Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[Frosty.]

On the other hand, it could go: phut!

There is always a chance but if there is a cold front pushing into the very hot and muggy air further east, I don't think it would be a damp squib, a line of severe thunderstorms is more likely I would think, and storms pushing up from the continent could add to the potent mix on friday, into friday night and saturday.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Cannot believe we are seeing signs of another potential potent plume on the cards! Wouldn't take these charts for granted just yet, but if the signs are there, which they are, then this really is unreal. Moreover, if we see that alignment tilted a fraction more S-N or even just a bit more SSE orientated, then we could tap into the 20c isotherm and perhaps reach 35c. Probably won't happen, but you never quite know the way this summer is going!

What an exceptional turnaround this has been from last year. this summer sticks a big insulting middle finger up at 2012, as I'm sure many other summers will do too!

[Methuselah]

There is always a chance but if there is a cold front pushing into the very hot and muggy air further east, I don't think it would be a damp squib, a line of severe thunderstorms is more likely I would think, and storms pushing up from the continent could add to the potent mix on friday, into friday night and saturday.

Isn't that what happened last night? 

[Captain Shortwave]

I see that's why, could there be any chance for hotter temps to spread further south

Lighter winds most likely, the GFS does sometimes overdo onshore wind moderation of temperatures so they might get higher.

[Frosty.]

Hi Frosty.

 

Any chance of this the heatwave lasting 3 days in Surrey, i.e. until Sat evening, as big party planned outdoors. Would appreciated your take on the chances of this coming off.

Hi Mini tiger, definately thursday and friday with temps of 30-32 celsius but I think saturday will be nearer 25c with lower humidity but warm enough for your party i'm sure, the storm front should have cleared through on friday night so saturday could be fine with sunny spells and just a risk of a few showers.

Edited July 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Lincstim]

So again I'm keeping a close eye on you knowledgable people to see what happen next week especially the weekend in north lincs for the music festival! If I've got this right am I correct in thinking that if this hot weather does arrive then this could produce heavy thunder /rain?

Is this plume the best option for the chance to have a better weather day for Saturday 3rd day/night!?

It's amazing how hard it is to predict the weather for the UK.

Hats of to you weathermen oh and women

[Milhouse]

Next weekends charts dont look to dissimilar to that of today so sunny spells and showers isnt a bad prediction at the moment. Sunday is looking slightly the drier of the 2 days.

[cheese]

This plume will carry a moderate Southerly breeze so highest temperatures are likely to be directly north of the capitol, somewhere like Cambridge will be where the plume maxes out.

GFS temperature chart shows this well with Cambridgeshire being the hotspot

Ah, yes, the fabled southerly - probably the hottest wind direction for us in Yorkshire too since it has hundreds of miles of land to travel over.

Edited July 28, 2013 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

GFS still points to another hot spell later this week

 

 

Low to mid 20's in the east on Saturday

 

 

Mid 20's for the parts of the south and SE on Sunday

 

Edited July 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

UKMO and GFS going for drier conditions to move up from the south at the weekend

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not much to say really, Warm and showery tomorrow, cooler with rain in the south Tuesday, Rain pushing north Wednesday bringing warmer conditions. Thursday and Friday look hot especially Central and Eastern areas. Breakdown Friday night, weekend pleasant with just a few showers. That's what the GFS and UKMO show.

GEM is throwing the scandi high yet again but again the breakdown would be on Saturday and then you end up with a similar set up to the week just gone.

[ANYWEATHER]

Not much to say really, Warm and showery tomorrow, cooler with rain in the south Tuesday, Rain pushing north Wednesday bringing warmer conditions. Thursday and Friday look hot especially Central and Eastern areas. Breakdown Friday night, weekend pleasant with just a few showers. That's what the GFS and UKMO show.

GEM is throwing the scandi high yet again but again the breakdown would be on Saturday and then you end up with a similar set up to the week just gone.

Tbh, the devil will be in the detail this week. Its a complicated set-up, so nothing is clear cut! 

[Frosty.]

Another injection of heat & humidity later in the week according to the experts and the Gfs 12z operational run, thursday and friday look scorchers across the southeastern half of england and very warm in other areas, temperatures could top 90 F again, probably on friday which looks like being the peak of the hot plume, a cold front then pushing east with a fresher weekend but still rather warm, especially in the southeast where pressure looks like rising from the southeast with next sunday the driest and sunniest day across southeastern uk. It's not a settled picture though by any means, there will be some heavy showers around with thunder at times but tending to dry up more towards the southeast through the week ahead, an active warm front pushing north during midweek will herald a marked change in airmass from atlantic to a hot and sultry continental S'ly to SE'ly and a growing risk of scattered storms developing and some being imported from northern france, there is a lot to keep an eye on during the next 7 days with more twists in this exceptional summer.

