Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Harry]

Ben Rich focussing thunder risk on the SE tonight....am a bit concerned about the hail risk I must say going down to the coast!! Must mark out a tree I can put the car under if they come too close lol.

[Mark Parsons]

Where did you see this?

Infra red overlay on the V6 radar.

[Methuselah]

Where did you see this?

Long time no see, SB. How are you keeping these days?

 

There's a very high storm-potential methinks. But, as to who gets what, that's the problem - non one really knows.

[stainesbloke]

Wow, what a monster of a storm that is, dominating Belgium at the minute. Hide in your windmills you Dutchies and pray for your lives!! Tbh its times like this where I just wish us, Belgium and Holland were joined, then we could just simply get in the car and drive till we intercept those beasts. Now to keep an eye on that development in Biscay now, that could have our name on it this afternoon hopefully.

I just wish storms like that would actually hit the UK, just like they used to in the 70s/80s/90s! For some unexplainable reason they seem to actually swerve to avoid us these days lol. Will be most disappointed to just get rain later, though we do need it admittedly.

[Buckster]

by looking at last x radar returns and extrapolating - I think "best-case" (for storm lovers) - that bunch of storms will hit somewhere between IOW and Brighton - Eastwards

[Guest William Grimsley]

Just to burst people who live in the East's bubble, the clouds in the Bay of Biscay containing rain/thunder are heading straight for SW England instead of Central/SE England.

Edited July 27, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Buckster]

Just to burst people who live in the East's bubble, the clouds in the Bay of Biscay containing rain/thunder are heading straight for SW England instead of Central/SE England.

 

how did you come to that conclusion - I've just extrapolated the radar plots and furthest west IMO is IOW at absolute max

 

I did note 1 return which showed a bit of a more northern "jog" - but all the other returns show a much more of a somewhere between N-E and  N-N-E movement

Edited July 27, 2013 by Buckster

[Guest William Grimsley]

Looks as if the development coming out of Biscay is going to hit slightly more west than the last one maybe coming in to the IOW eastwards?

Correct.

how did you come to that conclusion - I've just extrapolated the radar plots and furthest west IMO is IOW at absolute max

 

I did note 1 return which showed a bit of a more northern "jog" - but all the other returns show a much more of a somewhere between N-E and  N-N-E movement

Well all the clouds moving up from the middle of the N coast of Spain Nwards into the Bay of Biscay are heading more towards SW England.

[staplehurst]

Ben Rich focussing thunder risk on the SE tonight....am a bit concerned about the hail risk I must say going down to the coast!! Must mark out a tree I can put the car under if they come too close lol.

Battle scars (unless you don't own the car ha)

Edited July 27, 2013 by staplehurst

[Harry]

Correct.Well all the clouds moving up from the middle of the N coast of Spain Nwards into the Bay of Biscay are heading more towards SW England.

IF the new MCS from Biscay does keep west, violent thunderstorms are still likely to fire on the near continent. Westerly track of the main frontal mess will enhance our chances I suspect

[staplehurst]

Just to burst people who live in the East's bubble, the clouds in the Bay of Biscay containing rain/thunder are heading straight for SW England instead of Central/SE England.

 

You're welcome to that mass of rain and nowt else - keeping an eye on scattered t-storms over France instead 

[Harry]

Battle scars (unless you don't own the car ha)

I do...it's our baby (only had it 6 weeks!!)

[Bobby]

Met O have things further West than most other models such as NAE, NMM. Most shifted east this morning

 

 

 

Clueless??

 

[Harry]

Oh yay, this mahussive anvil we are sat under is finally breaking up...get some heating and a wee bit of instability building

[gpspete]

don't know where http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php?lang=en&subpage_0=10

server is based but looks like they just had a power outage  

 

 

[Harry]

Met O have things further West than most other models such as NAE, NMM. Most shifted east this morning

 

Clipboard01.jpg

 

 

Clueless??

The NAE is a doozy!!!

[azores92]

NMM has barely any precipitation reaching the mainland at all?! Nowcasting is the name of the game

[Guest William Grimsley]

Met O have things further West than most other models such as NAE, NMM. Most shifted east this morning

 

Clipboard01.jpg

 

 

Clueless??

Hopefully the Met Office is correct. We need some rainfall.

[Methuselah]

Oh yay, this mahussive anvil we are sat under is finally breaking up...get some heating and a wee bit of instability building

I certainly is, Harry!

[South coaster]

I'm on the very south coast can people tell me what chances of storms are forecast for today

[Guest William Grimsley]

You're welcome to that mass of rain and nowt else - keeping an eye on scattered t-storms over France instead 

Is that a mass of rain because if so great but no thunder I presume? - ok I will do

I'm on the very south coast can people tell me what chances of storms are forecast for today

For Portsmouth, I think you have a very good chance of storms. Further E, a almost defenite chance of storms. Further W, rain with possible thunder.

Edited July 27, 2013 by William Grimsley

[The Weather Yoda]

_{"Hopefully the Met Office is correct. We need some rainfall."}

 

_{Do we? Why?}

 

[Bobby]

NMM has barely any precipitation reaching the mainland at all?! Nowcasting is the name of the game

 

Nowcasting indeed, models clearly stumbling in the dark! NMM chart and Met Office both for 4pm, couldnt be more different.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Bobby

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Long time no see, SB. How are you keeping these days?

 

There's a very high storm-potential methinks. But, as to who gets what, that's the problem - non one really knows.

Yes all good here. Ok it's been that long I have no idea who you are :-o Name change? Yes I had a baby so went awol for some time. She is just over a year old now so things are beginning to settle down nicely (or were until the last 3 nights of wakings!)

 

South East looks prime spot as always :-D Fun to watch wind if owt does happen. Wonder if they will be tagged on behind the main band or ahead?

[Harry]

I'm on the very south coast can people tell me what chances of storms are forecast for today

There is a lot of uncertainty....the best chances are IoW eastwards. However, most models are disagreeing with track and intensity of any rain/storms so its a case of keeping your fingers crossed!