South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Wet'n'Dry]

Something odd developing here, note the circular layered top!

 

[nanu]

so is that it for us down here.. thought today was gonna be quite spectacular, but was rather quiet

[Tom Montalbano]

We can hope, it's where the two airmasses hit and theoretically where the storms should kick off. In the end we will need to rely on storms over in France which unfortunately have a habit of missing to the east in recent years

 

 

What's seems to have happened in recent years is that when a thundery breakdown from the S/SW looked likely, a rise of pressure has occurred over the Bay of Biscay/W.France, which has suppressed convection just west of the meridian, over France and any storms/MCS have tended to form around the meridian and then tracked NE/NNE and they have finished up over NE France/Belgium, in general.

 

Although not such a dramatic rise in pressure on this occassion, it's still evident on the FAX chart for 6 a.m tomorrow.

 

I find for any French storms/MCS to affect the London area for example, cells need to initiate west of the meridian, say no further east than the Cherbourg Pen. and then are likely to drift NNE/NE towards our region, any initiation further east will probably result in storms ending their journey in the areas mentioned in my first paragraph.

 

Tom.

[nanu]

clear blue sky about to come over me now.. so should be a nice evening 

[crazy_diamond]

Well I've tried very hard to make it rain here today and failed.I've painted the shed door, washed the car, put washing out to dry and watered the garden-twice. All I've had is a dark cloud pass over.After having been up half the night watching distant lightening and listening to distant thunder I feel miffed.

Well, we have one last resort, let's all go and water our gardens! CDDer, pays to read a post more carefully than I just have! Oops!CD Edited July 23, 2013 by crazy_diamond

[andreas]

clear blue sky about to come over me now.. so should be a nice evening 

I hope so - but three miles to southwest, sky is completely overcast and some light rain has just started!

[Captain Shortwave]

What's seems to have happened in recent years is that when a thundery breakdown from the S/SW looked likely, a rise of pressure has occurred over the Bay of Biscay/W.France, which has suppressed convection just west of the meridian, over France and any storms/MCS have tended to form around the meridian and then tracked NE/NNE and they have finished up over NE France/Belgium, in general.

 

Although not such a dramatic rise in pressure on this occassion, it's still evident on the FAX chart for 6 a.m tomorrow.

 

I find for any French storms/MCS to affect the London area for example, cells need to initiate west of the meridian, say no further east than the Cherbourg Pen. and then are likely to drift NNE/NE towards our region, any initiation further east will probably result in storms ending their journey in the areas mentioned in my first paragraph.

 

Tom.

Great explanation, thanks 

One comforting fact today is that whilst we did not get the storms, it was sunnier and warmer than expected. 

[Jax]

OMG!

 

Just back from out paying some bills and heard some distant rumbles, they are getting less distant!

 

That is the fourth storm here in under 24 hours.

[Tom Montalbano]

Best illustrated on the latest satellite run, that nothing much is happening west of the meridian over France. All the action is happening further east. One area of note though is the area of cloud running SSW from Cherbourg down into the Bay of Biscay (an occluding front), its possible something could develop there but with a slight rise of pressure expected, any storm initiation could be suppressed.

 

 

Tom.

 

P.s. Best chance for some storms this evening, could be homegrown stuff, which seems to be kicking off now!

Edited July 23, 2013 by TomBR7

[JMTD]

Best illustrated on the latest satellite runs, that nothing much is happening west of the meridian over France. All the action is happening further east. One area of note though is the area of cloud running SSW from Cherbourg down into the Bay of Biscay (an occluding front), its possible something could develop there but with a slight rise of pressure expected, any storm initiation could be suppressed.

 

 

Tom.

 

P.s. Best chance for some storms this evening, could be homegrown stuff, which seems to be kicking off now!

 

Wouldn't expect to see anything from France or anywhere coming in. It'll all be homegrown and it'll be a matter of time before it all explodes. More than likely earlier than it did yesterday. Just a matter of time before it starts kicking off IMO. Might even see a line develope like last night. Just hoping by some miracle we manage to avoid it, but I'd expect we'll see the worst of it again and be smack bang in the middle of the mayhem.

[loopydreamer]

Radar looks livelier to me. Keeping an eye on that stuff in the channel.It looks like it's gradually gaining in intensity as it comes toward us .

[Mesoscale]

I think I will give up this 'hobbie/torture' and find myself a new one something that can be garanteed, stamp collecting maybe? lol

[Tom Montalbano]

Wouldn't expect to see anything from France or anywhere coming in. It'll all be homegrown and it'll be a matter of time before it all explodes. More than likely earlier than it did yesterday. Just a matter of time before it starts kicking off IMO. Might even see a line develope like last night. Just hoping by some miracle we manage to avoid it, but I'd expect we'll see the worst of it again and be smack bang in the middle of the mayhem.

 

Hi JMTD,

 

I think your line may well be forming now, aided by some lift over the Chilterns/Downs and no doubt, Londons' heat island effect.

 

Tom.

[VillagePlank]

Radar looks livelier to me. Keeping an eye on that stuff in the channel.It looks like it's gradually gaining in intensity as it comes toward us .

 

Yes, and ahead of it, it seems some homegrown activity, too, especially around Canterbury. There is a homogenous lump that is just about to make landfall around Hastings which has our name on it. Hopefully, it should pep up as it makes landfall. It has no sferics as yet, though ... and satellite IR doesn't show it to be large cellular stuff, unfortunately.

Edited July 23, 2013 by Sparkicle

[Wet'n'Dry]

Looks like a squall line forming stretching NNW from Brighton, dragging moist air up from the channel on its eastern flank.

Edited July 23, 2013 by Wet'n'Dry

[SHM040519]

Just had a torrential downpour in Canterbury!

[anything-but]

Muggy as hell in Greenhithe and clouding over good n proper.

[Jax]

Well that storm grazed us and is now moving away.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Any thoughts as to whether the cell making landfall on the Kent/East Sussex coast will stay lively as far north as my neck of the woods?

[Anvils in the Sky]

Clouding over markedly here too. Still pretty warm (24.6°) out there though. And feels as humid as anything. Looking at the sky to the SW, if I were in somewhere like Italy, France or Spain, I'd say "Batten down the hatches. A storm is a-brewin'." But as I'm in Kent, I'd be VERY nervous about making such a statement!

[Gowon]

Hopefully we'll get our first proper rainfall, it's been turning a lot darker outside in the last ten minutes...

[dubmuffin]

Evening all,

 

Been away for a while enjoying all this summer we've been having but now I'm on tenterhooks waiting for the storms, so I thought I'd drop by. It's all rather reminiscent of the winter snow watch (wait). Radar on contant refresh, watching all the weather forecasts and staring at the sky.

 

All we've managed in my small corner of the Croydon/Wallington/Purley borders is several very large drops, a possible light spinkling overnight and the hint of a shower just before I left work. All I want to know is who's stolen my thunder?

[Mesoscale]

Anyone west of the line forming from the SE to the NW I think thats it for us now.

[Tom Montalbano]

Raining here on the Kent/London border.

 

Tom.

[loopydreamer]

Any thunder around the coast?