South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd July 2013 onwards

[Ruthie]

Thunder has stopped as far as I can tell. Rain is still heavy ish though. Just lost a few slates off the roof! Didnt half jump outta my skin when that landed on patio.

[Tom Jarvis]

No the line behind the main one is dying

[Neilsouth]

Don't storms usually die off about midday then kick off again later? Seems to have been a theme through stormy events of these last years

[capt.snowman]

Amazing to be almost stuck in the middle of all of this and we have not yet even had a single drop of rain! Crazy stuff.

[Coast]

Amazing to be almost stuck in the middle of all of this and we have not yet even had a single drop of rain! Crazy stuff.

 

Same here, we have the storm shield set to max obviously!

[Tom Montalbano]

Don't storms usually die off about midday then kick off again later? Seems to have been a theme through stormy events of these last years

 

I remember reading an article about this, in general, thunder tends to be not so prevalent during the late morning/noon period.

 

Just waved my daughter off to work and can see the anvil responsible for the W/SW London thunder, to NW here in Chislehurst.

 

Poor lass is coming down with a cold and was actually shivering last night, even with a duvet on. 

 

Tom.

[Methuselah]

Thunder here in the Triange!!!       

[ITSY]

was up for an hour between 2 and 3 this morning, to the west of cambridge, it was incredible. I took a video which doesn't really do it justice (typical timing), but the lightning and thunder was over my house for ages. Hoping for some daylight repeats as this squall line makes its way east and north. Forecast seems to suggest that it will, or that if it doesn't, others will follow in its place for this afternoon and tonight. Here's hoping. 

[Mesoscale]

I think I'm unconsciously Jesus, that line of storms that was barrelling towards north west london area parted like the Sea of Galilee! before it was throwing out visible Cgs and now nothing but a bit of rain, envious of last night as I didn't get to partake in the fun.

[Tom Jarvis]

I swear storms hate me lol

[Bluebreezer54]

Short burst of rain arrived but the thunder seems to have stopped, anyone else in west London thinking the same? Radar has the heavy stuff right over me in W3.

 

I have to say that was quite dissapointing to be honest. 2 visible flashes of lightning, a few ( mostly distant ) rumbles and as you say, a short burst of rain. There it was......gone

[Snowangel-MK]

More thunder and a heavy shower of rain here....I'm just popping up to CMK shopping centre now and wondering how safe it will be to park in my usual place on the roof of Debenhams - I may or may not be back later, tata 

Edited July 23, 2013 by MKsnowangel

[Stamford Bobby]

I have to say that was quite dissapointing to be honest. 2 visible flashes of lightning, a few ( mostly distant ) rumbles and as you say, a short burst of rain. There it was......gone

 

Just had a few rumbles having said all that, still not what we were hoping for. Fingers crossed for this afternoon.

[Coast]

I have to say that was quite dissapointing to be honest. 2 visible flashes of lightning, a few ( mostly distant ) rumbles and as you say, a short burst of rain. There it was......gone

 

Mid afternoon might be more of a chance in your part of the World:

 

[Wet'n'Dry]

While we're waiting for round 2,

 

This was a single lightning strike from this morning around 3:30

 

It originated from the bottom left corner, possibly from a streamer, before stretching across to the right before turning back on itself before it turned night into day.

 

Shame about the streetlamp, but it serves to illustrate just how bright this was!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2013 by Wet'n'Dry

[Nick.F]

 It's a bloomin big triangle now - the whole of Norfolk. Ha ha. 'Scuse me whilst I go into the garden to chase the drizzle....

 Extend that down to NE Essex, not breached 30 degrees this spell, not been too humid, in fact rather pleasant but no extremes. Last night's storm passed by peripherally, saw a little lightning and heard thunder in the distance, a little rain.

 

Today it's grey and pleasantly warm, maybe one momentary glimmer of sun.

 

Only extreme is the dryness, with no useful rain for 3 weeks, no significant rain for much longer than that.

