Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[shedhead]

a brief return, would have been a more accurate way of describing it. Please, don't get ahead of yourself. The models show this to be rather brief. If we listened to you and frosty, we'd be forgiven for thinking we were about to head into round 2 of the heatwave! No!

Very much so. The reality is this is a fairly average 10-14 days ahead overall, which will be punctuated by a brief warm/very warm spell for many and a hot spell for some later this week.

 

Nothing that I've currently seen suggests we're guaranteed a repeat plume next week; now of course things could change, but that could just as easily be for the worst as the better.

Edited July 28, 2013 by shedhead

[Captain Shortwave]

a brief return, would have been a more accurate way of describing it. Please, don't get ahead of yourself. The models show this to be rather brief. If we listened to you and frosty, we'd be forgiven for thinking we were about to head into round 2 of the heatwave! No!

He was commenting on the BBCs week ahead forecast where that analysis is entirely correct (up to this Friday)

This chunk of posts should probably be moved to it's relevant thread.

Edited July 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

For those asking earlier the BBC weather for the week ahead can now be found here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2755451

 

Rain at times

 

Some sunshine

 

Warming up in the south

[Frosty.]

For those asking earlier the BBC weather for the week ahead can now be found here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2755451

 

Rain at times

 

Some sunshine

 

Warming up in the south

It's typically being underplayed again like the last time, I expect them to pump up the heat over the coming days for the second half of the week as before, although the longevity looks rather brief, it could be a more intense plume than last time, shorter and sharper.

[Man With Beard]

Very much so. The reality is this is a fairly average 10-14 days ahead overall, which will be punctuated by a brief warm/very warm spell for many and a hot spell for some later this week.Nothing that I've currently seen suggests we're guaranteed a repeat plume next week; now of course things could change, but that could just as easily be for the worst as the better.

Models beyond day 7 a bit of a scattergun right now - ensemble means may be fairly average but IMO that's because all kinds of extremes are being shown as possible - another plume definitely an option as troughing to the west could remain in situ

[Frosty.]

In my opinion, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is rather good, it shows the majority of the uk hotting up during the second half of the week and the heat is reluctant to clear away from the southeast and warmer uppers remain very close to the southeast throughout, elsewhere, temperatures eventually drift back down to average or slightly above so it would still feel warm everywhere despite the lower 850's. This run indicates a warm and humid outlook with heavy, slow moving thundery showers and sunny periods with generally light winds, a very slack continental lite type weather pattern persisting well into august. I think the heat later next week will be sufficient to see temperatures again into the high 20's to low 30's celsius for at least the southeastern half of england and becoming very warm in other areas too for a few days at least. So, a slow start to the week, temperature wise and then a steep upward curve for thursday and peaking on friday along with a threat of storms during this period, still warm next weekend despite lowering uppers, surface conditions warm enough for many with mid 20's celsius.

[shedhead]

Models beyond day 7 a bit of a scattergun right now - ensemble means may be fairly average but IMO that's because all kinds of extremes are being shown as possible - another plume definitely an option as troughing to the west could remain in situ

That is why I said 'Nothing that I've currently seen suggests we're guaranteed a repeat plume next week' but I certainly don't think it can be ruled out completely either.  Will be interesting to see where the next few runs want to take the low that is set to introduce the brief plume later this week, they may start to stall it and even edge it south. However for the time being NE still looks the right call and that will allow cooler, fresher weather to push east across all parts of the UK.

 

Edit: A far more realistic post there Frosty imo.

Edited July 28, 2013 by shedhead

[damianslaw]

Strong signals from the models of another pulse of heat moving into the country off the near continent come Thursday - thanks to a warm front moving up from France. Maxes into the low 30's look very probable for favoured SE spots and London with widespread high 20's maxima again for much of central/eastern england. However, this will not be the start of another lengthy very warm dry sunny spell, we are in very different territory to where we were 3/4 weeks ago, instead we are in classic plume territory, and now is the optimum time of year to see the warmest conditions of the season as the continent is on average at its warmest by early August.

