South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 23rd July 2013 onwards

[dancing daisy]

How long is this rain hanging around for?

[Sainsbo]

Rain has picked up now, and it looks set to be that way here for quite a while yet. I'm just hoping that there's some thunder embedded into it.

[wimblettben]

Rains back to moderate now.

 

As others have said, only Kent clipper likely.

[MR EXTREMES]

rumble here

[island lad]

All I'm gonna get is steady rain. Every storm tracked locally just weakens. I think today is a right off. :-(

[MR EXTREMES]

All I'm gonna get is steady rain. Every storm tracked locally just weakens. I think today is a right off. :-(

still very humid though but I agree your little bit you posted up a couple of hours ago was very accurate indeed.

[island lad]

still very humid though but I agree your little bit you posted up a couple of hours ago was very accurate indeed.

Just keep using this thread for local updates. Very accurate so far.http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

[lettice]

Heavier rain now, no storm though

[Sainsbo]

Very heavy rain here now too, but not any signs of thunder.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Sout East stole it! The beasties!!

[Lyn-M]

Much lighter rain here now, hardly a breath of air, still feeling humid.  Will check total from this system around half nine.

[lettice]

Rain stopped now, 3 mm here for those few hours

[island lad]

And I thought snow was hard to predict. Really enjoyed developments on this thread guys but what a let down for the region. I keep looking at the sky thinking - how ??

[AWD]

And I thought snow was hard to predict. Really enjoyed developments on this thread guys but what a let down for the region. I keep looking at the sky thinking - how ??

Was always likely to be a South East event unfortunetly.A few unexpected rumbles and flashes around South Devon earlier, otherwise as expected, a dump of rain for most.Regional variances apply, as ever. Some have a bit, some have little, some have none.Better potential for something thundery for certain parts of the region tomorrow and Monday in the form of thundery showers. Edited July 27, 2013 by AWD

[island lad]

AWD your post's/predictions have been spot on so hats of to ya. Would have been nice if you made a complete hash of things though mate ;-)

[Andy Bown]

Whatever the outcomes for our region, I will treasure the feeling outside from 15.30 to 16.00 as the sky darkened rapidly from the W/SW and the humidity felt almost tropical in completely still air. Then a few drops of rain, a gust of wind, and sudden downpour of very large raindrops which I could actually hear approaching before it rained overhead!

[damo]

AWD your post's/predictions have been spot on so hats of to ya. Would have been nice if you made a complete hash of things though mate ;-)

agreed, spot on AWD. First post from me, I really enjoy reading this thread, keep it up guys!

[MR EXTREMES]

Well certainly new not cleared the air humidity still 83%

[galacticwarrior]

Looks like I missed tons of stuff while I was in London. Some flooded roads on the way.

Looking forward for EVEN BETTER prospects if there will be any!

Edited July 27, 2013 by galacticwarrior

[wimblettben]

We should probably be looking to tomorrow and Monday for anything thundery now as most of the rain is dying out and moving away from our region. There isn't much else forming over the channel so I'd say the heavy rain thats just passed is all we are going to get.

[AWD]

A quick one from me with regards to tomorrow's potential then. It's looking like a reasonably good convective day tomorrow, especially for areas so have had little rainfall so far.

There is a modest amount of CAPE across the South West and up into the West Country;

High Res WRF-NMM model also in agreement here;

Sheer and convergence also notable across the same areas;

Plenty of convective moisture in the air;

So I don't think there will be many issues with showers forming throughout the day. The high res WRF-NMM model showing the regions I think will be most at risk of scattered thundery showers tomorrow;

And also the GFS view of things pretty similiar;

If any strongest cells do manage to form, some hail is possible;

Vorticity is there too;

So all in all, a promising day for the following regions if you like your convection.

- Cornwall

- Devon

- Somerset

- Bristol area

- Gloucestershire

- West Wiltshire

If your more central southern based, ie Dorset, Hampshire and Berkshire, then the convective risk decreases here, and instead you could have more sunshine to enjoy.

I think Cornwall and Devon are the prime spots for some thundery activity tomorrow.

Here is a map below;

If you are in the red circle you are in the best location for convective and possibly thundery activity tomorrow. If you are in the orange circle, you also have a risk of thundery activity.

Areas outside these zones are going to be the quieter areas IMO.

Worth noting too that there are unlikely to be any severe thunderstorms tomorrow, with the term "thundery showers" more relevant I feel. Also, not every cell will be thundery, there will also be many rain showers around too.

Happy hunting!

[AWD]

Met Office invent model shows the risk of cell development across the South West and into the West Country tomorrow afternoon;

[wimblettben]

Met Office invent model shows the risk of cell development across the South West and into the West Country tomorrow afternoon;

image.jpgimage.jpg

 I would be getting a direct hit by those cells if that model were to come true.

[AWD]

I would be getting a direct hit by those cells if that model were to come true.

I wouldn't take it too literally, shower cell development is impossible to pinpoint to the mile.Use it as a broad theme of showers running W/SW to E/NE across the region.

[Lyn-M]

Final total, to half nine....29mm.  First day this year with a total over 25mm,