdown. So you pays yer money and takes yer choice; I think UKMO to be closest to the mark, most in here would say they think ECM will be, but mainly because that is what they want, rather than what they firmly believe.  The actuality will probably be closest to GFS, which is often the case when any model occupies the middle ground of the two extremes, but as ever time will tell.

So verifiable statistics are "gibberish"? do you work for Radio 1 at all?

[Cloud 10]

Time for a new thread...

[shedhead]

So verifiable statistics are "gibberish"? do you work for Radio 1 at all?

The stats are fine, it is what's posted about the stats that is often gibberish. No model is consistently the best performer at 144hrs, all the big three have good spells and bad spells wrt verification, but the claims about which one is best frequently seem to coincide with the one that shows the hottest or coldest evolution...odd that eh?

[chionomaniac]

Indeed...we see model verification gibberish posted ad infinitum, but the truth is the best performing model in here is always the one that shows the coldest evolution for the longest period in winter and the hottest evolution for the longest period in summer.  Some members will slag the GFS off at 12, only to then declare it the next messiah 6hrs later.

 

 

Some members do the opposite, Shed. They always choose the scenario in winter that points to the mildest solution and in summer always point to the model that offers the coolest /wettest solution. Can you believe it!? And when the models swap scenarios 6hrs later they too change their allegiance. It works both ways and is obvious to all. (I am still waiting for last Monday's dead cert breakdown - the one that I recorded my hottest temp for the year).

 

One thing is certain when looking out over a week ahead there is no strong signal for a persistent trough over the UK but neither is there a signal for a strong ridge. Teleconnections are looking towards a phase 2 August MJO scenario and do support some idea of southern based weak troughing - but I dare say that this will be difficult to model if it is cut off at this stage. Also the warmer air is not going to dissipate fast - leaving us in a situation where any weak troughing is likely to encased in warm moist air - and we all know what that has potential for......

Edited July 18, 2013 by chionomaniac

[Frank Trough]

The stats are fine, it is what's posted about the stats that is often gibberish. No model is consistently the best performer at 144hrs, all the big three have good spells and bad spells wrt verification, but the claims about which one is best frequently seem to coincide with the one that shows the hottest or coldest evolution...odd that eh?

The ECM is consistently the best performer.

[summer blizzard]

Not really sure what the argument is about, its pretty clear from both models that while it stays warm the hot, settled spell is going. GFS kills it at day 7, ECWMF at day 8.

I strongly suspect that the south and west especially will get some cracking storms in a week or so.

[chionomaniac]

The stats are fine, it is what's posted about the stats that is often gibberish. No model is consistently the best performer at 144hrs, all the big three have good spells and bad spells wrt verification, but the claims about which one is best frequently seem to coincide with the one that shows the hottest or coldest evolution...odd that eh?

That is simply not true. The ECM is consistently the best model at T+144 in the model performance statistics. It may drop below the others for the odd day but otherwise it is extremely consistent. Have a look for yourself: 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_aczhist.html

[summer blizzard]

The ECM is consistently the best performer.

At day 6 yes, at day 10 I have observed it is no better than the GEM.

[Tom Jarvis]

Can Someone post the chart wich shows which model is acherly performing the best. It was very usefull during the winter thanks.

Edited July 18, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[BornFromTheVoid]

No solid signal for a breakdown in the reliable time frame, or in FI, with strong upper level ridging always overhead or nearby.

 

 

We'll see boundless variations outside of the high resolution period. Any output beyond 5-7 days, that lacks cross model support, should be treated with the same scepticism as at any other time of year.

[be cause]

No solid signal for a breakdown in the reliable time frame, or in FI, with strong upper level ridging always overhead or nearby.

 

 

We'll see boundless variations outside of the high resolution period. Any output beyond 5-7 days, that lacks cross model support, should be treated with the same scepticism as at any other time of year.

 

what a difference a year makes !

[Jimmy0127]

GFS 18z less good for those who want the mid-thirties next week, but moves towards rebuilding that lately familiar block:

 

[shedhead]

 

GFS 18z less good for those who want the mid-thirties next week, but moves towards rebuilding that lately familiar block:

 

 

Very much so. Breakdown starts Tues in the SW and becomes nationwide by Thursday. Thereafter GFS say a very firm NO to any rebuild of pressure, indeed

FI is nothing other than cool and unsettled....but of course who takes any notice of FI?

