Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I just wish storms like that would actually hit the UK, just like they used to in the 70s/80s/90s! For some unexplainable reason they seem to actually swerve to avoid us these days lol. Will be most disappointed to just get rain later, though we do need it admittedly.

Yeah I know, those storms we got Monday night were very good, but some people missed out and they were also homegrown too. And as you say, those motherships of storms used to hit us bang on, it must be influence of the steering upper winds being more Westerly, or SST's being a bad influence and promoting development over hot landmasses (France and the Benelux). That Biscay stuff developing does have thunder and lightning in it though at the moment, so hopefully this will be a continuing trend and intensify later.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Ahh yes...the terror of brown grass

If I don't get rain soon my sheep will be starting on this winter's hay. So yes, rain would be good for agricultural reasons. Personally my garden lives or dies, I don't water and if anything can't make it through extremes then it doesn't get replaced

[Harry]

Looking at the radar the system just passing the BoB and now over Rennes has just taken an easterly track.. how odd... I wonder if the whole thing will go further east and mostly miss the UK like the big bit in the channel right now...

The low is beginning to form so would expect the path of some activity to veer east and west a bit in the coming hours.Feeling warm here this morning with some cumuliform formations trying to develop to my west (still in Chatham at the moment)Looking forward to seeing Nick F's convective forecast Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[cheese]

The French storm..

 

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

[Boro Snow]

the latest from Ian Ferguson 15 mins ago, Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm). also Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

The French storm..

 

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

I must get saving money and get like a flat along that Benelux coast or something. Every year at some point they seem to get these super Mesoscale Convective Complexes bully their way NNE right through them. I mean that system is as big, if not bigger than The Netherlands itself

Edited July 27, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Boro Snow]

The French storm..

 

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

that is amazing

[suffolkboy_]

The French storm..

 

http://www.infoclimat.fr/photolive-photos-meteo-163560-tonnerre-de-zeus.html#photo6

Some the of the images on this link as well look incredible! http://www.keraunos.org/actualites/fil-infos/2013/juillet/orages-26-juillet-2013-france-grele-rafales-inondations-suivi-alerte-temps-reel.html

[cheese]

Pretty much all of Belgium is experiencing this storm - that's how big it is. What I would give to get a storm that covers all of the UK!

[Boro Snow]

Latest UKMO assessment generally much less threatening across S England: much more positive, despite areas of heavy rain/some thunder later

[The Weather Yoda]

If I don't get rain soon my sheep will be starting on this winter's hay. So yes, rain would be good for agricultural reasons. Personally my garden lives or dies, I don't water and if anything can't make it through extremes then it doesn't get replaced

That might be the case in Norfolk, but one thing Devon is not short of is rain...or grass

 

Radar suggests a much more easterly component to the storms in France...looks like we'll have to be happy with home grown storms

[Harry]

the latest from Ian Ferguson 15 mins ago, Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm). also Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France

Well....that's pony!!!!!! Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[Captain Shortwave]

the latest from Ian Ferguson 15 mins ago, Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm). also Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France

So, big fat nothing for me again, I get a day of low cloud, wooooooooooohoooooooooo 

[Neilsouth]

Ever notice that when the met go crazy for storms and or very intense rainful, one to watch e.t.c it hardly happens. Yet when the mention of the odd storm get's thrown about, we get plastered.

[Darren Bown]

the latest from Ian Ferguson 15 mins ago, Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm). also Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France

I presumed that was for the MCS off the SE England at the moment, not the rain tonight.

[Methuselah]

Is it time for a Level-3 Damp Squib Alert, yet? 

[TropicThunder]

Latest UKMO assessment generally much less threatening across S England: much more positive, despite areas of heavy rain/some thunder later

Well there's a surprise! 

[Harry]

Ever notice that when the met go crazy for storms and or very intense rainful, one to watch e.t.c it hardly happens. Yet when the mention of the odd storm get's thrown about, we get plastered.

To be fair, Ian Fergusson indicated towards vivid storms a few weeks ago and there was zilch (and I spent a quiet lonely night in Dymchurch lol). The models are all over the place so every chance it might be mistaken.....hopefully...although would be happy without the hail :DFeels like humidity still on the climb too Edited July 27, 2013 by Harry

[Summer Sun]

Looks like at this stage the first band of rain has stayed over northern France / Belgium and its now moving into Holland

 

Worth keeping an eye on that band of rain which is heading to Jersey

 

It looks like some last minute downgrades have occurred this morning with the first band not moving into the SE like it was expected to this could turn into another one of those close but no cigar events

[Tamara]

the latest from Ian Ferguson 15 mins ago, Very latest assessment reduces widespread thundery threat SE England and downplays high convective gusts; hail expected small (sub 8mm). also Likely too that major MCS will only clip or miss SE. Still heavy rain and some thunder but for sure nothing near as bad as France

July 2007 bears too many very worrying similarities to this. I'm taking nothing for granted at all, as this is too close to call, but in the circumstances that is (relatively) 'good' news (if it happens) as far as I am concerned. I just hope that it gets rid of before the evening is out....

Edited July 27, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Wet'n'Dry]

...although would be happy without the hail

 

 

Nail some plywood sheets over your car, that will stop it getting dented

[Darren Bown]

I thought the first batch that has clipped the SE was supposed to do exactly that, then we should be watching the north of the Biscay area for development today?

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm actually pretty shocked, I would have though there would be good chances for us, especially as the low responsible is still modelled to track right over us

here is the 06z GFS

[robt]

I thought the first batch that has clipped the SE was supposed to do exactly that, then we should be watching the north of the Biscay area for development today?

That was my understanding as well. Think the NW tip of France and the Bay of Biscay is where we're meant to be watching as well.

[weatherobsuk]

I'm still looking for initiation within 9 hours time from now for the midlands northwards, the MCS missing may be somewhat of a damp-squid but GFS is still progging for significant rainfall across most (if not the majority) of central England by tonight.