Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Fact is the breakdown is coming next Tues/Weds, perhaps Weds/Thurs latest. This period might be 6 or 7 days hence, but model confidence in this overall evolution is already good, it will probably become excellent by 8pm once ECM has swung into line on the timing....though no doubt some will remain firmly in denial.

 

Until then there will be bags of sunshine and heat for almost everyone to enjoy, I suggest members get out there and enjoy it, rather than starting endlessly at a computer screen clutching every straw imaginable to try and counter the inevitable. 

Technically not a fact that it WILL happen on those dates. Things can chop and change?

[TEITS]

Fact is the breakdown is coming next Tues/Weds, perhaps Weds/Thurs latest. This period might be 6 or 7 days hence, but model confidence in this overall evolution is already good, it will probably become excellent by 8pm once ECM has swung into line on the timing....though no doubt some will remain firmly in denial.

 

Until then there will be bags of sunshine and heat for almost everyone to enjoy, I suggest members get out there and enjoy it, rather than starting endlessly at a computer screen clutching every straw imaginable to try and counter the inevitable. 

I think suggesting Tues is a bit early more likely Thurs/Friday for E areas.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1744.gif

 

Still predicting temps widely around 31C before the storms roll in.

[Captain Shortwave]

Perhaps better to wait and see what the ECM 12 says ba, before assuming there will still be big differences between it and the latest UKMO output.

UKMO is very much on it's own with the breakdown on Tuesday/Wednesday. Even at T96 I can tell you the ECM is not backing it.

Nope

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[cheese]

Fact is the breakdown is coming next Tues/Weds

Ah, I see - one model shows a breakdown occurring around the 24th, and that means it will happen, and the other models should be completely disregarded. To my eye, both ECM and GFS look warm to very warm, perhaps hot, beyond Wednesday, retaining warm uppers and high 2m temperatures, and only UKMO shows the possibility of a breakdown, which may not even be a breakdown, but a blip in the current weather, and even then, 850mb temperatures are still above 12C for all Great Britain, and it is still dry, with no rain at all bar isolated showers, so I wouldn't expect temperatures to be below average, cool compared to recently perhaps, but not cold by any means.

 

 

Perhaps you need to start looking at the models objectively - the breakdown will occur, that is a fact, but it is not a 'fact' that it will occur on any given date. You cannot say that - it is very foolish to make such a statement when you simply don't know - none of us do. ECM is rolling out now, so let's see what it thinks.

Edited July 18, 2013 by cheese

[Milhouse]

Monday next week looking particularly hot and humid with very light winds and upper temperatures around 15c.

 

[Summer Sun]

After a slightly cooler and cloudy blip this weekend things rapidly turn very hot early next week

 

 

Temperatures could easily hit the mid 30's in some spots, it looks as if this heatwave is about to get more intense after a cooler blip in the east at the weekend.

 

I wonder if we'll see a national emergency heatwave warning (level 4) early next week its possible if we see these sort of temperatures

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Perhaps better to wait and see what the ECM 12 says ba, before assuming there will still be big differences between it and the latest UKMO output.

Ecm doesn't agree with ukmo.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Monday next week looking particularly hot and humid with very light winds and upper temperatures around 15c.

How long is the cool/low cloud blip gna be here in east is it just sat and sun then winds turn south easterly monday edit.. Just seen gav's post Edited July 18, 2013 by Skeggy summer

[Summer Sun]

ECM at t120

 

 

UKMO at t120

 

 

I can't see where the 2 are in agreement there

High pressure is still hanging on at t144 on ECM remaining hot as well the further north you are the drier it should be as pressure will be highest here

 

 

All this talk of a breakdown makes me laugh as ECM continues to say no

Edited July 18, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

All this breakdown talk is still making me chuckle, amazing that people are ignoring some of the hottest weather we've had for a long time which is on the cards for next week. The ECM is a belting run for heat lovers, and those who are claiming a breakdown is certain for midweek should have waited for the ECM as it's been the most accurate during this spell.

 

All I can say is, if you're looking for heat, ignore the naysayers as next week is going to be a real treat!