 

So a very interesting week ahead weatherwise, lots of activity in the form of heavy thundery downpours and heat and humidity. How different this summer feels to the last six.

[Polar Maritime]

That is why I said 'Nothing that I've currently seen suggests we're guaranteed a repeat plume next week' but I certainly don't think it can be ruled out completely either.  Will be interesting to see where the next few runs want to take the low that is set to introduce the brief plume later this week, they may start to stall it and even edge it south. However for the time being NE still looks the right call and that will allow cooler, fresher weather to push east across all parts of the UK.

 

Edit: A far more realistic post there Frosty imo.

 

Sorry Shed, but all Frosty's post's clearly explain what the models are showing. Which set's a good standard on this thread.

Edited July 28, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

Any chance of arresting the arrested development that has dogged this thread so far today? I'm sure that you are all grown-up enough to disagree with one another, without acting like young children...It's all getting a bit tedious. And, anyway, nobody has a monopoly on even-handedness?

[Frosty.]

Darren Bett just said 30 celsius later in the week, better than the 25c the countryfile forecast showed then!

 

I think the 6z will be pretty close to the truth later in the week.

Bring on the heat..again.

[Summer Sun]

If things follow on from the 06z the met office will be issuing heatwave alerts again this week with temperature around 30c by day in the south east and lows of around 20c overnight

 

 

 

[Methuselah]

I'm sure that there'll be quite few thunderstorm warning, if the models carry on along the same lines as today's GFS...

[JK1]

only 27c for southern areas on that map not really hot tempatures just very warm..

Edited July 28, 2013 by JK1

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm sure that there'll be quite few thunderstorm warning, if the models carry on along the same lines as today's GFS...

Look at the CAPE over in Belgium, I already smell daylight robbery again 

[Frosty.]

I'm sure that there'll be quite few thunderstorm warning, if the models carry on along the same lines as today's GFS...

Agreed, when the cold front pushing in from the west hits that wall of heat and humidity across central, southern and eastern areas on friday, there will be FIREWORKS  

Edited July 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Barry12]

only 27c for southern areas on that map not really hot tempatures just very warm..

 

30C for London on Thursday

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

[JK1]

30C for London on Thursday

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

i'm talking about areas further south of london

[Barry12]

Agreed, when the cold front pushing in from the west hits that wall of heat and humidity across central, southern and eastern areas on friday, there will be FIREWORKS  

 

Didn't know that created 'fireworks'?

[Frosty.]

30C for London on Thursday

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743

It will be even hotter and more humid on friday if the cold front stays out to the west, the peak of the  hot plume could be quite an intense event during friday.

 

 

Edited July 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Frosty.]

Didn't know that created 'fireworks'?

It's the best I could do, friday looks explosive indeed.

[Captain Shortwave]

only 27c for southern areas on that map not really hot tempatures just very warm..

This plume will carry a moderate Southerly breeze so highest temperatures are likely to be directly north of the capitol, somewhere like Cambridge will be where the plume maxes out.

GFS temperature chart shows this well with Cambridgeshire being the hotspot

[Methuselah]

It's the best I could do, friday looks explosive indeed.

On the other hand, it could go: phut!

[JK1]

This plume will carry a moderate Southerly breeze so highest temperatures are likely to be directly north of the capitol, somewhere like Cambridge will be where the plume maxes out.

GFS temperature chart shows this well with Cambridgeshire being the hotspot

I see that's why, could there be any chance for hotter temps to spread further south

[Mini tiger]

Darren Bett just said 30 celsius later in the week, better than the 25c the countryfile forecast showed then!

 

I think the 6z will be pretty close to the truth later in the week.

Bring on the heat..again.

Hi Frosty.

 

Any chance of this the heatwave lasting 3 days in Surrey, i.e. until Sat evening, as big party planned outdoors. Would appreciated your take on the chances of this coming off.