Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Hot?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

DTHFCJ Aficionado

DTHFCJ

Posted
  • Location: south wales uk
  • Weather Preferences: hot and sunny
  • Location: south wales uk
Posted

Look at Heathrow.... 38 degrees is on there!!!! Incredible!!

 

 

Ashford, Surrey showing 38c!

tbh its the first time i have ever seen those sort of temps on the bbc website...records to be smashed??..who knows......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Hahahahaha

just reportin what the models show :) earlier they showed the entire UK under a cooler flow. And even on this GFS run, the temps would be lower than what we are currently experiencing. Plenty good for me. I do not want excessive heat, 24C and im happy. And currently, that's what we may end up getting Goodbye 30+ :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Look at Heathrow.... 38 degrees is on there!!!! Incredible!!

Even 33 degrees is shown for Leeds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Look at Heathrow.... 38 degrees is on there!!!! Incredible!!

I remember back in 2003 when looking at the BBC teletext outlook seeing 38C and thought it was a error. At that time I didn't think temps that high were possible in the UK. As we all know they are!

 

Must admit I have mixed feelings about next week. Having max temps around the mid 30s is perfectly okay if I was lying on a beach in Ibiza with a few bottles of Stella and being surrounded by lovely women in bikinis. However being stuck in a city isn't as appealing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

just reportin what the models show Posted Image earlier they showed the entire UK under a cooler flow. And even on this GFS run, the temps would be lower than what we are currently experiencing. Plenty good for me. I do not want excessive heat, 24C and im happy. And currently, that's what we may end up getting Goodbye 30+ Posted Image

your always looking for the breakdown, too bad its in FI pal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

just reportin what the models show Posted Image earlier they showed the entire UK under a cooler flow. And even on this GFS run, the temps would be lower than what we are currently experiencing. Plenty good for me. I do not want excessive heat, 24C and im happy. And currently, that's what we may end up getting Goodbye 30+ Posted Image

Excessive heat is what we could be seeing though my friend, face it! Its getting more evident run by run, them mid 90's are closing in

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

Well the cut off low to our SW developing is pretty much nailed on, its existence puts us in the extreme heat raffle. Where it goes of course will determine how long and how hot the heatwave will be. Also a mention to the trough to our east which also has a vital role on the development from this weekend onwards. The shallower the trough and the quicker it moves south east out of harms way, the better the weather will become as winds will be south easterly rather than north easterly. 

The 18z is an awesome run with a slack south easterly developing bringing widespread temperatures of 30-32 degrees, given that surely 33-35 must be possible in favoured spots. Also the risk of low cloud would be reduced to occasional sea fog along north eastern coasts which would probably be restricted to the beaches during the day. 

Ens show a more ESE direction to the flow from Sunday onwards.

Edited by Captain shortwave
Link to comment
Share on other sites
nitro_deluxe Contributor

nitro_deluxe

Posted
Posted · Hidden by nitro_deluxe, July 16, 2013 - Oftopic
Hidden by nitro_deluxe, July 16, 2013 - Oftopic

your always looking for the breakdown, too bad its in FI pal.

Yes. To think not long ago I had a lecture re unbiased model chat lol..and I'm no expert!

your always looking for the breakdown, too bad its in FI pal.

Link to comment
reef Veteran

reef

Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
Posted

A polite request to keep it on topic in here, this thread is to discuss the models. There are other threads elsewhere to discuss the current spell:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77187-settled-spell-discussion-and-temperature-reports-july-2013/

 

and summer as a whole:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76293-summer-2013/

 

As in winter, now its getting a little busier in here please think if you're being on-topic before you hit the post button.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
WheresTheSnow Apprentice

WheresTheSnow

Posted
  • Location: Hemel
  • Location: Hemel
Posted (edited)

If temperatures reach mid 30's during the day, what is the nightime low going to be - something like 25C!? Wow, next weeks prospects look extreme, and I like it.

 

Posted Image

+15 uppers nearly over half of the UK @ 147!!

Posted Image

And is still there @ 192, of which is at the end of high res...

