Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Darren Bown]

ESTOFEX have issued a Level 3 for Benelux!!!

http://www.estofex.org/

That is probably the closest level 3 the UK has ever seen. Nice to see a general thunderstorm warning across the UK, probably for tonight.

[NOAJOA]

just one question, isnt that storm over belgium the system that was meant to come up to southern england?

[Willsy]

we're not in Benelux so all good

wish we were

[ChezWeather]

Another cell is developing North Bay of Biscay, hopefully it targets the UK 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

just one question, isnt that storm over belgium the system that was meant to come up to southern england?

 

No.. it is the stuff in Biscay and that area that is now developing that will hit us later

[AWD]

just one question, isnt that storm over belgium the system that was meant to come up to southern england?

No. There are further developments just getting going now over the Biscay/NW France area that will head towards the UK in a few hours. Edited July 27, 2013 by AWD

[Boro Snow]

just one question, isnt that storm over belgium the system that was meant to come up to southern england?

dont think so im sure its the one just leaving the bay of biscay now i maybe be wrong

[NOAJOA]

No.. it is the stuff in Biscay and that area that is now developing that will hit us later

ok thanks, i was worried for a sec...

[Harry]

MetO forecast text backing right off of thunderstorm activity, angling now for heavy/thundery rain.

Still mentions the 't' word though in the warning detail.

[NOAJOA]

MetO forecast text backing right off of thunderstorm activity, angling now for heavy/thundery rain.Still mentions the 't' word though in the warning detail.

yes i noticed that....they're probably just scared theyll forecast it wrong

[alr1970]

if you run the 24 hour loop on meteox.com, the places that are getting hammered now were getting hammered 24 hours ago. it's almost a perfect loop.

[Buckster]

yes i noticed that....they're probably just scared theyll forecast it wrong

 

at a guess most of the convective action will be east of Brighton and upwards

[NOAJOA]

awww, going to friends in lymington, hampshire this afternoon, havent seen one flash of lightning yet this year, or even last year!

[Supacell]

An interesting few days of thunderstorm potential coming up. 

 

Today is still at this late stage open to doubt as to where and how intense any thunderstorm activity will be and will likely be down to seeing where any storms from Biscay hit the UK and how much intensity it keeps hold of. The fact that the storms this morning have survived into parts of Kent is a good sign that storms are not being killed by the Channel. 

 

 

I will have a best guess as to what is likely to happen today. I think, first off within the blue area there will be a scattering of convective showers and these will contain thunder, lightning and hail. These showers and storms will die away by nightfall.

 

For most of England and east Wales and up into Southern Scotland it looks like some very heavy, torrential rain likely to push northwards and with the amounts being progged it looks likely that flooding could be an issue in a number of areas. This rain will contain embedded thunderstorms and where they occur they will provide extreme rainfall and some thunder and lightning - this is highlighted by the yellow area but I would expect the highest chance of thundery activity would be within the Midlands, East Anglia and CS England. The main risk being from about 15z in the south to early hours of tomorrow morning for Southern Scotland.

 

Within the red area I would expect thunderstorms to both develop and move up from the continent bringing with them the risk of hail up to 3cm in diameter, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts actually a little less problematic than further west as rain may be less persistent but still expect the risk of flash flooding in heavier storms. An isolated tornado could not be ruled out in parts of Kent and Essex early this evening with the slight risk of supercellular storms around this time, in which case conditions could become very severe. Timing wise I think the risk is between 15z and 00z.

 

Tomorrow holds a much bigger risk of storms than today for northern and western areas with widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms breaking out. Although not to the severity of the storms in the next 24 hours they still have the potential to bring torrential rain, hail, gusty winds and CG lightning. Most areas affected by storms today will likely have a respite tomorrow.

 

Monday brings a widespread convective day with more storms and then another plume from the continent looking possible through the middle/end of next week.

Edited July 27, 2013 by Supacell

[Mark Parsons]

Looks as if the development coming out of Biscay is going to hit slightly more west than the last one maybe coming in to the IOW eastwards?

[NOAJOA]

Looks as if the development coming out of Biscay is going to hit slightly more west than the last one maybe coming in to the IOW eastwards?

that would be nice!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Wow, what a monster of a storm that is, dominating Belgium at the minute. Hide in your windmills you Dutchies and pray for your lives!! Tbh its times like this where I just wish us, Belgium and Holland were joined, then we could just simply get in the car and drive till we intercept those beasts. 

Now to keep an eye on that development in Biscay now, that could have our name on it this afternoon hopefully.

[MKN]

Think we need to just fill the channel in EES, often destroys storms heading our way in the summer and warms the air coming off the continent in winter. Add on the higher price it costs to get across we would be better off if driving was an option.

[joggs]

Looks as if the development coming out of Biscay is going to hit slightly more west than the last one maybe coming in to the IOW eastwards?

Im thinking even more westwards when full development gets underway,maybe Cornwall and parts of Devon escape?

[Chris.R]

If only Doggerland was still their hey!

[Mark Parsons]

Im thinking even more westwards when full development gets underway,maybe Cornwall and parts of Devon escape?

It's possible it could develop further west, the satellite images are showing good cloud development to the NW of the cell coming out of Biscay............

[Buckster]

Im thinking even more westwards when full development gets underway,maybe Cornwall and parts of Devon escape?

 

I'd say its still heading to IOW eastwards IMO

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Looks as if the development coming out of Biscay is going to hit slightly more west than the last one maybe coming in to the IOW eastwards?

Where did you see this?

[TwisterGirl81]

Im thinking even more westwards when full development gets underway,maybe Cornwall and parts of Devon escape?

I live in Exeter, Devon, going by the rainfall prediction it will not hit Devon or Cornwall, we will only get a little rain this evening, skimming us 😔 Im a little dissapointed as this happens alot In the winter with the good snow.But you never know, it may budge a little west....Lets hope we all see something the next few days.....I am by no means an expert but is that a 'Bow Echo' in northern France? Wow so close, I wonder if that would ever happen here?

[Buckster]

Where did you see this?

 

not loooking at the radar returns at a guess