[Milhouse]

How long is the cool/low cloud blip gna be here in east is it just sat and sun then winds turn south easterly monday

 

Looking at the charts i dont see the east coast fairing particularly well with cooler temperatures and more cloud likely to persist into next week. In the 1976 heatwave records for Spurn Point 40 miles north along the coast from you have temperatures of 20/21c with a similar looking wind off the sea. Which is still warm however.

[TEITS]

Temps widely between 30-32C on the ECM +144 chart and possibly as high as 34C in a few favoured locations i.e Heathrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM looking rock solid at 144h with HP still in charge and extremely hot air covering the British isles.

Temps widely between 30-32C on the ECM +144 chart and possibly as high as 34C in a few favoured locations i.e Heathrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Its going to go out with a very large bang TEITS

[draztik]

Ukmo seems to be too progressive with its output, as the ecm seems to be in agreement, more or less, with the gsf. The only thing that seems assured is that a breakdown is now firmly planted.

Edited July 18, 2013 by draztik

[shaky]

The ecm 12z is a beauty of a run so far!!things look like gettin extremely hot across england and wales from sunday onwards if u go according to the ecm!!it makes less of the little low in the biscay area aswell which means most places will be sunny and hot!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Ukmo seems to be too progressive with its output, as the ecm seems to be in agreement, more or less, with the gsf. The only thing that seems assured is that a breakdown is now firmly planted.

Only thing that will be having a breakdown is my fan when it conks out...

[Milhouse]

I recall a few weeks ago making similarities with 1976 which turned out to be rather foolish at the time as the arrival of the warmth was put back and downgraded. There are similarities showing up for next week however looking at the ECM.

 

.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thursday looks hot again with thundery rain spreading north during the later stages of the day

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ecm is hot hot hot hot this evening but that trough to the Sw might well be the pattern changer.

The heat is here for another 7 days if ecm is correct thats for sure!!

[legritter]

In about an hours time moods will change ,as i said earlier just going by modells and data we could see 34/36 somewhere next week and humidity on the increase but IF a breakdown proper does arrive at this point it would be hard at this stage to name any date .we need to keep this brilliant forum free from fisty cuffs as we are in my opinion the best there is in the northern hemisphere ,but on a personal levell i think next week holds some very interesting weather ,and certainly things could get hot on this forum ,bring it on .

[rmc1987]

Just out of interest what sort of uppers do you did over the UAE? Is there a sure where I can see charts like here without cost?

Sorry to be off topic.

Edited July 18, 2013 by rmc1987

[Captain Shortwave]

Trough stalls to our south as the Azores high fights back

Uppers still 10-14C so still very warm or hot in places

Still there Saturday

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Ah, I see - one model shows a breakdown occurring around the 24th, and that means it will happen, and the other models should be completely disregarded. To my eye, both ECM and GFS look warm to very warm, perhaps hot, beyond Wednesday, retaining warm uppers and high 2m temperatures, and only UKMO shows the possibility of a breakdown, which may not even be a breakdown, but a blip in the current weather, and even then, 850mb temperatures are still above 12C for all Great Britain, and it is still dry, with no rain at all bar isolated showers, so I wouldn't expect temperatures to be below average, cool compared to recently perhaps, but not cold by any means.

 

 

Perhaps you need to start looking at the models objectively - the breakdown will occur, that is a fact, but it is not a 'fact' that it will occur on any given date. You cannot say that - it is very foolish to make such a statement when you simply don't know - none of us do. ECM is rolling out now, so let's see what it thinks.

Yep,comments like 'facts the breakdown is coming tues/wed just leave posters looking a bit silly,to put it mildly!!

[Man With Beard]

 

So ECM tonight does not lead to a breakdown - just a thundery spell in the south Wed-Fri - but hot and possibly dry again Saturday

[Captain Shortwave]

Final frame shows the onset of a developing north/south split. Most of the UK is still in very warm air

JMA brings some thundery rain to southern areas perhaps next Friday

 

No other model suggests a breakdown earlier than Thursday. So the UKMO is very much on it's own.

Edited July 18, 2013 by Captain shortwave