 

Lets see if this trend continues, another week to go yet.

Edited by WheresTheSnow
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jimmy0127 Apprentice

Jimmy0127

Posted
  • Location: SW London
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: SW London
Posted (edited)

Enclosed - record verified vs ECM 240. Just for fun.


 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 


 

Edited by Jimmy0127
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

Oh wow, thats a hot GFS 18z where 34C is well possible in the south if the GFS was proven correct!

Posted ImagePosted Image

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Insane GFS for next week. 30-35c widely in the Midlands and South!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

gfs 0z showing major downgrade, and though still in fi, there is now a clear trend towards cooler temps, with moderate rainfall edging in by next week. Gfs now been relatively consistent, and one can now assume a breakdown will soon be in motion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

A 'major downgrade' in relation to the fairly sky-high charts we saw yesterday. I still see widespread 29-30C right until the end of the high-res run. Still see no concrete evidence for a breakdown - still way at the end of the run in FI.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

No major breakdown in the reliable time frame and the thundery breakdown is well out in deep fi. I wouldn't be surprised if this hot dry spell managed to last all the way to the end of the month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
William of Walworth Contributor

William of Walworth

Posted
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
  • Location: Formerly Walworth, SE17 ; Swansea SA1 since Dec 2008
Posted

gfs 0z showing major downgrade, and though still in fi, there is now a clear trend towards cooler temps, with moderate rainfall edging in by next week. Gfs now been relatively consistent, and one can now assume a breakdown will soon be in motion.

No, one can't 'assume' anything.

 

Any 'breakdown' would be well into FI, and very far from certain IMO. Please at least try to be objective about the various model output, thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)

Cut off lows are very difficult to model correctly - winter watchers will know they can even disappear altogether at T72. GFS this morning is actually very similar to last night in Hi-res but small changes are going to affect how hot it gets

Edited by rjbw
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

UKMO is a head scratcher this morning

Posted Image

Completely bins the idea of the cut off low to our south west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted

Daft question, when was the last time we had a cold winter, cool spring and a very hot summer?

 

1983  i think was the closest that fits that description...  other hot summers usually start before the end of june, 83 didnt and neither did this one.

 

. Frankly I can't see why so many people crave temps in excess of 30c,

 

personal taste mate... besides its rare to get widespread 30c+ in this country, extremes are interesting (and usually uncomfortable!)

 

 

 

If this turns out to be a '76 you heat lovers better let us cold lovers enjoy a '62/'63 winter if it comes along!

 

Posted Imagecfs-4-2-2014.png

 

youve had 2 record breaking cold spells since we last had a hot spell, (dec 10, this march), with plenty of snow/freezes in between... us heat lovers have waited 7 years for this! Posted Image

 

the heat looks set to intensify slowly into next week, as does humidity and thunder potential. the ecm doesnt really give such a clear cut breakdown that the gfs still suggests. one thing to note however.... the gfs has been consistent (ok in fi) that the atlantic will take over after a breakdown... atm theres no re-load suggested (but the breakdown isnt nailed either), so lets just enjoy what weve had/will get, when its over, it might well be over (and we get a benign august like we did in 06).post-2797-0-69021400-1374041217_thumb.pn

another chart run showing no re-load of the heat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

A 'major downgrade' in relation to the fairly sky-high charts we saw yesterday. I still see widespread 29-30C right until the end of the high-res run. Still see no concrete evidence for a breakdown - still way at the end of the run in FI.

 

A major downgrade from what? It was the ECM that was showing the real heat and it hasn't fully updated yet!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

ECM looks ok with respect to this cut off low

Posted Image

Posted Image

 

Major disagreement between the models at such a short timeframe. One would say the UKMO might have been a rogue run for now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted

ECM looks ok with respect to this cut off low

 

 

Major disagreement between the models at such a short timeframe. One would say the UKMO might have been a rogue run for now.

 

Yes it almost seems like that run from the UKMO has come from no where, ECM and GFS are still showing the cut off low this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...