 

Given the fact ECM is the most consistant and reliable model it must come as a big surprise to some that the 18 GFS has not been dragged back into line, but

perhaps that will happen on the 00 runs...as ever time will tell.

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very much so. Breakdown starts Tues in the SW and becomes nationwide by Thursday. Thereafter GFS say a very firm NO to any rebuild of pressure, indeed

FI is nothing other than cool and unsettled....but of course who takes any notice of FI?

 

FI looks like a 2007 re-run. What are the odds of summer 2013 being a '76/'07 hybrid

Edited July 18, 2013 by CreweCold

[Jason T]

what a difference a year makes !

 

 

Or 5. I think July 2013 will be remembered as  a complete wake up call to how the UK can really have a Summer. How many of us have actually thought "Hang on" we actually have a decent summers day outside, Compared to recent and past July periods and said Bugger to Output and Data. My point is July  2013 is the best Summer period since 2006. August 2013 could just go down the pan or Carry on this outstanding theme,either way Im loving it. 

 

Enjoy people, Model output will always be there,This hot Summer theme May (NOT)...Kids break up for half term soon...Always goes down the pan then. 

[shedhead]

FI looks like a 2007 re-run. What are the odds of summer 2013 being a '76/'07 hybrid

No....the breakdown (if it happens) will just be a blip, with high pressure quickly returning and temperatures soaring.  You take far to much notice of GFS, you need to understand that ECM is the most reliable and consistent model, the verification stats prove it...

 

All joking aside, whilst I'd love to see a quick rebuild of pressure from the SW next weekend, the chances of it happening look fairly low at this stage.  Breakdowns from that direction do tend to see a fairly steady improvement thereafter, so I think GFS is almost certainly overdoing it's FI Atlanticality, but at this stage I just don't see a quick way back to anything resembling heatwave conditions during the first half of Aug.

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[ZONE 51]

Would like to post this link, many options and it has a large range of model data the link is on top of page: http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/models/Europe/12-ECMWF-Ensemble/ecmwf-12-10day-850hpa-temp-ensemble.html

Here are a few links to some of those options:

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/models/Atlantic/gfs-00-listings.html

-

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/models/Europe/00-ECMWF-Ensemble/ecmwf-00-10day-850hpa-temp-ensemble.html

-

http://www.eldoradocountyweather.com/current/models/Europe/gefs-00-listings.html

[shedhead]

Double post....must be exited!

Edited July 18, 2013 by shedhead

[Bristawl Si]

No....the breakdown (if it happens) will just be a blip, with high pressure quickly returning and temperatures soaring.  You take far to much notice of GFS, you need to understand that ECM is the most reliable and consistent model, the verification stats prove it... All joking aside, whilst I'd love to see a quick rebuild of pressure from the SW next weekend, the chances of it happening look fairly low at this stage.  Breakdowns from that direction do tend to see a fairly steady improvement thereafter, so I think GFS is almost certainly overdoing it's FI Atlanticality, but at this stage I just don't see a quick way back to anything resembling heatwave conditions during the first half of Aug.

If it becomes more settled again by early August, after next week's likely breakdown, that'll do fine by me.Summer 2013 already looking one of the best of last 20 years down here.

[CongletonHeat]

Edited July 18, 2013 by CongletonHeat

[Bristawl Si]

I've read some garbage on here but you take the biscuit, 15 uppers possibly on thurs according to ecm, yeah sounds freezing.

 

He's been on the wind up all week; just like he is in Winter when a cold spell is about to breakdown.

[CongletonHeat]

He's been on the wind up all week; just like he is in Winter when a cold spell is about to breakdown.

Lol i tried to delete my post as it is a bit uncalled for but now you've quoted it it is stuck there, he's obviously a troll if he tries to wind up the summer and winter lovers.

[Richie V]

Like winter in here, trawling through armfuls of trolling and cr.p to get any decent info, quit it already, use the model moans and ramps thread for that please.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

 

Double post....must be exited!

 

LOL I think most of us can see your excitement when the a breakdown is possible shed(be it winter or summer!! you must have friends in high places on NW).

Back o/t ukmo absolutely insistent on tues being the transitional day as the trough moves in.GFS still insisting later in the week.

Have to say i now expect ecm to back down on its 0z run.

much to my suprise (and relief) ecm does not back ukmo,the plot thickens!!

Edited July 19, 2013 by happy days