Convective / Storm Discussion - 27th July 2013

[Evening thunder]

That might be the case in Norfolk, but one thing Devon is not short of is rain...or grass

 

Radar suggests a much more easterly component to the storms in France...looks like we'll have to be happy with home grown storms

 

Here the top half of our lawn is basically dead with no sign of green at all, and also grass in fields for hay or cattle isn't growing much, and various other plants or vegetation could do with some rain so our wildlife and ecosystem would benefit from some now.  Apart from a bit of rain the other night there has been nearly no rain this July here after a very dry June. So I would like us to get some rain shouldn't be a problem if we do anyway.

 

This animation is quite good to get an ides of the general movement of things: http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

 

I think the SW will have better chances at some thunder tomorrow or Monday, and maybe an interesting plume later next week? though it's a bit far off yet.

[Neilsouth]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/city-of-london#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1374897600&zoom=8&lon=-0.08&lat=51.51

 

Looks like later this evening more than anything today?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This 2nd developer, although looking like it will be a Kent clipper like the 1st mothership. The upper steering jet looks forecast to actually become more S-N winds as the day progresses rather than the more SW-NE we are seeing at the minute. I've not lost all faith yet and do think that some of us could get a surprise later in the day. 

[ANYWEATHER]

To be fair, Ian Fergusson indicated towards vivid storms a few weeks ago and there was zilch (and I spent a quiet lonely night in Dymchurch lol). The models are all over the place so every chance it might be mistaken.....hopefully...although would be happy without the hail

Feels like humidity still on the climb too

Harry, these type of situations always tend to go to the wire. Impossible, to give absolute detail, but models are suggesting some intense rainfall along with embedded thunderstorms later. Radar watching is always the best in these situations. ! Lets hope we don't get any power cuts!   

[Supacell]

I went chasing Monday evening and night. This video is a very much cut down version of a 40min plus video of the first storm I encountered - around 9pm near to Langley Mill/Eastwood on the Derbyshire/Nottinghamshire border.

 

I have much more video but it takes time to edit/cut down etc.

 

 

Apologies for any lack of quality. The original file is in .avi format but the total thing is around 7GB. This has been reduced down to make easy upload to youtube.

[Lauren]

According to the local forecast it's supposed to be chucking it down right now. It wants to hurry up and rain today, I haven't watered my veggies because of the expected rain today and my tomatoes are looking thirsty already.

[NUT]

The cloud is building a little up here now but compared to this week the shower risk here today should be low

[Guest William Grimsley]

I just looked at the satellite and a massive band of rain moving S to N through the Bay of Biscay is now heading for SW and Central Southern England.

[nitro_deluxe]

Any slight 'wobble' in thunderstorm predictions and forecasts is almost inevitable, especially this side of The Channel - how many times has that happened before some real fireworks arrive only a matter of hours later.

Unlikely that we'll match proceedings in the likes of The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany etc - still an interesting if not developmental period, in terms of potentially thundery rain or plain old heavy thunderstorms

Enjoy the warm, calm and sunnier bits!

[TEITS]

Harry, these type of situations always tend to go to the wire. Impossible, to give absolute detail, but models are suggesting some intense rainfall along with embedded thunderstorms later. Radar watching is always the best in these situations. ! Lets hope we don't get any power cuts!   

Yep following the models in these situations is a complete waste of time and following the radar is whats required.

 

Having said this I don't have high hopes for much thundery activity in my neck of the woods. Based on the models, radar, sat, experience of these situations im expecting the heaviest rain to hit more central parts i.e central midlands before moving N into N England. Most of the thundery activity will be restricted to the far S especially along the S coasts.

[chionomaniac]

Here is my current suggested path if the French MCS takes the same course - which of course it may not do.

 

 

 

 

All courtesy of the wonder NW extra. 

 

If you haven't got it, then get it!

[Cheshire Freeze]

What I find interesting is the difference between the 18z and 0z GFS ensemble mean prediction for rainfall. As of 18z last night, the event was 24-30 hours out and almost every member went for the same track. All change on the 0z. Just shows that the ensemble suite can be just as useless as the operational it's come from.

Edited July 27, 2013 by CreweCold

[robt]

Its got really really stuffy here at the moment. Wouldn't be surprised if something popped up later.

[Harry]

Its got really really stuffy here at the moment. Wouldn't be surprised if something popped up later.

Same here....humidity on the climb!!!Off to the coast in the next hour....fingers crossed!!

[rich1974]

I'm sure it was going to be raining cats and frogs here this morning....yet again the BBC have messed up, yet another over the top weather forecast from the BBC, cry wolfing again!!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That 3rd batch is the stuff to watch, thats looking like it will definitely hit us.

[Tom Jarvis]

Looks like it is starting to turn more northwards in the last radar returns

[suffolkboy_]

That 3rd batch is the stuff to watch, thats looking like it will definitely hit us.

It's been developing/growing quite well over the past few hours. I understand this is the area which is to develop and affect us.

[cheese]

The Met Office rainfall forecast maps show showers breaking out over E Yorks before moving west across W Yorks this afternoon and then show more widespread showers breaking out across N England.

Edited July 27, 2013 by cheese

[The PIT]

<p>Looking like it's going to much further south and east than predicted this morning. I may not get this evening after all if I go out.</p>

<p>Not much in the way of lightning either at the moment or it's simply off the map.</p>

Edited July 27, 2013 by The PIT

[weatherobsuk]

Peeps here do realize the main 'fun and games' doesn't start until 8pm tonight? more than enough time for surface heating and other factors coming into play, A nice tasty convergence forms from 3pm up until 6pm that will be the spark for today's main central-England event.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Peeps here do realize the main 'fun and games' doesn't start until 8pm tonight? more than enough time for surface heating and other factors coming into play, A nice tasty convergence forms from 3pm up until 6pm that will be the spark for today's main central-England event.

 

Failing that there's always tomorrow

 

[Harry]

Can't believe anyone is writing anything off at this stage...gobsmacking to be honest!!

[Hurricane Debby]

Ever notice that when the met go crazy for storms and or very intense rainful, one to watch e.t.c it hardly happens. Yet when the mention of the odd storm get's thrown about, we get plastered.

 

I said literally the same thing to my partner last night.

[Cornishdave]

I heard that Sunday and Monday were supposed to be very active in terms of showers/thunderstorm for SW England.

i'm hoping it will be, exeter and newton have been starved recently