[Mini tiger]

When is the 12z ECM due out ? Is it running late ?

[Captain Shortwave]

I would say bank to the ECM

 

Hot Thursday to Saturday especially in the South East, followed by a potentially epic breakdown then followed by.........

 

Azores high builds behind

ECM completely loses the plot after day 7 so I feel little can be gained from the latter frames

Edited July 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mini tiger]

I would say bank to the ECM

 

Hot Thursday to Saturday especially in the South East, followed by a potentially epic breakdown then followed by.........

 

Azores high builds behind

 

 

This is what great summers are made from. If that Azores High extension verifies in a weeks time, we could be looking at a further week of fine summery weather

from Mon 5th. With temps in the south and SE typically around 26 to 28oC by day with mild to warm nights. The AzH extension is supported by a further AzH cell in situ

all we need is pressure to rise over Scandi and this pattern could lock in and potentially give us a cracking first half of August for summer lovers. Very little evidence this evening to support a cool atlantic regime following the heat plume this week.

[ANYWEATHER]

When is the 12z ECM due out ? Is it running late ?

perhaps it might be on the ecm chartviewer!!

[draztik]

This is what great summers are made from. If that Azores High extension verifies in a weeks time, we could be looking at a further week of fine summery weather

from Mon 5th. With temps in the south and SE typically around 26 to 28oC by day with mild to warm nights. The AzH extension is supported by a further AzH cell in situ

all we need is pressure to rise over Scandi and this pattern could lock in and potentially give us a cracking first half of August for summer lovers. Very little evidence this evening to support a cool atlantic regime following the heat plume this week.

really?

[Man With Beard]

I would say bank to the ECM

 

Hot Thursday to Saturday especially in the South East, followed by a potentially epic breakdown then followed by.........

 

Azores high builds behind

ECM completely loses the plot after day 7 so I feel little can be gained from the latter frames

ECM produces yet another scenario for the weekend, this time bringing 20C 850s back towards the east for Saturday. No support for this elsewhere though - GEM and JMA do keep hotter air over UK on Saturday though ... signs of a stalling front, yet again??? 

Thursday/Friday's plume looks pretty much nailed on now, virtually all op runs and GFS ensemble members see 850s over 18C in the south-east and over 15C in central/eastern areas generally. Likely to trigger some more thunderstorms, especially on Friday.

Sunday onwards - still a little uncertain but the trend is for a north/south split with the north changeable and the south fairly warm and settled with rising pressure

[Mini tiger]

really?

 

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM produces yet another scenario for the weekend, this time bringing 20C 850s back towards the east for Saturday. No support for this elsewhere though - GEM and JMA do keep hotter air over UK on Saturday though ... signs of a stalling front, yet again??? 

Thursday/Friday's plume looks pretty much nailed on now, virtually all op runs and GFS ensemble members see 850s over 18C in the south-east and over 15C in central/eastern areas generally. Likely to trigger some more thunderstorms, especially on Friday.

Sunday onwards - still a little uncertain but the trend is for a north/south split with the north changeable and the south fairly warm and settled with rising pressure

I think the weekend is very uncertain. Very odd to see arguably the best performing model churning out different scenarios each time. Makes you wonder whether the GFS/UKMO are missing something and idly throwing out the same solution each time which will soon be incorrect or ECM is having a really bad spell of form and is over reacting to every single signal. GEM is being pretty consistent about a more robust high pressure cell to the East/North East, whilst not being the best model it might as well be considered for the time being as the ECM tonight is not too far off up to day 6.

In short - no idea where we go after Friday.

[Milhouse]

really?

 

Those are fairly average uppers for this time of year. In dry conditions which the ECM shows at T+168 it would lead to temperatures around the seasonal average 20-23c.

[Milhouse]

Friday joining Thursday in being a hot day for SE England.

 

Edited July 28, 2013 by Milhouse

[J10]

Interesting to see a North Easterly in later frames of the ECM.

 

Should introduce more settled conditions.

 

Tentative signs as well of the GFS doing the same after the plume.

[ANYWEATHER]

Well at the of the day the models are predicting  a turn to cooler fresher conditions next week...