[VillagePlank]

GFS 6z out,

 

GooFuS has the SE corner dry for the entire afternoon,

 

 

But I don't believe a word of it! As the plume migrates south and east, it does it much faster in the mid-layer (approx 700hPa) leaving a dewpoint depression,

 

 

What this means for us, is that the atmosphere is pretty unstable. We're not talking of classic warm surface cold aloft, here, since that isn't necessarily unstable, and requires various triggers. What this sets up is dynamic instability due to differences in fluid (atmospheric) density where the heavier stuff must sink and the lighter stuff must rise. One presumes that even the lightest touch of insolation has the potential to kick things off.

 

As well as the nominal great atmospheric state we have convergence (kicking off about now),

 

 

Which adds up to a presumption that showers must form. And they are. On top of all that, we have had a trough go over the morning that created the fun in and around Heathrow/W London/SW London this morning. And given that we also have a cold front to come, and an occluding front after that to come,

 

 

things are pretty much looking up. Will the showers turn into thunderstorms? Well, I would say yes, according to the London Heathrow skew-t,

 

 

It looks to me as if that 1128 j/kg of CAPE will be utilised, and the CIN will easily be eroded by daytime heating.  And we can quietly be rather confident of this as not one run - yes, not one run - from the GEFS ensemble suite had rainfall this afternoon as less than 4.9mm, the average of the runs was 11.9mm, and the maximum of the runs was 23.9mm. And this is for 18z this evening.

 

 

Plenty more fun, I reckon, to come.

 

Happy Hunting

 

Edited July 23, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Methuselah]

First rainfall since I don't know when...

[Snowangel-MK]

Yellow Warning of Rain for London & South East England :

 

Bracknell Forest, Brighton and Hove, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Greater London, Hampshire, Isle of Wight, Kent, Medway, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Southampton, Surrey, West Berkshire, West Sussex, Windsor and Maidenhead & Wokingham

 

Yellow Warning of Rain for East of England :

 

Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Essex, Hertfordshire, Luton, Norfolk, Peterborough, Southend-on-Sea, Suffolk & Thurrock

 

Further thunderstorms and some longer spells of thundery rain will occur at times during the rest of today, with some torrential downpours in places.

 

The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption, particularly to travel, due to, for example, surface water flooding or lightning damage.

 

This is an update to the warning issued on Monday.

 

 

Issued at:

1114 on Tue 23 Jul 2013

 

Valid from:

1115 on Tue 23 Jul 2013

 

Valid to:

2359 on Tue 23 Jul 2013

 

Thunderstorms continue to move north across England and Scotland, with some very energetic storms producing frequent lightning. Large rainfall totals, falling in short periods (locally exceeding 50 mm in 3 hours) and onto hard-baked ground, will lead to flooding locally, with hail and gusty winds an additional risk.

 

As is common in such situations, not everywhere will catch the heaviest of the storms, and some places may well escape altogether.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=uk&from=rss&sn=A6607498-FB1E-63CD-D55D-FB9F0DAA0802_7_EE&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&fcTime=1374534000

[Bluebreezer54]

One thing that was noticeable was the temperature change. 26c just before the 'storm' arrived, dropped to 22c and now back up to 25c all within hour.

[chilly milly]

More thunder and a heavy shower of rain here....I'm just popping up to CMK shopping centre now and wondering how safe it will be to park in my usual place on the roof of Debenhams - I may or may not be back later, tata 

I am about to do the same thing and park at the top of the multi-storey because I can't bear it when someone parks next to me, if there are loads of spaces around.  Less chance of that on the top floor. We've just had a big crack of thunder, so something is rumbling around.

[Coast]

Temperatures building again now and dewpoints where already quite high, are staying high or increasing:

 

Humidity dropped but looks to rise again:

 

[Marie]

Hi guys ,it's blooming hot here ,weather station saying 27 .I really hope we see a storm cos something has to give .

[Summer of 76]

Thunder heard and rain falling

[ITSY]

meto expecting heavier and more torrential thundery rain later on this afternoon, between 3 and 6 is my best guess, after the heat of the day. For the time being, it looks as though that squall line will break into drizzly rain just in time for MBY